What rookies will go before 10th round

[markj11]

Volquez.

Does not qualify as a rookie.

Not technically a rookie but I think in terms of fantasy baseball he is.

My league goes by the MLB definition when keeping rookies.

[Amazinz]

My league goes by the MLB definition when keeping rookies.

Gotcha. I was thinking more from the perspective of the uncertainty of rookies, not in terms of keeper/dynasty formats.

[Another Blown Save]

Longoria
Ellsbury
Fukudome
are the only ones I'd think about drafting in the first 10 rounds.

[dclark0699]

Longoria
Ellsbury
Fukudome
are the only ones I'd think about drafting in the first 10 rounds.

I think I'd pass on Fukudome - he only has moderate power and speed and is hitting .275 at a position where there are plenty of 15-15 or more guys. Skip Shumaker is putting up similar numbers.

[rjforlife]

Fukudome is nowhere near top 10 rounds unless you are expecting a spike in every category. Hes not startable in my 10 team league with 5 OF spots......Hes a good baseball player but essentially worthless to fantasy.

[The Artful Dodger]

I'd probably pass on all those rookies if their ADP lies before the 10th round except for Longoria but I think he'll be reached for.

[sblinyy]

I can see parra going around the 9-11 round area.

[freeling_prideful]

I think with a year of experience under his belt Bruce would be a very good 8th-9th round gamble. His raw talent is such that he could easily hit 35 HR in full-time next season. He's a tough guy to project though, b/c of his huge strikeout rates--it depends a lot on how much he improves on his discipline, which is hard to tell with such a young guy. It could be 3-4 years before he reaches that potential and he'll still only be 24 or 25.

There are several rookies who will have ADP in the top 10, including definitely Longoria, Ellsbury, etc. The only question is whether they will be overvalued. I personally think Longoria will go a bit high but I would start thinking about him after Garret Atkins goes (assuming Atkins stays in Colorado). Unlike Bruce, I think Longoria's absolute worst full season would be .270-25 HR-90 RBI and his ceiling could go much higher.

Ellsbury could also be very under or overvalued depending on how he finishes this season out. He's been in a hideous slump but his peripherals are solid and I see him as a more consistent Shane Victorino. 10 homers/50 steals deserves to be drafted in the top 6 rounds when combined with the counting stats he could accumulate in Boston, so I would definitely take him if he lasted to Rd. 8.

[freeling_prideful]

Oh, and as for Chamberlain:

Yankees and Red Sox tend to be overvalued b/c of their respective massive fan bases. Right now, Chamberlain's control and pitch count problems mean that he's basically an elite 6 inning starter who will never end up with as many wins as you hope (believe me, I've started him every week since his transition and I've learned the hard way). Also, his ERA/WHIP disparity and high strand rate indicate that he's getting a bit lucky right now.

I think he's a 3.50 ERA/1.28 WHIP pitcher next year, with about 9 K/9 IP. He won't win 15 unless he figures out how to get his pitch count down, especially since the Yanks are a declining team on the offensive side.

Personally, I would rather own Chad Billingsley than Joba Chamberlain next year, a fact that probably won't be reflected in their ADPs. Chamberlain would probably start looking attractive right around the end of Rd 9...unless he shows some big improvement for the rest of this year (and his last two starts are a very encouraging sign that he's getting there). Bump him up to Rd 7 if he can show more consistent 7 IP starts.

[jake_harv88]

Maybe this is just me being an Orioles fan but I think Adam Jones has shown enough promise to be considered amongst the top of the sophomore class next year. Think Nick Markakis type sophomore year...