Chris B. Young currently has 84 hits in 358 at-bats, giving him a .235 average. If he gets another 330 at-bats and hits in every one of them, he'd be at 414 hits in 688 at-bats, giving him a .602 average. Wouldn't that be great?!
I would generally expect, at the very best, 30 points increase in average from some of the better hitters in a really strong 2nd half. However, it's usually 10-15 points for most slumping first half guys.
Edit: Oh, this thread is about fantasy teams and not fantasy players. Oh well.
Last edited by MashinSpuds on Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's pretty easy, actually... about 7th grade math.
Your AVG? It can move up half of the difference of whatever you think you can hit in the second half.
So if you're hitting .270 and you think your team can attain .300, that's .300 - 270 divided by 2, or .30 / 2 = .15.
If you think your team can hit .275, .025. .280? .05. You get the picture. Although it's kind of a color-by-numbers kind of thing.
Note: The math is a little more complicated if it's not actually one-half of the season left. Then it would be Second Half Avg * Games Left + Current AVG * Games Played / 162 = Ending Average. Your Ending Average minus your Current Average would give you how many points you can move up.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
kingmike74 wrote:I am looking at guys who underperformed 1st half who might be due for some second half average (Beltre, LaRoche, etc.)
To hit over .290 for a full half is not so simple and requires luck (and good palyers - I did it in my Roto league this year, but I have Kinsler, Berkman, and Atkins there, among others, and I don't expect to keep it up). My guess is that realistically, you could gain about 0.005 in average. It will take a fair amount of luck, some second half hot players, or a change in personnel to get more. The question I would ask is - who is on your roster and the 2nd place team? If they outperformed, they may decrease in the second half, thereby reducing the amount you need to gain.