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Duchscherer BABIP: .215

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Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby acsguitar » Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:17 pm

Is this silly low? Does this pretty much mean he's a super sell high?
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:51 pm

acsguitar wrote:Is this silly low? Does this pretty much mean he's a super sell high?


He's been a sell high for most of the season. Of course don't let him go for Sidney Ponson but if you can get good solid, proven production, do it!
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby mweir145 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:55 pm

A definite sell-high. In all likelihood however, you probably won't be able to find somebody good enough to sell high on him. Even though he's due for some regression, it probably won't be that extreme considering his good peripherals.
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby dipset » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:31 pm

I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:44 pm

dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD


I kind of agree. BABIP does have merit, but I totally agree that the Duchschman is just looks like a tough guy to hit hard. He pitches to contact, but he also takes a very intelligent approach to hitters. It seems like he knows what the hitters are expecting and never gives it to them.

I can't see any way he keeps up the numbers he's posting now, but I see no reason why he can't pitch at a low 3 ERA clip for the rest of the year...
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby Yoda » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:48 pm

Chances are very slim that he can keep this up. His FIP is 3.44 and his xFIP is 4.23. At best I would expect him to put up 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year based on his K rate, HR/F, BABIP and GB%
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby mweir145 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:49 pm

dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD

A .215 BABIP isn't sustainable, no matter who you are.
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby checkers » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:53 pm

I have been offerred Kerry Wood for my Duch or Aj Burnett... who would you let go ? Duch if he's a sell high? he seems to have a good season so far...
Last edited by checkers on Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:57 pm

Yoda wrote:Chances are very slim that he can keep this up. His FIP is 3.44 and his xFIP is 4.23. At best I would expect him to put up 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year based on his K rate, HR/F, BABIP and GB%

Yup

mweir145 wrote:
dipset wrote:I think this whole BABIP is BS...i watched him pitch live the other day...He doesnt strike out that many guys..his stuff is just hard to square up, he throws that slow curve which they are way out in front of and they pop out...Thats the reason for the low BABIP. They hit the ball, JUST NOT HARD

A .215 BABIP isn't sustainable, no matter who you are.

Yup
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Re: Duchscherer BABIP: .215

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:07 pm

mweir145 wrote:A definite sell-high. In all likelihood however, you probably won't be able to find somebody good enough to sell high on him. Even though he's due for some regression, it probably won't be that extreme considering his good peripherals.


It's definitely a catch-22 of sorts for owners of guys like Duch, Cliff Lee and those sorts. You really end up living and dying with them because most intelligent owners will not pay a doable price when their numbers scream regression. Funny to say, but in a H2H format it's almost better to avoid these type of guys because they might end up hurting you around playoff time.
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