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Preseason expectations vs. 2nd half outcomes... who knows?

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Preseason expectations vs. 2nd half outcomes... who knows?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:39 pm

I know there will be big second half booms by some batters, but there are others where one or two statistics are very off in comparison to what was expected of them before the season started. We already know about the big clubbers (Berkman, McLouth, etc), but let's talk about the underachievers.

BJ Upton has the incredible steals total, but what about the pop? Same goes for Alex Rios... will these two guys hit enough out of the park to warrant their preseason expectations?

Chone Figgins, on the other hand, has only 15 steals and his average is bumpy at best. Chris B. Young has the pop but very minimal steals. Are these high picks going to start tearing up the basepaths?

Then there's Vernon Wells, who is as far away from his 30/30 (or was it 20/20?) preseason prediction can get. Robinson Cano and Delmon Young are also guys that have barely made a blip towards their assumed results.

I'm assuming most of these guys will increase their numbers somewhat at least, with perhaps Figgins having the toughest time to do so given his injuries, but does anyone think any of these guys will go on a tear to get close, if not match, their 2008 predictions?
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Re: Preseason expectations vs. 2nd half outcomes... who knows?

Postby hot4tx » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:52 pm

I try to take it on a case by case basis and try to come up with reasons for the change (luck, early injury that has healed, opportunity not there for some reason, etc). If I think some of the reasons are likely to change then I expect that player to go back closer to what my preseason predictions were. If I can't think of a better reason other than the player isn't progressing or possibly we thought he was someone he's not, or if that reason isn't likely to change (will Chris Young see open basepaths and get a green light hitting low in the order?) then I think they'll be closer to what they are currently doing.

Like anything else in fantasy sports there's no right or wrong except in hindsight, but I try to pick out of few that I think have a better chance of bouncing back and go with them. Likewise by now I've either traded away those I don't think have as good a chance to bounce back or I'll make sure I have some good backups for them in case they never come around.
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Re: Preseason expectations vs. 2nd half outcomes... who knows?

Postby kab21 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:26 pm

MashinSpuds wrote:I know there will be big second half booms by some batters, but there are others where one or two statistics are very off in comparison to what was expected of them before the season started. We already know about the big clubbers (Berkman, McLouth, etc), but let's talk about the underachievers.

BJ Upton has the incredible steals total, but what about the pop? Same goes for Alex Rios... will these two guys hit enough out of the park to warrant their preseason expectations?

Chone Figgins, on the other hand, has only 15 steals and his average is bumpy at best. Chris B. Young has the pop but very minimal steals. Are these high picks going to start tearing up the basepaths?

Then there's Vernon Wells, who is as far away from his 30/30 (or was it 20/20?) preseason prediction can get. Robinson Cano and Delmon Young are also guys that have barely made a blip towards their assumed results.

I'm assuming most of these guys will increase their numbers somewhat at least, with perhaps Figgins having the toughest time to do so given his injuries, but does anyone think any of these guys will go on a tear to get close, if not match, their 2008 predictions?


Some of these are due to injury, some of these guys are underperforming and some of these are due 'what were you expecting'.

Figgins has had a leg injury which slows him down, but did you really think his .330 avg last year was for real? Before last season he hit .267, .290, and .296. He had a .391 BAPIP last year compared to a career number of .339 (implies that he was lucky).

Wells has never stolen more than 17 bases, you shouldn't have expected more than 8-10. And he's been injured also. He's on pace for 23.5HR's over 162 games (not bad, not great).

Cano is a notorious 2nd half performer (batting nearly .050 points higher), but it has been painful since he's on my keeper team.

Upton had a .393 BAPIP which like Figgins suggests that he lucky last year. In addition he had a miserable contact rate. I don't think he goes on a tear where fantasy stats are concerned.

Delmon Young has his issues. Like hitting almost every ball on the ground which is killing his doubles/homers numbers. Until he changes that don't expect a breakout from him.

I don't know what the deal with Rios is. At least he's stealing bases.
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Re: Preseason expectations vs. 2nd half outcomes... who knows?

Postby freeling_prideful » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:16 am

It is true that Upton's strikeout rate remains high (roughly 1 out of every 4 AB). But he also is walking a crazy amount, with almost the same number of walks this year as last year in about 150 fewer ABs. Upton's outstanding plate discipline, a roughly 7:6 K:BB ratio, indicates that he's seeing the ball well--as does his 19-20% LD rate. All in all, I'm not expecting crazy power from him, but he can end the season with 15 HR and 40 SB and he won't be a huge bust.
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