MashinSpuds wrote:I know there will be big second half booms by some batters, but there are others where one or two statistics are very off in comparison to what was expected of them before the season started. We already know about the big clubbers (Berkman, McLouth, etc), but let's talk about the underachievers.
BJ Upton has the incredible steals total, but what about the pop? Same goes for Alex Rios... will these two guys hit enough out of the park to warrant their preseason expectations?
Chone Figgins, on the other hand, has only 15 steals and his average is bumpy at best. Chris B. Young has the pop but very minimal steals. Are these high picks going to start tearing up the basepaths?
Then there's Vernon Wells, who is as far away from his 30/30 (or was it 20/20?) preseason prediction can get. Robinson Cano and Delmon Young are also guys that have barely made a blip towards their assumed results.
I'm assuming most of these guys will increase their numbers somewhat at least, with perhaps Figgins having the toughest time to do so given his injuries, but does anyone think any of these guys will go on a tear to get close, if not match, their 2008 predictions?
Some of these are due to injury, some of these guys are underperforming and some of these are due 'what were you expecting'.
Figgins has had a leg injury which slows him down, but did you really think his .330 avg last year was for real? Before last season he hit .267, .290, and .296. He had a .391 BAPIP last year compared to a career number of .339 (implies that he was lucky).
Wells has never stolen more than 17 bases, you shouldn't have expected more than 8-10. And he's been injured also. He's on pace for 23.5HR's over 162 games (not bad, not great).
Cano is a notorious 2nd half performer (batting nearly .050 points higher), but it has been painful since he's on my keeper team.
Upton had a .393 BAPIP which like Figgins suggests that he lucky last year. In addition he had a miserable contact rate. I don't think he goes on a tear where fantasy stats are concerned.
Delmon Young has his issues. Like hitting almost every ball on the ground which is killing his doubles/homers numbers. Until he changes that don't expect a breakout from him.
I don't know what the deal with Rios is. At least he's stealing bases.