I will defend the original poster: He was just pointing out that the disparity that the trade value gap between Markakis and Jones is greater than the performance gap, while acknowledging that a performance gap exists in an absolute sense. I don't see what is wrong with this. In some formats, such as AL-only or deep mixed leagues, exploiting disparities like this in 2 for 1 deals can be really helpful since the player that gets dropped is likely to be extremely marginal.
The real question is whether there really is a gap between perceived trade value and performance, and I can't really answer this.
stumpak wrote:...the trade value gap between Markakis and Jones is greater than the performance gap
That's true, but the relationship between value and performance is hardly linear. To put it in a practical application, I find dollar value in auction leagues to be a numerical assignment for a player's value. Just because Markakis is worth $22 (2008 AAV) and Jones is worth $1 doesn't mean Markakis is expected to finish the year 22 times better than Jones. As a player's stats move further above the mean performance, the standard deviations become more valuable. That's why the price of ARod is more than twice the price of say, Garrett Atkins despite the fact that ARod won't put up twice the statistics of Atkins.
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There is also a premium put on a lower expected variances in stats. The more proven a guy is the more likely you know what you'll get for him. So like any prospect or promising young player there is a chance that Jones ends up becoming what Markakis is or even better. However, he could also still end up being a decent player, but a bust for a uber prospect type. Right now Jones' expected performance isn't as high as Markakis' is and also the expected variance on his performance is higher, causing his value to be even lower.
I do not dispute any of the last two points, but fundamentally potential over-valuation and under-valuation of players of at any tier exists, and it is by exploiting this misalignment that fantasy managers achieve success. In my view it is possible to say that Markakis is valued where he should be and that Jones, although inferior and more risky, is still not valued as highly. Therefore, there a value opportunity to exploit, as there is between any 2 players where one believes that market values are high or low. We all identify these disparities all the time and it is by being more right than wrong that success is achieved.
So I still don't get what the original poster said that is so absurd. He could be castigated for over-valuing Jones if someone disagrees, but there seems to be no logical disconnect in saying that based on is opinion, Jones is undervalued and that Jones + the SP that Markakis would fetch in a trade is more valuable than Markakis + whoever gets waived. My contribution was merely that the ratioanle for these types of deals is even more convincing in a deep league, when the last guy on the roster carries far less value than in, say, a 10 team league.
My first thought when I saw the original post was -- damn, how did I miss the fact that Markakis was having that crappy a season? I was missing the point, and thought Jones's numbers were Markakis. Those two pairs of numbers aren't in the same ballpark. They ain't even the same freaking sport (ok, that's wrong).
Generally I prefer to be the one giving up two good players to get that single player who is better than either. Even if he's not a LOT better. That roster spot you're opening up has a lot of value too. I seldom have a guy on my roster that I don't value a lot, so it's usually impossible to do a 1-for-2 -- I'm gonna value that other guy I'm cutting loose too much.
by jake_twothousandfive » Fri Sep 19, 2008 5:48 pm
Bosy Billups wrote:We'll revisit in a couple months. I'll bring a rag so you can wipe your faces
Jones was out for almost all of August but the gap likely would have still grown by a significantly even had he played. Normally I don't bump posts like this, but I never forgot about this comparision. I wanted to recheck the numbers and thought I might as well share them.
Jones: Avg .270 HR 9 RBI 57 Runs 58 SB 8
Markakis: Avg .302 HR 20 RBI 86 Runs 105 SB 10
It should be noted that Markakis' power basically disappeared in the 2nd half. He hit 14 HRs in the first half. In the second half he has only 6 HRs so far. He also only has 1 SB in the second half. He's usually finishes very strong so the letdown in overall production is puzzling.
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