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How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

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How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby TomBrooklyn » Sat Jun 28, 2008 12:33 am

How come some Relief Pitchers get Wins while some other good relief pitchers don't?
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Jun 28, 2008 12:43 am

For the same reason as when you flip a coin and sometimes you get heads and other times you get tails...

...of course I'm sure some sabr geek will bring VORP or some crap into it... :-b
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Jun 28, 2008 12:53 am

It's a combination of being used in certain situations, your teams ability to score late/come from behind, and luck.
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:30 am

Out of curiousity hort, do you take into account wins for RP when your making preseason rankings, or do you find it too much of a crap shoot?

I'll usually just project them close to what they've done in the past, sans outliers...
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Yoda » Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:37 am

Inukchuk wrote:Out of curiousity hort, do you take into account wins for RP when your making preseason rankings, or do you find it too much of a crap shoot?

I'll usually just project them close to what they've done in the past, sans outliers...


I do not account for Ws for pitching period.
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby jackie hayes » Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:46 am

Yoda wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:Out of curiousity hort, do you take into account wins for RP when your making preseason rankings, or do you find it too much of a crap shoot?

I'll usually just project them close to what they've done in the past, sans outliers...


I do not account for Ws for pitching period.

At all? I mean, I can understand ignoring past wins completely, but I do think about the effect the rest of the team will have on wins when comparing (say) Matt Cain and Yovani Gallardo.
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Yoda » Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:56 am

jackie hayes wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:Out of curiousity hort, do you take into account wins for RP when your making preseason rankings, or do you find it too much of a crap shoot?

I'll usually just project them close to what they've done in the past, sans outliers...


I do not account for Ws for pitching period.

At all? I mean, I can understand ignoring past wins completely, but I do think about the effect the rest of the team will have on wins when comparing (say) Matt Cain and Yovani Gallardo.


Not really. Good pitchers tend to give themselves a chance to win every outing. Look at guys like Volquez and Lincecum who are on completely crappy teams. They have more Ws than most pitchers on great teams.
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:04 am

Yoda wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:Out of curiousity hort, do you take into account wins for RP when your making preseason rankings, or do you find it too much of a crap shoot?

I'll usually just project them close to what they've done in the past, sans outliers...


I do not account for Ws for pitching period.



I usually give a wins projection, then check standard deviations from the mean in all 5 cats with and without my win score. If there's a big discrepancy between the 2, I'll usually bump those pitchers down a few pegs.

I do it more to confirm my own suspicions than anything else...
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby TomBrooklyn » Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:32 pm

So is an RP collecting Wins completely random and unpredictable, or is it predictable that some RPs will be more likely to get into the kind of situations where they they are positioned to garner Ws?
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Re: How Come Some RPs Get Wins and Others Don't?

Postby Field » Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:53 pm

TomBrooklyn wrote:So is an RP collecting Wins completely random and unpredictable, or is it predictable that some RPs will be more likely to get into the kind of situations where they they are positioned to garner Ws?


See:

bigh0rt wrote:It's a combination of being used in certain situations, your teams ability to score late/come from behind, and luck.



Some relievers are likely to get more wins than other relievers due to the managers use of said player, but just because it's more likely (i.e. probable) doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Just to revisit stat line from the past, I remember having Keith Foulke on my fantasy team when he was the closer for the A's in 2003. He has 9 wins and 43 saves 8-o , now those are fantasy numbers.
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