I think it's very difficult to project his future with certainty, as he just hasn't pitched (as a starter) enough to provide a baseline for him.
If he continues with an ERA in the 3's for the rest of this year, and he picks up where he left off next year (big "if", but you know what I mean), then I'd be more inclined to hop on the top 25 bandwagon.
For now, like Weir, I'm just enjoying the ride...
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His wins have come against cle, laa, bal, bos, det, nyy and ari. He's faced some solid lineups and currently sports a 2.08 era. The A's are giving him some very good run support as well. As some other posters have pointed out, you may not be able to get much for him in a trade as he is not the most well-known pitcher. So continue to enjoy his low era and good run support as long as his somewhat questionable health holds up.
I've got a huge man crush on Duke, as an A's fan I always felt very good when he'd step on the mound in the 8th inning to hold onto a lead. I've seen him take the mound with a 1 run lead, based loaded, no outs, get a strikeout and then a double play to end the threat several times, dude's got skills, that being said I wasn't very happy to read his "news" this morning:
Jun 18 Duchscherer felt a twinge in his surgically repaired hip in a second inning at-bat, the Associated Press reports. Recommendation: From that point on, he was ordered not to swing when he was up at the plate, and thus struck out looking four times.
Another great outing by Duke today, shutting down a hard hitting Florida lineup. Even after his DL stint he is now qualified for the ERA title by sporting a 1.99 (only for two more games till his IP isn't high enough, but still impressive).
His is a situation where I think arm fatigue is going to come into play, whether or not his health holds up. He's been smart to rely on a slower fastball with more movement this year, but given that he's throwing the ball slower, he's relying on pinpoint control. Whether or not he can continue to pitch near this level is contingent on him not handing out free passes, but since he's not blowing anybody away with his heater and has never pitched this far into a season, you gotta wonder if it will hold up.
He's been fortunate to get a lot of DPs this year as well, and those won't continue to come either.
I posted an article I read about him in the Sell-high/buy-low forum that has more info.