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Can Longoria keep it up?

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Re: Can Longoria keep it up?

Postby Wrangor » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:13 am

kab21 wrote:For this season I would definitely pick Aram. He's got a longer proven track record of playing at this level. Although Longoria has been great at every level, his floor is lower than Aram and the ceiling isn't much higher than Aram's typical production IMO.

I wouldn't be unhappy to have either one though.


I don't understand how you could say Longoria's floor is lower and his ceiling is about the same. Longoria isn't too far away from 40 homers and a .300 average. Aram isn't going to produce those kind of numbers anymore...he is probably a 30 homer/.300 average guy. Longoria has been a top 10 player in all of baseball this past month, and based on his approach at the plate, I think he could get even better. He has a simple swing that generates a ton of power, and he is able to work the count to get to the kind of pitches he can hit.

Go with Longoria no matter what way you spin it, and you will be happy. His floor this year is Aram's ceiling...count on it.
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Re: Can Longoria keep it up?

Postby kab21 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:18 pm

Wrangor wrote:
kab21 wrote:For this season I would definitely pick Aram. He's got a longer proven track record of playing at this level. Although Longoria has been great at every level, his floor is lower than Aram and the ceiling isn't much higher than Aram's typical production IMO.

I wouldn't be unhappy to have either one though.


I don't understand how you could say Longoria's floor is lower and his ceiling is about the same. Longoria isn't too far away from 40 homers and a .300 average. Aram isn't going to produce those kind of numbers anymore...he is probably a 30 homer/.300 average guy. Longoria has been a top 10 player in all of baseball this past month, and based on his approach at the plate, I think he could get even better. He has a simple swing that generates a ton of power, and he is able to work the count to get to the kind of pitches he can hit.

Go with Longoria no matter what way you spin it, and you will be happy. His floor this year is Aram's ceiling...count on it.


Apparently you've never seen a rookie that started hot and cooled off.

This year he has 16 HR's in 80 games. That's 32 HR's in a full season instead of the 40 that you stated. He's hitting .281 and not the .300 that you stated. Last year he hit 26 HR's in 136 games at the MiLB level. I don't think anyone ever considered Longoria a 40HR guy (probably 25-30 from what I remember). Maybe he's Ryan Braun and can sustain his great start or maybe he cools off a little (but still plays well). I'm not expecting him to hit .240 with 6 HR's for the rest of the season, I just don't think he's a lock outproduce Aram.
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Re: Can Longoria keep it up?

Postby raekwon » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:43 pm

kab21 wrote:
Wrangor wrote:
kab21 wrote:For this season I would definitely pick Aram. He's got a longer proven track record of playing at this level. Although Longoria has been great at every level, his floor is lower than Aram and the ceiling isn't much higher than Aram's typical production IMO.

I wouldn't be unhappy to have either one though.


I don't understand how you could say Longoria's floor is lower and his ceiling is about the same. Longoria isn't too far away from 40 homers and a .300 average. Aram isn't going to produce those kind of numbers anymore...he is probably a 30 homer/.300 average guy. Longoria has been a top 10 player in all of baseball this past month, and based on his approach at the plate, I think he could get even better. He has a simple swing that generates a ton of power, and he is able to work the count to get to the kind of pitches he can hit.

Go with Longoria no matter what way you spin it, and you will be happy. His floor this year is Aram's ceiling...count on it.


Apparently you've never seen a rookie that started hot and cooled off.

This year he has 16 HR's in 80 games. That's 32 HR's in a full season instead of the 40 that you stated. He's hitting .281 and not the .300 that you stated. Last year he hit 26 HR's in 136 games at the MiLB level. I don't think anyone ever considered Longoria a 40HR guy (probably 25-30 from what I remember). Maybe he's Ryan Braun and can sustain his great start or maybe he cools off a little (but still plays well). I'm not expecting him to hit .240 with 6 HR's for the rest of the season, I just don't think he's a lock outproduce Aram.
he didnt start off hot at all though. after his awful first month, hes been getting better and better. i dont see him falling back to slumping as he did when he first came up to the majors
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Re: Can Longoria keep it up?

Postby kab21 » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:03 am

raekwon wrote:he didnt start off hot at all though. after his awful first month, hes been getting better and better. i dont see him falling back to slumping as he did when he first came up to the majors


Nowhere did I say that he was going to go into a horrible slump. I've said that he might cool off a little (but still be very good). And the original question was who was going to be better: Aram or Longoria. I think Aram is since Longoria only has 80 games of MLB stats to look at.

As an example of two players that have underperformed after 80-100 games of experience. Neither Matt Kemp or Billy Butler have come close to their stats from their partial seasons last year. Of course neither of them have performed at the level Longoria has either. Or maybe Longoria really will go Ryan Braun on us this year.

Do you think it's that unlikely that Longoria could only hit .282, 10 HR's, 43 RBI's, 38 Runs in his last 70 or so games. Those are still excellent numbers for a rookie. But I think Aram can top them.
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