Maris09 wrote:Only the difference in the (+ money) and the (- money) is never that much. The most it will be is around a .20-.30 cent difference. IE: KC -270 / STL +240 or KC -140 / STL +120
It never gets as high as a full dollar difference.
Yes, with the MLB, it never gets that far apart, though I was just throwing numbers out there.
There are some crazy juices in other sports, though. I've seen Roger Federer at like -6000 in the first round of a grass tournament. Have to put up $600 just to win $1. The NBA money lines get into the -300s as well.
Take it all in, Aussie. Next week we'll talk about parlays.
PS - Not a big fan of any of the games today. No MLB action for me. Though, the Orioles should win outright at home vs Houston, and probably stay under the 9.5 o/u. The -170 juice on Buehrle is too much for me to bet against Gozelanny tonight...
PSS (or is it PPS?) - the actual KC/StL line tonight is Brian Bannister (+117) @ Braden Looper (-127). No thanks.
Betted on ARZ to win and they are definitely taking care of business. Thanks for the site guys!
Baltimore also took care of Houston and the under hit. I threw money on that as a 2-game parlay at the last second. It was too tempting.
bigh0rt wrote:Hasn't been mentioned yet, but should be noted, that gambling on sports tends to desensitize a lot of people, and ruin the enjoyment of watching sports. I was at a point 2 years ago where I couldn't watch a game on TV if I didn't have money on it, regardless of the sport -- I just didn't care unless I had cash riding on it. It's a serious addiction, and the worst part of it is, the only way to feed it is by losing. You don't get that rush when you win; only when you lose, especially when you shouldn't. So as a disclaimer, please be careful. Keep it fun, keep it sexy, and keep it classy.
That's spot on. I dabbled in sports betting throughout my high school years and felt the same way. There's a horse track down the street from my house, so I'll stick to the ponies every now and than.
I was just thinking about a trend that could be very profitable if you track it. It has to do with bullpen usage. If a team's closer and one of their primary set-up men pitch back-to-back days, then bet against them the next day assuming the team's starter is not averaging 7 innings per start. Makes sense right?
Example: June 17th-Doug Brocail throws 21 pitches in 2/3 of an innings for HOU, Jose Valverde throws 19 pitches in 2/3 of an inning for HOU June 18th-Doug Brocail throws 22 pitches in 1 inning for HOU, Jose Valverde throws 15 pitches in 1/3 of an inning June 19th (Tomorrow)-HOU has Shawn Chacon pitching, he is averaging 5.2 innings per start this season, meaning that if he leaves with the lead, the Astros will need 3 innings of relief without using their closer and primary set up man.
BAL is -130 tomorrow, according to this system (which has not been tested), that is a good play.
Another play: June 17th-Mariano Rivera threw 15 pitches in 1 inning. June 18th-Mariano Rivera threw 11 pitches in 1 inning. Edwar Ramirez threw 29 pitches in 2 innings. June 19th (Tomorrow)-NYY has Joba on the hill who has thrown 5 innings or more only once in his career (6 last outing).
SD is +180 tomorrow, a bargain if you ask me.
Yet another: June 17th-Jamey Wright threw 13 pitches in 1 inning, Eddie Guardado threw 23 pitches in 1 inning, CJ Wilson threw 11 pitches in 1 inning. June 18th-Jamey Wright threw 16 pitches in 1 inning, Guardado threw 16 pitches in 1 inning, CJ Wilson threw 28 pitches in 1 inning. June 19 (Tomorrow)-TEX has Scott Feldman on the hill who is averaging 6 innings per start, without 3 of their key relievers available I'd take ATL tomorrow.
j24jags wrote:BAL is -130 tomorrow, according to this system (which has not been tested), that is a good play.
This is a trap line, if you ask me. It slid to +185 overnight, and could slide further before the first pitch. Vegas is trying to entice people to take it. Joba is -225 for a reason on the other side. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole, due to the amount of juice on the Yankees, but what I can tell you is that I would be in complete and utter disbelief if the Yankees lose this game.
Here's an interesting line. Greg Smith (-110) @ Doug Davis (-110). Even though Davis has been bad, I see little reason that Vegas would juice Smith into the minus, on the road, against that lineup. At first glance, that line is telling me that Oakland is going to win that game, because they have little business having a line like that in this game. Vegas doesn't want people taking Oakland.
We'll have to see what the 1.5 lines are later in the day, and see if any more movement occurs before game time, but there look like a few games could be worth putting small bets on today. Want to see the o/u when they come out, too.
WyldStallyn wrote: i would be willing to take some chances to help me pay off cursed sallie mae (shakes fist).
I'd think twice. Gambling to pay off debt more often than not leads to more debt you'll never be able to dig out of. Gambling should be a hobby not a way to make ends meet.
I agree. Notice in my first post I said I used to pay my bills with gambling money. It definitely needs to be used with extra money, in a recreational fashion. It's a lot easier to lose everything than it is to make even one cent, in the long run.
Hasn't been mentioned yet, but should be noted, that gambling on sports tends to desensitize a lot of people, and ruin the enjoyment of watching sports. I was at a point 2 years ago where I couldn't watch a game on TV if I didn't have money on it, regardless of the sport -- I just didn't care unless I had cash riding on it. It's a serious addiction, and the worst part of it is, the only way to feed it is by losing. You don't get that rush when you win; only when you lose, especially when you shouldn't. So as a disclaimer, please be careful. Keep it fun, keep it sexy, and keep it classy.
thanks for the advice guys. im not talking about running out and putting my savings on one game. just doing small bets in particularly favorable matchups, to help me gain a few bucks here and there. pretty much exactly what i do with spot starting. i know a lot of people get stuck in the habit of betting, but i know i wont. i am way to cautious to go overboard with something like this. hell, i wont even bet any $$ for several weeks just cause i want to practice picking games to make sure ill be somewhat successful.
and theres the added fact that my girlfriend would kick my behind if i started risking a lot of money. shes a social worker who deals with addictions
and as to watching the games, i hardly have time to watch any right now anyways. it sucks, but im still able to play fantasy at least
I like to bet the run line because you are almost always getting plus money on the favorites. That is the beauty of betting baseball. If you like the dog in a game play the money line and if you like the favorite give the 1.5 runs. I had a bad beat last night when Greg Zaun homered in the 8th for TOR. I had Sheets and -1.5/+165.
I've been burnt too many times on the run line with my team winning by 1, so I don't do it anymore, ever. The only sport where I take money lines regularly (exclusively) is baseball. Today I like Dustin McGowan (-128) @ Snell (+108), Lannan (-101) vs. Padilla (-119), Davies (EVEN) vs. Lincecum (-120), Webb (-150) @ Hernandez (+130), and my dog will be Vazquez (+125) @ Dempster (-145).
I haven't gambled in a few years, but when I was in college my friend and I would bet a small amount ($20-$50) on parlays. We rarely won, which is why parlays are total sucker bets, but the few times we did the payout was huge. There are parlay calculators that tell you how much you would win based on all of the lines added together. We would parlay between 3 and 7 games together. Like I said, it's a stupid bet, but if you want a lot for a $20 bet it's a lot of fun, especially if you make it all the way till the last game of the day.
I've never used any of the online gambling sites, but aren't they being cracked down on? Also, even if it's safe and the chance of getting caught is minimal, isn't it technically illegal to make bets on the "offshore" gambling sites?
bigh0rt wrote: You don't get that rush when you win; only when you lose, especially when you shouldn't.
oh its so true. there'd be days i would win big and not even really care, but that day when you go 0-4 you feel like your world is crashing and that it couldnt get worse, even if it isnt that much money.
i tried to get one of threads going before but it died out. hopefully we can keep it going. im just seeing it now for the first time.