Javier Vazquez - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Javier Vazquez

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Javier Vazquez

Postby XFactah416 » Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:03 pm

Alright, I think it's time to create a thread on Javy.

Is there something wrong with him? His April and May were really solid, but his June and tonight's start leaves me a little bit to worry.

I mean, he still is a very good source for strikeouts, but he's had a lot of mediocre to pretty below average outings for a while now (excluding the July 3rd start against Oakland). Anyone in Chicago mind telling me what's happening with Javy?
XFactah416
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 184
(Past Year: 84)
Joined: 24 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:12 pm

He's a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. People overdrafted him as a "soft ace" and he never really deserved that status (performance wise).

He's locating badly and batters are squaring up against him with relative ease. I'd bench him until he throws a good start and shows something decent.
OneLoveBoomer
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 6184
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 11 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The offseason.

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby cordscords » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:27 am

Just a bit of bad luck. K/BB is still very sharp. His BABIP is just a little high.

I've got no problems with him. I'd buy low during this rough patch.
cordscords
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4346
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 23 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:29 am

cordscords wrote:Just a bit of bad luck. K/BB is still very sharp. His BABIP is just a little high.

I've got no problems with him. I'd buy low during this rough patch.


you know the funny thing about javi is that even in his terrible years his k/bb was always fairly good.
Image

SIGS!

Shane Victorino wrote:“We keep fighting,” Victorino said. “We keep plugging along.”
Snakes Gould
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16051
Joined: 1 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Eternal Bliss

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby kcs261 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:51 am

I'm going to bench the guy. He is killing me. I don't know why I keep sticking with him.
kcs261
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1661
Joined: 11 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby freeling_prideful » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:05 am

Javy is among a group of sabermetric-freak pitchers who have inexplicably bad results in ERA to go along with generally solid WHIP, good walk rates, and high strikeout rates. One common denominator among these sorts of pitchers is that their strike-throwing tendencies are almost too consistent--they don't walk people, but that's b/c they leave a lot of hittable pitches (especially fastballs) around the plate. Vazquez unsurprisingly has a pretty high career LD rate, and check out his year-to-year numbers:

04 - 19.1%
05 - 22.9%
06 - 19.5%
07 - 16.8%
08 - 22.5%

Which one looks like the outlier here? Unsurprisingly, 07 was the only year he went under 4.00 in ERA.

The other common denominator is high FB/GB ratio. Vazquez gives up a ton of homers, more than 1 every nine innings, or essentially almost 1 per start. Homer-happy pitchers tend to be harder to stomach in fantasy b/c they might throw 6 good innings and then give up 2 homers and end up with 4-5 ER on a night where they pitched well except for a few mistakes...whereas a guy like Brandon Webb can make 20 mistake pitches in a given night but most of the time batters still can only get line drive doubles off his heavy sinker.
freeling_prideful
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 495
Joined: 5 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby gatorgreenwell » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:25 am

Bottom line-he's a pitcher with ace-potential stuff who never really gets it done. He's probably weak mentally. He's one of those guys you should just avoid. Someone will always draft him too early.
gatorgreenwell
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 270
Joined: 25 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:45 am

gatorgreenwell wrote:Bottom line-he's a pitcher with ace-potential stuff who never really gets it done. He's probably weak mentally.


:-?
Image

SIGS!

Shane Victorino wrote:“We keep fighting,” Victorino said. “We keep plugging along.”
Snakes Gould
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16051
Joined: 1 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Eternal Bliss

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby ocicat » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:50 am

freeling_prideful wrote:Javy is among a group of sabermetric-freak pitchers who have inexplicably bad results in ERA to go along with generally solid WHIP, good walk rates, and high strikeout rates. One common denominator among these sorts of pitchers is that their strike-throwing tendencies are almost too consistent--they don't walk people, but that's b/c they leave a lot of hittable pitches (especially fastballs) around the plate. Vazquez unsurprisingly has a pretty high career LD rate, and check out his year-to-year numbers:

04 - 19.1%
05 - 22.9%
06 - 19.5%
07 - 16.8%
08 - 22.5%

Which one looks like the outlier here? Unsurprisingly, 07 was the only year he went under 4.00 in ERA.

The other common denominator is high FB/GB ratio. Vazquez gives up a ton of homers, more than 1 every nine innings, or essentially almost 1 per start. Homer-happy pitchers tend to be harder to stomach in fantasy b/c they might throw 6 good innings and then give up 2 homers and end up with 4-5 ER on a night where they pitched well except for a few mistakes...whereas a guy like Brandon Webb can make 20 mistake pitches in a given night but most of the time batters still can only get line drive doubles off his heavy sinker.


Excellent analysis!

I too was wondering about him, thinking he might be a good buy-low candidate. Thanks for all the info!
ocicat
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 25
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: New York, NY

Re: Javier Vazquez

Postby J35J » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:46 am

Others have mentioned it but I'll mention it again. He has good stuff....see K/9 and BB/9 but he is wild within the strike zone and guys take advantage of that. Too be honest its the same problem Meche has. Meche has above average stuff across the board and even when he isn't walking alot of guys he just seems to miss in the wrong spots WITHIN the strike zone and guys take advantage of it. You don't have to walk alot of guys to be "wild". Javy leaves stuff up in zone way to often.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 363)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact