by freeling_prideful » Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:53 pm
Pence's lack of discipline was always going to hold him back a little bit, though clearly he is underperforming right now. Still, it was fairly clear that last year's average of .322 was a mirage--it required him to post a .377 BABIP, which made him one of my big BA regression candidates this season (the other one was Matt Kemp among OFs, which has held up). He also has some troubling peripherals this year, including a very low LD rate of 15% and a fairly high GB% of 47%.
Of course, Corey Hart is very similar in certain peripherals and is having a strong season, so...
I see Pence being able to be a .280 hitter in the 2nd half, and he'll get around 8-10 HR and a similar number of steals in the second half. He's not going to blow anyone away, but he can be a top-30 outfielder from here on out.