Baseball Gambling Thread - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Baseball Gambling Thread

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:28 pm

I take these bets called multis, which put your money on one game which goes onto another and then onto another like a snowball effect.

I have moved from "picking from gut" (which was moderately successful) to using teams OPS vs either LHP or RHP - whichever they are facing that day.

I made two OPS-based bets so far, one got 4 games out of 5, and the other got 4 games out of 4 for a collect of $50.

Does anyone else have a formula that they use, and if so does it have a good strike rate?
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:53 pm

In college, I would pay every one of my bills from April through August on nothing but gambling on baseball.

You have to be able to read the lines. Almost every day Vegas will give one away with how they juice the game. A bad road team with their crap starter on the hill vs someone's Ace at home and they aren't nearly the + they should be, or are EVEN or occasionally sometimes even favored -- that's Vegas trying to get people to not take the game. There's also the slam dunks, like taking a -280 against a +180, which should hit the vast majority of the time (but you're going to be paying quite a bit more than you're winning).

Are you betting the 1.5 Run lines or just picking winners? The latter is worlds easier than the former. Also, if you're taking Over/Unders, the crazy high lines like 9+ tend to hit a ton on the over, especially if there's extra juice on them, in my experience, and if you want a good prop bet find a game between two light hitting teams or with two Aces facing one another and bet that no runs will be scored in the 1st inning.

If you have an account with Bodog (http://www.bodoglife.com), you can go into match ups and see how the teams have trended against each other (who has covered, when the over has hit, so on and so forth). It's never as simple as just using one piece of data (as in your example) to make a decision. If you want to make money you've got to be willing to do the research and put the time in.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:01 pm

bigh0rt wrote:In college, I would pay every one of my bills from April through August on nothing but gambling on baseball.

You have to be able to read the lines. Almost every day Vegas will give one away with how they juice the game. A bad road team with their crap starter on the hill vs someone's Ace at home and they aren't nearly the + they should be, or are EVEN or occasionally sometimes even favored -- that's Vegas trying to get people to not take the game. There's also the slam dunks, like taking a -280 against a +180, which should hit the vast majority of the time (but you're going to be paying quite a bit more than you're winning).

Are you betting the 1.5 Run lines or just picking winners? The latter is worlds easier than the former. Also, if you're taking Over/Unders, the crazy high lines like 9+ tend to hit a ton on the over, especially if there's extra juice on them, in my experience, and if you want a good prop bet find a game between two light hitting teams or with two Aces facing one another and bet that no runs will be scored in the 1st inning.

If you have an account with Bodog (http://www.bodoglife.com), you can go into match ups and see how the teams have trended against each other (who has covered, when the over has hit, so on and so forth). It's never as simple as just using one piece of data (as in your example) to make a decision. If you want to make money you've got to be willing to do the research and put the time in.



Wow I'm going to sound really dense, but I haven't heard of some of the stuff you are talking about.
What is a -280 and a +180? What is juice?
I have a NZ TAB account that I've had since I was 17 (tab.co.nz), and I only pick head 2 head/winners.
I am very interested in learning all the extra data I need ;-D
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby WyldStallyn » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:12 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:In college, I would pay every one of my bills from April through August on nothing but gambling on baseball.

You have to be able to read the lines. Almost every day Vegas will give one away with how they juice the game. A bad road team with their crap starter on the hill vs someone's Ace at home and they aren't nearly the + they should be, or are EVEN or occasionally sometimes even favored -- that's Vegas trying to get people to not take the game. There's also the slam dunks, like taking a -280 against a +180, which should hit the vast majority of the time (but you're going to be paying quite a bit more than you're winning).

Are you betting the 1.5 Run lines or just picking winners? The latter is worlds easier than the former. Also, if you're taking Over/Unders, the crazy high lines like 9+ tend to hit a ton on the over, especially if there's extra juice on them, in my experience, and if you want a good prop bet find a game between two light hitting teams or with two Aces facing one another and bet that no runs will be scored in the 1st inning.

If you have an account with Bodog (http://www.bodoglife.com), you can go into match ups and see how the teams have trended against each other (who has covered, when the over has hit, so on and so forth). It's never as simple as just using one piece of data (as in your example) to make a decision. If you want to make money you've got to be willing to do the research and put the time in.



Wow I'm going to sound really dense, but I haven't heard of some of the stuff you are talking about.
What is a -280 and a +180? What is juice?
I have a NZ TAB account that I've had since I was 17 (tab.co.nz), and I only pick head 2 head/winners.
I am very interested in learning all the extra data I need ;-D


this is very interesting. ive never been a gambler, but i would be willing to take some chances to help me pay off cursed sallie mae (shakes fist). should start a thread dedicated to good bets each day, like the spot starting thread
WyldStallyn
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 1927
Joined: 26 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby Tavish » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:13 pm

AussieDodger wrote:What is a -280 and a +180?

The money line. IE a game between the Royals and Cardinals might read KC -280 / StL +180. So you would have to bet $280 on the Royals to win $100. If you bet $100 on the Cards you would win $180. Something with that big of a spread on the line says the Royals are clearly the favorite to dominate the Cards.

What is juice?
It means all sorts of things. Usually it is the amount of money the house/bookie makes on the bet (ie how much they hold back from your winnings).
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11070
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:17 pm

If you guys want to learn all about gambling on sprots without losing money, do I what do and sign up for Centssprots.

http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=108218

They give you a free 10 cents, and once you reach like 20 bucks or more you can withdraw your money, up until 300 dollars.

Personally, I look at the pitching matchu7ps, and then i look at the best hitters on each team and check their periphs versus the other team and pitcher.
Image
Yanks_Baby
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 1704
Joined: 23 Apr 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby Maris09 » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:19 pm

Tavish wrote:IE a game between the Royals and Cardinals might read KC -280 / StL +180. So you would have to bet $280 on the Royals to win $100. If you bet $100 on the Cards you would win $180. Something with that big of a spread on the line says the Royals are clearly the favorite to dominate the Cards.


Only the difference in the (+ money) and the (- money) is never that much.
The most it will be is around a .20-.30 cent difference.
IE: KC -270 / STL +240
or KC -140 / STL +120

It never gets as high as a full dollar difference.
Maris09
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 2152
(Past Year: 8)
Joined: 3 Jun 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:23 pm

+ or - is how much on the dollar you get.

+120 mean if you bet a dollar and win, you'll win a dollar and 20 cents, while -120 means, you have to bet a dolalr and 20 cents to win one dollar.
Image
Yanks_Baby
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 1704
Joined: 23 Apr 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby Tavish » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:26 pm

Maris09 wrote:
Tavish wrote:IE a game between the Royals and Cardinals might read KC -280 / StL +180. So you would have to bet $280 on the Royals to win $100. If you bet $100 on the Cards you would win $180. Something with that big of a spread on the line says the Royals are clearly the favorite to dominate the Cards.


Only the difference in the (+ money) and the (- money) is never that much.
The most it will be is around a .20-.30 cent difference.
IE: KC -270 / STL +240
or KC -140 / STL +120

It never gets as high as a full dollar difference.

Right, I was going with hort's example. Plus it is more representative of how dominant the Royals are over the Cards. ;-D
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11070
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Baseball Gambling Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:27 pm

Tavish wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:What is a -280 and a +180?

The money line. IE a game between the Royals and Cardinals might read KC -280 / StL +180. So you would have to bet $280 on the Royals to win $100. If you bet $100 on the Cards you would win $180. Something with that big of a spread on the line says the Royals are clearly the favorite to dominate the Cards.

What is juice?
It means all sorts of things. Usually it is the amount of money the house/bookie makes on the bet (ie how much they hold back from your winnings).


American betting seems very different to NZ betting.
NZ betting = very basic. You put on 5 dollar, we give you 1.95 x 5 dollar. Deal? :-D

Image

:-D
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Laicekl and 10 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Oct. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact