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Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

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Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby tinfoilxtouch » Sat Jul 26, 2008 4:00 am

I was just thinking about this tonight...

Arod and Pujols aren't even in the top 15 this year in Yahoo. Johan and Peavy aren't even in the top 75. So many guys like Hamilton and Cliff Lee have came out of the blue to become top players. It seems like this season, those who drafted "well" have had zero payoff compared to those who took fliers on guys who were WW prospects. I know the FA market is what settles most leagues, but this season it just seems absurd. Am I the only one totally shocked about the teams in their league that ended up in contention just by picking up these kinds of guys with no solid draft picks to back them up?
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby jdsun1 » Sat Jul 26, 2008 4:36 am

tinfoilxtouch wrote:I was just thinking about this tonight...

Arod and Pujols aren't even in the top 15 this year in Yahoo. Johan and Peavy aren't even in the top 75. So many guys like Hamilton and Cliff Lee have came out of the blue to become top players. It seems like this season, those who drafted "well" have had zero payoff compared to those who took fliers on guys who were WW prospects. I know the FA market is what settles most leagues, but this season it just seems absurd. Am I the only one totally shocked about the teams in their league that ended up in contention just by picking up these kinds of guys with no solid draft picks to back them up?


Yes and No. It seems like you could have a team comprised of only WW/FA pickups and be in the top 3 of your league. Whereas compared to past years guys started hot and then fizzled out. Maybe its too early to tell, but personally I think when you look at the guys who are having career years its not that big of a surprise because they either had great springs(kinsler,alexei ramirez,cantu,ankiel), always had the talent(jham,volquez), or are in a much better position this year then they have been in the past(quentin,mclouth). Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Dempster are another story. :-?

As for the slumpers or guys getting hurt and not living up to the hype...well thats just how the ball bounces sometimes and why fantasy baseball is so unpredictable at times.
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby Yoda » Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:47 am

It's always like this. Playing the free agent market is a pretty significant part of the game.
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby freeling_prideful » Sat Jul 26, 2008 1:22 pm

This season hasn't been THAT unpredictable. Look at the hitters in the top 10 of Yahoo's ranks right now. You have:

Lance Berkman - He's a regular top-25/30 pick who has put up 35/100 numbers for the last decade in any healthy season (which has been most of them). Just two years ago he registered a top 10 offensive season w/ 45/135 or something like that.

Ian Kinsler - All the SABR stuff seemed to indicate that Kinsler's BA was flukishly bad last year, so you basically had a 25/25 guy who should have hit closer to .290 in a lineup where he would score 100+ runs. I traded, rather than drafted, for this guy, but it was pretty clear he was undervalued in drafts. His current rank is crazy and he won't maintain his pace, but he's still a really good ballplayer and the statistics bore this out.

Hanley Ramirez - ADP 2/Rank 3 - He was my 2nd pick in the draft and pretty much has performed exactly as expected. Power going up, steal frequency going down (though he still has the speed). This was exactly what his manager predicted pre-season, so no surprise at all.

Josh Hamilton - The most unpredictable guy in the top 10--obviously, we had only seen half a season's work from him, but he projected out to 35/100 from his Cincy stats last year over 550 ABs. And he scorched the ball all spring, including that ridiculous 12 straight on base streak. And he was transitioning from one great hitters' park to another. I drafted this guy 84th overall, knowing that a .290-35-100 season (my approximate projection) would actually be ranked in the top 40.

David Wright - ADP 4 or 5/Rank 7

Chase Utley - ADP 8 or 9/Rank 8

Jose Reyes - ADP 5 or 6/Rank 9

Matt Holliday - ADP 10/Rank 10

And A-Rod and Pujols, two guys you mention, are at 17 and 30 while having missed time with injuries. So it's not like they completely fell off the map: they are 1st round picks who are still consistently performing like offensive studs when they are healthy. And every year there is a Cliff Lee or Joe Saunders (look at Esteban Loiaza and Derek Lowe's breakout years in 02, or Fausto Carmona and Erik Bedard last year).
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:18 pm

Pitching has been pretty silly. Let's say you took a draft strategy of drafting all the best pitchers earlier.

Take that team and compare it against a team you could've pulled almost completely from the beginning-of-the-season waiver wire. :-°
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jul 26, 2008 4:19 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:Pitching has been pretty silly. Let's say you took a draft strategy of drafting all the best pitchers earlier.

Take that team and compare it against a team you could've pulled almost completely from the beginning-of-the-season waiver wire. :-°

I picked up 50+ saves worth off the WW (Fuentes, Morrow, Broxton, and B. Wilson), as well as Marcum, Bills, Kemp, and Giambi. ;-D
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Re: Has this season seemed too unpredictable?

Postby bleach168 » Sat Jul 26, 2008 6:24 pm

Season isn't close to over. Check back in Sept.
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