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How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

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How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby kingmike74 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:45 pm

Just wondering the most ground you think can be made up in batting average over the course of the seond half.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:52 pm

Chris B. Young currently has 84 hits in 358 at-bats, giving him a .235 average. If he gets another 330 at-bats and hits in every one of them, he'd be at 414 hits in 688 at-bats, giving him a .602 average. Wouldn't that be great?!

I would generally expect, at the very best, 30 points increase in average from some of the better hitters in a really strong 2nd half. However, it's usually 10-15 points for most slumping first half guys.

Edit: Oh, this thread is about fantasy teams and not fantasy players. Oh well.
Last edited by MashinSpuds on Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby kingmike74 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:56 pm

I am trying to bring my team .270 average up to second. The second place guy is at 279.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby kab21 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:04 pm

You're team will have to hit about .295 from here on out since there is a little bit less than 1/2 a season left.

This will likely take a massive overhaul of your roster if it's currently hitting .270.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby Matthias » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:16 pm

It's pretty easy, actually... about 7th grade math.

Your AVG? It can move up half of the difference of whatever you think you can hit in the second half.

So if you're hitting .270 and you think your team can attain .300, that's .300 - 270 divided by 2, or .30 / 2 = .15.

If you think your team can hit .275, .025. .280? .05. You get the picture. Although it's kind of a color-by-numbers kind of thing.

Note: The math is a little more complicated if it's not actually one-half of the season left.
Then it would be Second Half Avg * Games Left + Current AVG * Games Played / 162 = Ending Average.
Your Ending Average minus your Current Average would give you how many points you can move up.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby kingmike74 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:44 pm

I am looking at guys who underperformed 1st half who might be due for some second half average (Beltre, LaRoche, etc.)
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:45 pm

kingmike74 wrote:I am looking at guys who underperformed 1st half who might be due for some second half average (Beltre, LaRoche, etc.)

You should put this in the first post next time.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby ukrneal » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:53 pm

kingmike74 wrote:I am looking at guys who underperformed 1st half who might be due for some second half average (Beltre, LaRoche, etc.)


To hit over .290 for a full half is not so simple and requires luck (and good palyers - I did it in my Roto league this year, but I have Kinsler, Berkman, and Atkins there, among others, and I don't expect to keep it up). My guess is that realistically, you could gain about 0.005 in average. It will take a fair amount of luck, some second half hot players, or a change in personnel to get more. The question I would ask is - who is on your roster and the 2nd place team? If they outperformed, they may decrease in the second half, thereby reducing the amount you need to gain.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby thedude » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:39 pm

kingmike74 wrote:I am looking at guys who underperformed 1st half who might be due for some second half average (Beltre, LaRoche, etc.)

Look for guys who have had injuries which could possibly have hindered average and you expect to be healthy in the second half.

Juan Pierre might be a good to look at, if he gets healthy.
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Re: How much can one gain in avg. in 1/2 year?

Postby kingmike74 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:00 pm

Pierre crossed my mind but his owner gave up the season and now all his players are just sitting on his roster, he does not even answer emails anymore, I hate owners like that!


I am going to replace Swisher with LaRoche...Thome with Helton (health permitting)...I am up in the air on Ross,Rowand or Frenchy. Frenchy could have a huge second half and a nice average.

Here are some FA's with notorious strong second halfs

Ellis
LaRoche
Winn
J Wilson

Can anyone see Konerko getting hot and having an '06 type second half?
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