I'd have to check, but I believe he was around a .270-ish hitter in the minors. Not awful, but Howie Kendrick, he ain't. Now, some of this might just be bad luck, but we have to face the fact that he just isn't going to hit for a high avg--but he will put up some nice power and speed numbers at 2B.
His babip is right around .200. He's been unlucky. I was hoping for something around .270 this year, but I'd settle for .250 now. He walks alot so that helps some, but I'm banking on him getting hot. He's been a solid 2B with his low avg, if he can put together some sort of hot streak he can be very good!! I get a stiffy thinking about him getting hot, and maybe that is my problem. Maybe I just think he's better than he really is. But if he's gonna sink my ship, I'm going down with it!!
pangbones wrote:His babip is right around .200. He's been unlucky. I was hoping for something around .270 this year, but I'd settle for .250 now. He walks alot so that helps some, but I'm banking on him getting hot. He's been a solid 2B with his low avg, if he can put together some sort of hot streak he can be very good!! I get a stiffy thinking about him getting hot, and maybe that is my problem. Maybe I just think he's better than he really is. But if he's gonna sink my ship, I'm going down with it!!
he is a good player, but i doubt he ever hits for a high average. but he does walk a good deal, so that helps, but i cant put him on higher than a .270 type guy with good power and a ton of speed.
He'll have a huge year one sooner or later, but he's been unlucky too much to call it unlucky. BABIP is telling but some guys just can't place a ball. I concede that the league average probably rectifies that a little, but if you're going to hit for close to .300 consistently, a player needs to know what to do with a pitch and I don't know if Weeks can do that at a major league level. The power and speed will always be there but I don't know if he has hitter skills. But, some year he'll hit around .270-.280 because those balls start falling. That's the thing with BABIP, you're one of three things... unlucky, lucky or a good hitter and sometimes good hitters are placed in the lucky category. When Weeks has a lucky year he's going to be gold because the power and speed are definitely there.
1) This season he has a line drive rate of under 14%. A rough formula is that BABIP should be LD% + 12%, so that adds up to an expected BABIP of under .260. He's at .232 now, so it's not like he's been THAT unlucky. Even with his expected BABIP, he'd be a .220 hitter.
2) Weeks has a high rate of IF/FB. In other words, he has a loopy uppercut swing which produces a fair share of pop-ups--15% of his flyballs are pop-ups every single year, which isn't very good (in contrast, check out Michael Young and Derek Jeter, who consistently maintain a rate of around 5-6%). People who hit more pop-ups tend to have lower BABIPs, since they are putting the ball in play but in a way that is virtually guaranteed to be an out.
Overall, I am very skeptical that Weeks will ever learn to consistently hit for average. Like an earlier poster said, one of these years he might get lucky and hit .280. But that's a pretty terrible reason to draft him--"Oh, if this is the year where he enjoys a mathematically improbable run of luck, then this will be a great pick!"
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by BigTex24 » Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:40 pm 
Maybe I just think he's better than he really is. But if he's gonna sink my ship, I'm going down with it!! 
