A definite sell-high. In all likelihood however, you probably won't be able to find somebody good enough to sell high on him. Even though he's due for some regression, it probably won't be that extreme considering his good peripherals.
I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD
dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD
I kind of agree. BABIP does have merit, but I totally agree that the Duchschman is just looks like a tough guy to hit hard. He pitches to contact, but he also takes a very intelligent approach to hitters. It seems like he knows what the hitters are expecting and never gives it to them.
I can't see any way he keeps up the numbers he's posting now, but I see no reason why he can't pitch at a low 3 ERA clip for the rest of the year...
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Chances are very slim that he can keep this up. His FIP is 3.44 and his xFIP is 4.23. At best I would expect him to put up 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year based on his K rate, HR/F, BABIP and GB%
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dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD
A .215 BABIP isn't sustainable, no matter who you are.
Yoda wrote:Chances are very slim that he can keep this up. His FIP is 3.44 and his xFIP is 4.23. At best I would expect him to put up 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year based on his K rate, HR/F, BABIP and GB%
Yup
mweir145 wrote:
dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD
A .215 BABIP isn't sustainable, no matter who you are.
mweir145 wrote:A definite sell-high. In all likelihood however, you probably won't be able to find somebody good enough to sell high on him. Even though he's due for some regression, it probably won't be that extreme considering his good peripherals.
It's definitely a catch-22 of sorts for owners of guys like Duch, Cliff Lee and those sorts. You really end up living and dying with them because most intelligent owners will not pay a doable price when their numbers scream regression. Funny to say, but in a H2H format it's almost better to avoid these type of guys because they might end up hurting you around playoff time.