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How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby neoforce » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:45 pm

Matthias wrote:...

Note: The math is a little more complicated if it's not actually one-half of the season left.
Then it would be Second Half Avg * Games Left + Current AVG * Games Played / 162 = Ending Average.
Your Ending Average minus your Current Average would give you how many points you can move up.


I think the Math is a bit more complicated than that, since it also depends on ABs. Lets say you are in a deep auction keeper league, and because of the depth, at the beginning of the season everyone has to field some number of platoon or bench players. After a half a year, your AB total includes those guys that aren't getting regular playing time.

Being a keeper league, you complete a bunch of trades sending great low dollar keepers to get back high priced or expiring contracts for players who hit with higer average. But your roster has changed so you have fewer (or none) platoon and bench players. In theory, you should get more ABs in the second half of the season than you did in the first. So your potential gain might be more than 1/2 the difference between your average in the first half of the season and the average in the second half of the season.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby Matthias » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:50 pm

neoforce wrote:
Matthias wrote:...

Note: The math is a little more complicated if it's not actually one-half of the season left.
Then it would be Second Half Avg * Games Left + Current AVG * Games Played / 162 = Ending Average.
Your Ending Average minus your Current Average would give you how many points you can move up.

I think the Math is a bit more complicated than that, since it also depends on ABs. Lets say you are in a deep auction keeper league, and because of the depth, at the beginning of the season everyone has to field some number of platoon or bench players. After a half a year, your AB total includes those guys that aren't getting regular playing time.

Being a keeper league, you complete a bunch of trades sending great low dollar keepers to get back high priced or expiring contracts for players who hit with higer average. But your roster has changed so you have fewer (or none) platoon and bench players. In theory, you should get more ABs in the second half of the season than you did in the first. So your potential gain might be more than 1/2 the difference between your average in the first half of the season and the average in the second half of the season.

Fair enough.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:27 pm

One important thing for roto leagues that nobody has mentioned is that not only can your average go up, but your opponents can go down as well. So make sure to look at the teams that you are competing with for AVG and see if you think they will rise/fall before setting your AVG goal for the 2nd half of the year.....
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby JasonSeahorn » Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:18 pm

Matthias' math lesson might not be exactly right because of the AB numbers as neoforce stated, but what Matthias provides is a nice basic overview of what your team could do to affect AVG.
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