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What rookies will go before 10th round

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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:15 pm

I would probably draft Alexei in the 10th.
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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby dclark0699 » Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:18 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:I would probably draft Alexei in the 10th.

If he gets SS eligibility I will be going after him around then in my keeper league (so like round 2).

Even without it, he will put up good numbers for a 2B, just won't help me if he plays there.
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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:23 pm

Longoria, Soto, and Ellsbury if he rebounds from this slump. Longoria's power stroke is really starting to develop and there's going to be people that gamble on him in the 5th or 6th round next year, but his ADP will end up around 75-90. He'll make a solid run at 35+ HR next year if his contact numbers stay up high enough.

Soto's numbers are for real, and despite dropping off on the red-hot first two months, he's still a rookie catcher with an OPS of .851 and plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the middle of a Cubs lineup packed with .300 hitters, not to mention the protection that ARam and DLee will give him. He'll go around the 7th or 8th round, providing a solid mid-round catcher option (as opposed to the huge drop-off after the top 3 at the position in the last few years).

Ellsbury was a lock for the 6th or 7th round a month ago, but now he's fallen off. Still, he was batting .282 a few days before the ASB and has shown great baserunning this year (35 for 42 in SB). If he goes back and shows that this slump is an aberration (20% of his season's K's have been in the last 10 games, otherwise he's had 44 K's in 309 AB), and that he can reliably hit around .270, he might sneak in the 8th or 9th round. .270 BA, 95 runs, and 40 steals would be an average expectation for next year, but he could go as high as .285/110/50+ in those categories. Some people would consider that potential enough to justify reaching for him in the 6th or 7th.

I don't think any other rookies will be drafted before the 10th round, though other players that have a shot in being drafted that high in some leagues are Bruce, Votto, and Chamberlain, but IMO they'd be reaching.
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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby Yoda » Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:02 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Longoria, Soto, and Ellsbury if he rebounds from this slump. Longoria's power stroke is really starting to develop and there's going to be people that gamble on him in the 5th or 6th round next year, but his ADP will end up around 75-90. He'll make a solid run at 35+ HR next year if his contact numbers stay up high enough.

Soto's numbers are for real, and despite dropping off on the red-hot first two months, he's still a rookie catcher with an OPS of .851 and plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the middle of a Cubs lineup packed with .300 hitters, not to mention the protection that ARam and DLee will give him. He'll go around the 7th or 8th round, providing a solid mid-round catcher option (as opposed to the huge drop-off after the top 3 at the position in the last few years).

Ellsbury was a lock for the 6th or 7th round a month ago, but now he's fallen off. Still, he was batting .282 a few days before the ASB and has shown great baserunning this year (35 for 42 in SB). If he goes back and shows that this slump is an aberration (20% of his season's K's have been in the last 10 games, otherwise he's had 44 K's in 309 AB), and that he can reliably hit around .270, he might sneak in the 8th or 9th round. .270 BA, 95 runs, and 40 steals would be an average expectation for next year, but he could go as high as .285/110/50+ in those categories. Some people would consider that potential enough to justify reaching for him in the 6th or 7th.

I don't think any other rookies will be drafted before the 10th round, though other players that have a shot in being drafted that high in some leagues are Bruce, Votto, and Chamberlain, but IMO they'd be reaching.


I disagree on Soto. He is due to crash.
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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:41 pm

What makes you say that? It's not like he came out of nowhere. In his last full minor league season, he hit .353 with 26 HR and 109 RBI in 385 AB. I'm not saying that it guarantees major league success, but it does show he can sustain great production over an extended period of time. His career MLB OPS is .861 in 125 games, with a 162 game average of 26 HR and 88 RBI. His K rate is below average, but by no means awful. His BB rate is decent, and don't forget, he's only 25 and will only develop more patience at the plate from here on out. His K rate in April and May was actually really good, he just got a little brash at the plate after his All-Star nomination. Once his head gets back to normal size he should start hitting better again.

If you want to talk sabermetrics, his BABIP is .339, which is actually a little below the standard BABIP given his 20.1 LD% (the LD% + 15 rule).
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Re: What rookies will go before 10th round

Postby freeling_prideful » Sat Jul 26, 2008 5:41 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:What makes you say that? It's not like he came out of nowhere. In his last full minor league season, he hit .353 with 26 HR and 109 RBI in 385 AB. I'm not saying that it guarantees major league success, but it does show he can sustain great production over an extended period of time. His career MLB OPS is .861 in 125 games, with a 162 game average of 26 HR and 88 RBI. His K rate is below average, but by no means awful. His BB rate is decent, and don't forget, he's only 25 and will only develop more patience at the plate from here on out. His K rate in April and May was actually really good, he just got a little brash at the plate after his All-Star nomination. Once his head gets back to normal size he should start hitting better again.

If you want to talk sabermetrics, his BABIP is .339, which is actually a little below the standard BABIP given his 20.1 LD% (the LD% + 15 rule).


The rule is normally LD + 12, so he should be around .320. That's actually right where he is at right now (not sure where you're getting .339), so his current .274 average is neither particularly lucky or unlucky. I don't expect him to collapse, but it's natural for catchers to fatigue and for their hitting to decline as the season goes on. I think he will end the season around .270, with maybe 25 HR and 80 RBI.

Next season, I would put his value right around where Jorge Posada has been targeted/drafted in the last 5 years, so I agree with your 8th round assessment. He's always a solid mid-round pick who won't hurt you much in average but will get you 25/80 with a little upside for more.
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