Pogotheostrich wrote:No, I don't think they have the pitching to pull it off.
There pitching has been very solid lately. Mussina, pettite, joba, ponson have all been very good. I don't expect Ponson to keep pitching the way he is now, but you never know. If ponson can keep it up until we get wang or pavano back; I don't see a huge problem with their pitching. When Hughes comes back I really don't expect much out of him.
You are counting on Pavano? Really? And isnt Wang due back in September at the earliest?
Things working against them:
-They can't trade for Tex - Posada is going to hog the DH spot if he comes back.
-They cant trade for Burnett - Jays will not trade in the division
-CC is gone
-If Cashman has his way, the top prospects will be retained
-Fuentes, Marte, Ohman and the rest of the reliever corp have hefty price tags
-Nady and Blake dont seem like great options
I dont see how they improve via the trade market and they do not seem to have any top tier prospects who can make the jump to the majors right now. So the Yanks have to rely on retreads such as Ponson, Mussina, and Pettite. I wouldnt want to hinge my hopes on any of them.
Even as a Red Sox fan, it's been funny to hear everyone discount the Yanks at the ASB, but this year does look a little different to me. I don't think they'll make the big run they're known for and that the Rays will fade with the White Sox and Tigers taking the Central and WC.
Pogotheostrich wrote:No, I don't think they have the pitching to pull it off.
There pitching has been very solid lately. Mussina, pettite, joba, ponson have all been very good. I don't expect Ponson to keep pitching the way he is now, but you never know. If ponson can keep it up until we get wang or pavano back; I don't see a huge problem with their pitching. When Hughes comes back I really don't expect much out of him.
Read that again. You're counting on Mussina, who had a 5+ ERA last season, and Ponson, who last pitched 100+ innings in 2005, when his ERA was 6.21?
Then, those are your stop-gap measures until Pavano comes back (hasn't pitched since 2005) or Wang comes back, who had so much damage they just stuck him straight on the 60-day DL?
Oh yeah.... there is something called a Brett Gardner playing left field for you, Melky is OPS'ing .654, and after his recent hot streak Cano is OPS'ing .694.
If you look at runs scored and runs allowed (the best way to judge future success), the Yankees are about equal to the Rays (NYY ten runs better than TB), while the Red Sox have a substantial lead. So I am going to say maybe they win the WC, but they do not look like they will win the division.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
NWSoxaholic wrote:Even as a Red Sox fan, it's been funny to hear everyone discount the Yanks at the ASB, but this year does look a little different to me. I don't think they'll make the big run they're known for and that the Rays will fade with the White Sox and Tigers taking the Central and WC.
I dont think many are counting them out but they dont seem to have great options in both the pen and the rotation. Add to that the fact that it will be very tough to find someone on the trade market (save Washburn or a couple of other fringe pitchers), and the future doesnt look picture-perfect. They are still the Yanks and can still spend uber amounts of money. But it seems as if they dont have anyone above-average to throw that cash at. And with the Rays potentially adding Fuentes/Bay and the Sox needing another pen arm (Will Ohman?), the Yanks cannot target a big-name (Tex, Holliday) to counter them. Could they acquire a Fuentes or a Bay? Sure. But do they have the prospects these other teams do? Their prospects are probably not as highly rated.
I will never count them out but they sure do seem vulnerable.
Pogotheostrich wrote:No, I don't think they have the pitching to pull it off.
Agreed! With Wang out until late September, I don't think Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson at the back of your rotation is going to help you get it done. In addition, I do not think Pavano will help much when he returns and the verdict is still out on Hughes...plus he is out until September as well.
I must say that I am surprised at the continued lack of faith in the Rays!
I agree as well. Their best pitcher is a rookie. That usually doesn't spell playoffs.
NWSoxaholic wrote:Even as a Red Sox fan, it's been funny to hear everyone discount the Yanks at the ASB, but this year does look a little different to me. I don't think they'll make the big run they're known for and that the Rays will fade with the White Sox and Tigers taking the Central and WC.
I dont think many are counting them out but they dont seem to have great options in both the pen and the rotation. Add to that the fact that it will be very tough to find someone on the trade market (save Washburn or a couple of other fringe pitchers), and the future doesnt look picture-perfect. They are still the Yanks and can still spend uber amounts of money. But it seems as if they dont have anyone above-average to throw that cash at. And with the Rays potentially adding Fuentes/Bay and the Sox needing another pen arm (Will Ohman?), the Yanks cannot target a big-name (Tex, Holliday) to counter them. Could they acquire a Fuentes or a Bay? Sure. But do they have the prospects these other teams do? Their prospects are probably not as highly rated.
I will never count them out but they sure do seem vulnerable.
And they didn't seem vunerable last year? They were 42-43 at the ASB in 2007 and 10 games out of first in the AL East and 8.5 back in the Wildcard...trailing 5 other teams.
Let's get real here. Nobody is saying that they are infallible. It would not surprise me if they missed the playoffs. But let's not act as if they haven't been in this situation before. They've been a poorly structured team for the past several years and have continually made the playoffs. And there are problems with everyone else in the race as well.