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Volquez's Sabermetrics

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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby freeling_prideful » Tue Jul 15, 2008 1:51 am

flloyd wrote:
flloyd wrote:Right now Volquez's stats are:

BABIP: .258 vs. team's .317
HR/F: 5.2% vs league's 11% and team's 14%
LOB%: 85.7% vs. league's 72% and last year's best (Hamels) 78.7%

His FIP so far has been 2.94, xFIP (assumes league average HR/F) has been 3.53.

I feel that it is safe to assume that if he continues to pitch at his same level his ERA should be in the 3.5 range and probably higher since he pitches in a home stadium that inflates HRs more than average. If he tires down the stretch and isn't able to bring the heat as much (since he's averaging over 100 pitches per game) then we can expect his peripherals to deteriorate and his ERA to explode even more.


Interesting to note now that we're at the all-star break that since June 11th, Volquez's line is: 36.7 INN, 3 W, 1L, 30 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. He's definitely regresses but somehow manages a 3 and 1 record with his 3.9 ERA (how in the world has Haranfg got so screwed by his teammates?).


Interestingly enough, I've watched 2 of those starts (against Washington and against the Brewers) and he pitched a lot better than his statistics say in that line you gave. He has consistently kept the ball low in the zone, which is always necessary to stay successful in the big leagues. Take a look at the Gameday for his start vs. Toronto, where he got SHELLED...basically the reason that his last month's stats have been so bad...and a ton of hard-hit extra-base hits came on changeups and fastballs at the knees. He was basically very unlucky that game.

I believe that his BABIP will go up to around .310, that his HR/FB will increase, and that his LOB% will stay around 74-76% (he strikes out a lot, so he can get away with more baserunners, unlike guys who pitch to contact and give up more sac flies and whatnot). I think his walk rate drops, as the Volquez I've watched actually seems to have good command of his pitches (if he was really as wild as people say, he would leave a lot more balls up in the zone than he does). All in all, I'm guessing his second half ERA ends up around 3.2, and he continues to strike out 10/9 IP, finishing the season as a top 5 starting pitcher.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:21 pm

freeling_prideful wrote:
flloyd wrote:
flloyd wrote:Right now Volquez's stats are:

BABIP: .258 vs. team's .317
HR/F: 5.2% vs league's 11% and team's 14%
LOB%: 85.7% vs. league's 72% and last year's best (Hamels) 78.7%

His FIP so far has been 2.94, xFIP (assumes league average HR/F) has been 3.53.

I feel that it is safe to assume that if he continues to pitch at his same level his ERA should be in the 3.5 range and probably higher since he pitches in a home stadium that inflates HRs more than average. If he tires down the stretch and isn't able to bring the heat as much (since he's averaging over 100 pitches per game) then we can expect his peripherals to deteriorate and his ERA to explode even more.


Interesting to note now that we're at the all-star break that since June 11th, Volquez's line is: 36.7 INN, 3 W, 1L, 30 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. He's definitely regresses but somehow manages a 3 and 1 record with his 3.9 ERA (how in the world has Haranfg got so screwed by his teammates?).


Interestingly enough, I've watched 2 of those starts (against Washington and against the Brewers) and he pitched a lot better than his statistics say in that line you gave. He has consistently kept the ball low in the zone, which is always necessary to stay successful in the big leagues. Take a look at the Gameday for his start vs. Toronto, where he got SHELLED...basically the reason that his last month's stats have been so bad...and a ton of hard-hit extra-base hits came on changeups and fastballs at the knees. He was basically very unlucky that game.

I believe that his BABIP will go up to around .310, that his HR/FB will increase, and that his LOB% will stay around 74-76% (he strikes out a lot, so he can get away with more baserunners, unlike guys who pitch to contact and give up more sac flies and whatnot). I think his walk rate drops, as the Volquez I've watched actually seems to have good command of his pitches (if he was really as wild as people say, he would leave a lot more balls up in the zone than he does). All in all, I'm guessing his second half ERA ends up around 3.2, and he continues to strike out 10/9 IP, finishing the season as a top 5 starting pitcher.


Was Volquez very unlucky, or are teams finally starting to realize that Volquez keeps the ball down? If Volquez is unlucky, then that's fine, but if teams are starting to realize that he only pitches low in the zone, then Volquez needs to make some adjustments. Two starts really isn't enough to tell you anything. I'll be interested to see how his next couple starts go...
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Yoda » Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:10 am

I'll go with the 3.50 ERA projection with a K/IP and a 1.25 WHIP for the rest of the season. He's keeping the ball down which is good but he isn't going to keep up his strand rate and should give up more HRs than he has been.

Bold prediction: Cueto will match him in the second half.
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