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Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby Field » Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:09 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
Yoda wrote:K is the most important skill for a pitcher. You are seriously smoking something fierce if you think otherwise.


So Greg Maddux is AWFUL then, right? :-?

I don't even know where to start with this comment, because I just don't get how you could possibly think this. The K is reasonably important, but by no means is it the most important stat. The fact is, pitchers can find many different ways to get batters out and you are giving bad luck way too much credit. Even if a pitcher has TERRIBLE luck, if he's getting batters to make very weak contact, he'll still get the guy out most of the time. There's nothing wrong with throwing consistently solid pitches and having batters make weak contact, as long as batters aren't hitting the ball hard. I would regard WHIP as a far more important stat than Ks any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.


Again, most important doesn't mean it's the be all and end all. No one is taking away from what Maddux has accomplished (he did K his fair share of batters in his prime - he has over a 6k/9ip for his career). Maddux is also an outlier so he's really not a good example. He probably had the best control in the history of the game during his peak seasons.

Stikeouts have a direct, positive impact on WHIP. Therefore strikeouts are a leading indicator when projecting WHIP due to the BABIP philosophy. Anytime a batter puts a ball into play (no matter how weak the contact) there is a chance he'll get on base which makes the strikeout the best possible outcome for a pitcher based on probabilities. A runner will almost never reach base on a strikeout unless the ball gets away from the catcher on a swinging third strike. The batter has a tremendously higher chance to reach base even on the most weakly hit ball.
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby mweir145 » Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:31 pm

I think it's probably a combination of K/BB ratio and HR/9. If you have good ratios there, you'll be a good pitcher.
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby kcs261 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:31 am

mweir145 wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:
kcs261 wrote:CC Sabathia shouldn't be left off this list. After his beginning of the year problems, he has jetted to the top of the pitcher rankings and has been virtually unhittable.


i guess we should mention paul byrd and jake westbrook next right? go right on down the indians rotation ;-D

I have no problem with including Sabathia in the discussion for best pitcher in MLB (though it is still Santana, and has been for quite awhile). Cliff Lee, though...no way.


People, people, people. Throw out career numbers. Who gives a flip. If the season stopped now, Cliff Lee is the AL Cy Young Winner. Love it. Like it. Or leave it. He is the AL Cy Young. And there are no signs that he is slowing down. The guy has an ERA in the 2's. He has 11 Ws. He is striking out almost a hitter per inning while showing great control by only walking 15.

You don't have to like it. You can rub your eyes and look at those numbers again in disbelief. You can predict and hope for a blowup. But the facts are the facts. Cliff Lee has the best numbers in baseball right now and we are halfway through the season. And instead of slowing down, he is picking it up.

All of you who are dissing on Cliff Lee either have your head in the sand or you are pissed that somebody else picked up him up off WW. Either that or you simply look at 2007 when he was hurt and disregard what he did in 2005 and 2006. Boo to all of you. :-t

Further, remember when Chris Carpenter suddenly emerged in St. Louis and won a Cy Young (when he had crappy numbers in Toronto)? How about the year Estaban Loaiza emerged as a stud all of a sudden in 2003? Or how about the year Dontrelle Willis had in 2005 -- that nobody could believe?

Career years happen and sometimes guys break out. You can deny it is happening here due to sour grapes or due to whatever other reason causes your negativity. But a career year for Cliff Lee is in full effect -- and he is one of the top pitchers in baseball at the moment. You don't have to like it. You can be pissed because (a) you didn't see it coming and somebody else in your league did when they saw those early starts and jumped on him before you; or (b) you traded him away for a box of cracker jacks because you are a negative person who didn't believe what was happening right before you very eyes. ;-)

But right now, I take Lee over all kinds of other pitchers who aren't getting it done. Lee is mowing hitters down and putting me at the top of my league. Other people in my league, and others on this forum, can whine and cry about it all day long. But I will gladly take my league champsionship with Lee's numbers just like I grabbed the champsionship in 2005 with Dontrelle Willis mowing hitters down. A championship is a championship. ;-D

The skill in being a great fantasy manager is not in predicting that a guy will be good when almost everybody agrees. The skill in being a great fantasy manager is being able to look at a guy like Lee, see his numbers (ERA, WHIP, K/BB, W/L) and knowing that what he is doing is not a fluke.
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby Yoda » Sun Jun 29, 2008 2:00 am

fun fact: kcs261 is related to Cliff Lee :-D
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 2:02 am

kcs261 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:i guess we should mention paul byrd and jake westbrook next right? go right on down the indians rotation ;-D

I have no problem with including Sabathia in the discussion for best pitcher in MLB (though it is still Santana, and has been for quite awhile). Cliff Lee, though...no way.


People, people, people. Throw out career numbers. Who gives a flip. If the season stopped now, Cliff Lee is the AL Cy Young Winner. Love it. Like it. Or leave it. He is the AL Cy Young. And there are no signs that he is slowing down. The guy has an ERA in the 2's. He has 11 Ws. He is striking out almost a hitter per inning while showing great control by only walking 15.

You don't have to like it. You can rub your eyes and look at those numbers again in disbelief. You can predict and hope for a blowup. But the facts are the facts. Cliff Lee has the best numbers in baseball right now and we are halfway through the season. And instead of slowing down, he is picking it up.

All of you who are dissing on Cliff Lee either have your head in the sand or you are pissed that somebody else picked up him up off WW. Either that or you simply look at 2007 when he was hurt and disregard what he did in 2005 and 2006. Boo to all of you. :-t

Further, remember when Chris Carpenter suddenly emerged in St. Louis and won a Cy Young (when he had crappy numbers in Toronto)? How about the year Estaban Loaiza emerged as a stud all of a sudden in 2003? Or how about the year Dontrelle Willis had in 2005 -- that nobody could believe?

Career years happen and sometimes guys break out. You can deny it is happening here due to sour grapes or due to whatever other reason causes your negativity. But a career year for Cliff Lee is in full effect -- and he is one of the top pitchers in baseball at the moment. You don't have to like it. You can be pissed because (a) you didn't see it coming and somebody else in your league did when they saw those early starts and jumped on him before you; or (b) you traded him away for a box of cracker jacks because you are a negative person who didn't believe what was happening right before you very eyes. ;-)

But right now, I take Lee over all kinds of other pitchers who aren't getting it done. Lee is mowing hitters down and putting me at the top of my league. Other people in my league, and others on this forum, can whine and cry about it all day long. But I will gladly take my league champsionship with Lee's numbers just like I grabbed the champsionship in 2005 with Dontrelle Willis mowing hitters down. A championship is a championship. ;-D

The skill in being a great fantasy manager is not in predicting that a guy will be good when almost everybody agrees. The skill in being a great fantasy manager is being able to look at a guy like Lee, see his numbers (ERA, WHIP, K/BB, W/L) and knowing that what he is doing is not a fluke.

Haha, this isn't about fantasy numbers or the 2008 season. This is about discussing the best pitcher in baseball. To even be in that discussion, a pitcher needs to have a very high level of talent and a long track record of success. Cliff Lee has neither. And yes, this is exactly the topic where career numbers come into play.

Oh, and I don't think Chris Carpenter can be compared to the fluky seasons of Loaiza, Willis, and Lee. That was just a guy with a high level of talent (the only one among them drafted in the 1st round) who just wasn't able to put it all together until much later than expected (and this was partially due to injury). He was certainly among the best pitchers in baseball when he went down last year.
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 2:03 am

Yoda wrote:fun fact: kcs261 is related to Cliff Lee :-D

Sure looks like it. :-{
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jun 29, 2008 3:57 am

[quote="kcs261"People, people, people. Throw out career numbers. Who gives a flip. If the season stopped now, Cliff Lee is the AL Cy Young Winner. He is the AL Cy Young.

But the facts are the facts. Cliff Lee has the best numbers in baseball right now and we are halfway through the season.

Either that or you simply look at 2007 when he was hurt and disregard what he did in 2005 and 2006. Boo to all of you.

But right now, I take Lee over all kinds of other pitchers who aren't getting it done.[/quote]

Career numbers mean nothing? Great advice.

Let me know when 15 starts gets you a CY Young?
E Santana or Saunders might disagree on the AL CY Young. Both have Lee beat in pitching win shares.

Volquez
Lincecum
Sheets
Saunders
E Santana

have more pitching win shares. Volquez has been the best pitcher so far.

Lee in 2005, had a 111 era+
in 2006, 103 era+

Nothing too great there.

The thread is best pitcher when healthy. Not fantasy, not a 15 game run. Lee isn't in the ballpark. This is great stuff. Keep it up.
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby tinfoilxtouch » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:03 am

NZ Eff wrote:
No, getting outs is relevant. Ground out, fly out, strike out it doesn't matter. In fantasy sure because K's are a category used in most every league but not real baseball.


This is obviously the statement of someone who hasn't done a lot of study of sabermetrics and the factors pitchers can actually control.

Basically, a pitcher cannot control whether a ball in play is an out or not. The most he can really do is control if it becomes a groundball or flyball. Flyball/HR ratios are pretty steady, so if you're a "flyball" pitcher you sure as hell better K a ton of guys.

Basically, K's, HR allowed and walks are all that play into the success of a pitcher (in that order).
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby kcs261 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 10:38 am

Yoda wrote:fun fact: kcs261 is related to Cliff Lee :-D


Nah, I just see all this bad advice being given out to people to trade Cliff Lee for a bunch of junk. The overall consensus is that he can't keep it up. I think you are all leading young fantasy baseball players in the wrong direction. The numbers tell me that there is no reason to believe a downturn will happen this season. As to the post about Chris Carpenter being touted highlly, you all forget how highly Cliff Lee was touted in 2005 and going into 2006. He gets hurt and has one bad season in 2007 and you all act like he was never thought of as anything. Your memory is short. You must all have dementia or alzheimers. ;-)
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Re: Any doubt left on the best pitcher in MLB? (when healthy)

Postby Yoda » Sun Jun 29, 2008 10:43 am

kcs261 wrote:
Yoda wrote:fun fact: kcs261 is related to Cliff Lee :-D


Nah, I just see all this bad advice being given out to people to trade Cliff Lee for a bunch of junk. The overall consensus is that he can't keep it up. I think you are all leading young fantasy baseball players in the wrong direction. The numbers tell me that there is no reason to believe a downturn will happen this season. As to the post about Chris Carpenter being touted highlly, you all forget how highly Cliff Lee was touted in 2005 and going into 2006. He gets hurt and has one bad season in 2007 and you all act like he was never thought of as anything. Your memory is short. You must all have dementia or alzheimers. ;-)


I was just busting your chops. If you see my previous posts on Lee, then you know that I am more optimistic than most. However, there are way too many better pitchers for Lee to be considered as the best pitcher. If he can keep this up for a couple of years then I'll bet people will change there mind.
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