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Re: Brett Myers

Postby wildbill » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:50 pm

lookingforanswers wrote:so...who gets his rotation spot...anyone worth while?

Barring a trade the answer is NO! Odds are it will either be Chad Durbin, currently in the pen, or Happ from AAA. I wouldn't view either as better then a 4th or 5th SP on an average ML pitching staff.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby mrburns » Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:54 pm

wildbill wrote:
mrburns wrote:There is ABSOLUTELY nothing wrong with Myers, provided you start him at home ONLY.

His home ERA of 3.81 is almost a carbon copy of his home ERA last year and in 2006. His last 3 games at home shows him with an ERA of nearly 3.00, a WHIP of nearly 1.00 and 26K's.

There is nothing wrong with him physically. Don't believe me? Look REALLY hard at his home/away splits for the last 3 years and you will see. The guy is a total head case and cannot focus on the road.

Look REALLY hard at his last home start. 4 runs in 7 2/3 IP, 3 HR allowed. And that was vs a team tied for 2nd to last in runs scored in the AL. The splits are deceiving at this point, he was headed in the wrong direction at home too.



Maybe you didn't look REALLY hard at the game. I was there. He pitched fine. 2 of his 3 HR's were given up to some guy name Vlad, both solo-shots. Last time I checked, Guerrero is a decent hitter. His 2 run HR to Aybar was given up in the 8th, when he was completely gassed. He threw 112 pitches.

He retired the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd,5th and 6th, striking out the side in the 5th. In the 4th and 7th, when he gave up his solo-shots to Vlad he retired the other 3 batters in each inning. The only batter to reach base in the 3rd was on a bunt single. Hardly his fault.

So....lets review. He gives up 2 HR's to one of the best hitters in baseball, and another to a guy in the 8th when he is gassed. All in a HR-friendly park. He gives up only 2 BB's and K's 7, and has a WHIP of around 1.00. 74 of his 112 pitches were for K's. Of his 6 hits, 3 were in the 8th inning, all AFTER his 100th pitch, 2 other hits were solo-shots to Vlad, and the other hit was a bunt single. One of the 2 BB's was an intentional BB. How horribly-pitched a game is that?

And LOOK again. His 2008 HOME stats are almost an EXACT carbon-copy of 2007 and 2006. There is nothing wrong with his mechanics, it is all in his head. I suspect the reason he is being sent to AAA is to wake him up and help him focus on the road.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby shoelessjoetara » Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:49 pm

I am going to take a chance and reserve him for now. Maybe a trip to the minors may help him gain some confidence.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby wildbill » Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:22 am

mrburns wrote:Maybe you didn't look REALLY hard at the game. I was there. He pitched fine. 2 of his 3 HR's were given up to some guy name Vlad, both solo-shots. Last time I checked, Guerrero is a decent hitter. His 2 run HR to Aybar was given up in the 8th, when he was completely gassed. He threw 112 pitches.

He retired the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd,5th and 6th, striking out the side in the 5th. In the 4th and 7th, when he gave up his solo-shots to Vlad he retired the other 3 batters in each inning. The only batter to reach base in the 3rd was on a bunt single. Hardly his fault.

So....lets review. He gives up 2 HR's to one of the best hitters in baseball, and another to a guy in the 8th when he is gassed. All in a HR-friendly park. He gives up only 2 BB's and K's 7, and has a WHIP of around 1.00. 74 of his 112 pitches were for K's. Of his 6 hits, 3 were in the 8th inning, all AFTER his 100th pitch, 2 other hits were solo-shots to Vlad, and the other hit was a bunt single. One of the 2 BB's was an intentional BB. How horribly-pitched a game is that?

And LOOK again. His 2008 HOME stats are almost an EXACT carbon-copy of 2007 and 2006. There is nothing wrong with his mechanics, it is all in his head. I suspect the reason he is being sent to AAA is to wake him up and help him focus on the road.

Vlad? Are you serious? He's still pretty good but this year he's nowhere near hitter he used to be. He has 13 HR on the season. That barely ties him with several other players just inside the top 50 this year. He's also batting about 40 pts below his career BA. No this is not the Vlad who was one of the best hitters in baseball, he's merely a bit above average this year.

As for the ballpark did you know it's only 11th in the majors this year in HR rate and 17th in Runs scored on the Park Factor scale (check it out on ESPN). Also don't you think the Phillies having one of the top offenses in baseball might have something to do with inflating the home ballpark numbers some? No matter how you try to massage the numbers 3 HR is still 3 HR. He's just lucky he didn't have men on base. His ERA for the game was over 4.50. If he had nothing left at as you say he should have come out of the game, that he didn't was a mistake of not admitting it to the manager and instead staying in to give up another HR. The Phillies do have one of the top bullpens in baseball why should he have to stay in the game at that point? Paint it however you want the end result is all that matters. It wasn't nearly as good as previous home starts.

Note that I didn't say it was as bad as his road games I said "he was headed in the wrong direction at home," pertaining to his last start. 3 HR in a game illustrates that pretty clearly no matter who hit them. You want to throw out the HR because of who or when they were hit, fine then throw out his game vs Volquez at home and call it a fluke. The point of that statement is you can't selectively take the good and ignore the bad. BTW, you don't see their other starters at the same rate at home this year. Phillies pitchers at home this year: Moyer - 7 HR, Eaton - 4 HR, Kendrick - 5 HR, Hamels - 9 HR, Myers - 11 HR. I guess since HR hit by above average players in decline don't count so Myers is really at the same rate as Hamels??? or do you want to throw out other HR too?

And comparing his stats this year with last year? You're joking right? He pitched almost all as a RP last year and he's only started this year. Those are completely different situations, you can't realistically compare them as if they're the same.

I've been harping on the home road splits for Myers myself, but his last home start most definitely deviated from that to some extent. Better to send him to AAA now then to see him further regress at home too.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby mrburns » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:37 am

WildBill,

If you can't see that giving up 2 solo HR's to Vlad and shutting down the entire rest of the team is a good game pitched then I can't help you. It isn't his fault Uncle Charlie can't recognize when a pitcher is gassed. And when was the last time you saw a pitcher raise his hand to say, "coach, I'm tired, take me out?" Pul....lease....

And by the way, CBP was 2nd in park factor for HR's over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined. And it is calculated by how the AWAY team hits. How good the home team hits has nothing to do with it.

And finally, his ERA at home this year? 3.81
Last year at home? 3.76
The year before at home? 3.73

Statistically, that is the same. In fact, one could argue he is actually pitching better at home this year, as relievers generally obtain better ERA's becuase they don't throw 112 pitches a game and get gassed, thereby giving up late runs and inflating their ERA's.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby wildbill » Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:22 pm

mrburns wrote:WildBill,

If you can't see that giving up 2 solo HR's to Vlad and shutting down the entire rest of the team is a good game pitched then I can't help you. It isn't his fault Uncle Charlie can't recognize when a pitcher is gassed. And when was the last time you saw a pitcher raise his hand to say, "coach, I'm tired, take me out?" Pul....lease....

And by the way, CBP was 2nd in park factor for HR's over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined. And it is calculated by how the AWAY team hits. How good the home team hits has nothing to do with it.

And finally, his ERA at home this year? 3.81
Last year at home? 3.76
The year before at home? 3.73

Statistically, that is the same. In fact, one could argue he is actually pitching better at home this year, as relievers generally obtain better ERA's becuase they don't throw 112 pitches a game and get gassed, thereby giving up late runs and inflating their ERA's.

Yeah and for whatever reason you just aren't comprehending that the Vlad this year is not the same old Vlad, he's had a noticeable decline this year. Yes he's still pretty good, but he's not great this year. He only has 11 HR off of other pitchers halfway through the season so he's on pace for 22 vs all other pitchers. You're telling me that's the same old Vlad?

As for pitchers saying they have nothing left, it does happen now and then. Still you're trying to say that because of when he gave up the runs they don't matter. They count the same on the scoreboard no matter when they're given up.

On the matter of park factor you're seriously going to tell me old data from previous seasons is more relevant then this year's data? How do you know that those years didn't have lower 1st half then 2nd half values? If full previous year data was so important in this case how do you explain Myers being affected far worse then the other Phillies starters? I mean you keep throwing out previous year data that just doesn't jive with the data accumulated so far this season.

You keep brining up Myers stats from last year. I'll say it again since you still don't understand....You can't compare his stats from last year to this year because he was a RP last year and a starter this year. Those are 2 very different situations.

Finally you totally ignored something else I said. I agree with you on Myers home/road split numbers until his last home start. The only dispute is related to that start. Again 3 HR in one start is not a good trend no matter how you try to massage the data.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby mrburns » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:03 pm

WillBill,

We'll just have to agree to disagree on his last start. I think it was a pretty good one, with a two mistake pitches made to Vlad, and you think it wasn't a good one. I think my above analysis of the game speaks for itself.

I'd also argue that yes, park factors from 2006 and 2007 combined ( a total of 162 games) have much more relevance than 40 games from this year.

And I disagree that "I can't compare last year to this year because Myers was a reliever last year, and is a starter this year." Of course I can compare. My point is that his home stats ARE completely the same both years, and that he is the same pitcher at home....REGARDLESS of whether he starts or relieves. He stinks on the road this year as a starter, and he also stunk on the road last year as a reliever, with a 5.04 ERA on the road.

For what it is worth, I'll provide more info for you guys from a VERY inside source. You won't find this in the Philly papers:

There's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes here. First, he initially turned down the assignment (to AAA) and requested instead a return to the bullpen during a meeting Monday evening with Gillick and Manuel. I believe his dad and his agent got involved and Gillick was told he would only agree to the assignment if he was given a complete physical, including an MRI. His dad says he hasn't been the same since he took that line drive dome shot earlier in the season, is not eating right and has lost 15 pounds. Word is he will have a physical tomorrow. I assume it will be in Philly
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby wildbill » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:14 pm

mrburns wrote:WillBill,

We'll just have to agree to disagree on his last start. I think it was a pretty good one, with a two mistake pitches made to Vlad, and you think it wasn't a good one. I think my above analysis of the game speaks for itself.

I'd also argue that yes, park factors from 2006 and 2007 combined ( a total of 162 games) have much more relevance than 40 games from this year.

And I disagree that "I can't compare last year to this year because Myers was a reliever last year, and is a starter this year." Of course I can compare. My point is that his home stats ARE completely the same both years, and that he is the same pitcher at home....REGARDLESS of whether he starts or relieves. He stinks on the road this year as a starter, and he also stunk on the road last year as a reliever, with a 5.04 ERA on the road.

For what it is worth, I'll provide more info for you guys from a VERY inside source. You won't find this in the Philly papers:

There's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes here. First, he initially turned down the assignment (to AAA) and requested instead a return to the bullpen during a meeting Monday evening with Gillick and Manuel. I believe his dad and his agent got involved and Gillick was told he would only agree to the assignment if he was given a complete physical, including an MRI. His dad says he hasn't been the same since he took that line drive dome shot earlier in the season, is not eating right and has lost 15 pounds. Word is he will have a physical tomorrow. I assume it will be in Philly

Yeah I guess we'll have to disagree.

On the subject of park factor all kinds of stuff changes from year to year, like teams makeups (both home and visiting). Also, as I said and you completely ignored, perhaps the previous year park factors are skewed toward the 2nd half of the season when the weather warms up and is more favorable for home runs. By all means, find out what the first half/second half park factors are for previous season (I don't know where to look). Without that further breakdown there's no way you can say the first half this year isn't close to the first half norm and I can't say it is. So not knowing that breakdown previous year data is not reliable for comparison to the first half this year.

Yes, you can compare last years numbers and this years for Myers, anyone can make any comparison about anything. The problem is you can't make any meaningful conclusions because the mindset of pitching as a reliever is completely different from that of starting pitchers. For one thing the same pitcher will usually pitch differently depending on if they're starting or relieving and it was well documented last year in the media that that was the case with Myers last year. I remember reading and hearing on tv that he mostly relied on his fastball and one other pitch in relief. Furthermore a RP doesn't have to worry about pacing or saving stamina for later in the game as demonstrated by Myers airing out out in relief last year, also well documented in the media last year. So yes you can make a comparison, just not one that's meaningful.

A finally, the mysterious inside source? How is anyone supposed to trust and unnamed source if it can't be corroborated? I'm not saying you made it up, but i see it as suspect at best since there's no way to verify it with the lack of information you provided, and since you waited so long to post it and said you can't read it anywhere. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and time to provide a way to prove its authenticity.
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Re: Brett Myers

Postby mrburns » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:25 pm

Bill,

I understand what you are saying about the difference between starters and relievers. Certainly, they pitch differently. Brett has even admitted he pitches different as a reliever. My point, though, is that he is equally effective regardless of what role he pitches in. So...for the Phillies, it really shouldn't matter in what role he pitches....he's been equally effective at home in both roles. The trick is, figuring out why only at home.

And as for my source for the quote above, you'll have to take my word for it. I can't reveal his name. I know someone's word has little value in a forum like this, but know that he is a credible source who has covered the Phillies for over 25 years. You might be able to figure it out from there.
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