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Volquez's Sabermetrics

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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby IllinoisBandit » Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:03 pm

I think you guys might be wrong. He really hasn't had a single bad start where he looked hittable at all. He just had his worst start of the year and if my memory serves me correct he had a no-hitter through 4 and could have easily given up no runs at all if Votto didn't "Ole!" his way out of a groundball - which was somehow scored a hit by the home scorekeeper.
Those sabermetric stats are almost meaningless when solid contact is hardly ever made against a pitcher. It's not like he's getting lucky with line drives finding gloves - he literally goes whole games without a batter squaring the ball.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby flloyd » Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:42 pm

Niner Country wrote:Just to let you know, this is where I got my info and no it doesn't let you check previous years as you will plainly see.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/

When I saw him among the league leaders among luckiest pitchers in 3/4 categories it made me pretty weary. I just acquired him in a relatively good deal and now will try to flip him for a better one. Already got my trade rejected for a 1 for 1 with Sabathia though.


Here you go:

Code: Select all
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&qual_filter=1&season_filter[0]=2008&league_filter[0]=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=xFip&direction=ASC&page=1
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Jun 12, 2008 12:13 am

Just remember to look at Volquez going forward. This guy is young, and likely does not have the arm strength to go a full year. He might continue to dominate for another month and a half, but when his pitches start to elevate due to fatigue the home runs will come.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Jun 12, 2008 12:31 am

RAmst23 wrote:Just remember to look at Volquez going forward. This guy is young, and likely does not have the arm strength to go a full year. He might continue to dominate for another month and a half, but when his pitches start to elevate due to fatigue the home runs will come.


He threw 178.2 innings last year.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Yoda » Mon Jun 23, 2008 12:50 pm

Volquez's incredible season continues. Seems like the community is divided almost equally on whether he could sustain his success or not. It doesn't seem as if he will completely fall apart but he should see some regression. THT has a good article on him so check it out.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby CruiseJD » Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:52 am

Yoda wrote:Volquez's incredible season continues. Seems like the community is divided almost equally on whether he could sustain his success or not. It doesn't seem as if he will completely fall apart but he should see some regression. THT has a good article on him so check it out.


Thanks for the link. Very interesting article.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby The Cow » Tue Jun 24, 2008 12:24 pm

IllinoisBandit wrote:I think you guys might be wrong. He really hasn't had a single bad start where he looked hittable at all. He just had his worst start of the year and if my memory serves me correct he had a no-hitter through 4 and could have easily given up no runs at all if Votto didn't "Ole!" his way out of a groundball - which was somehow scored a hit by the home scorekeeper.
Those sabermetric stats are almost meaningless when solid contact is hardly ever made against a pitcher. It's not like he's getting lucky with line drives finding gloves - he literally goes whole games without a batter squaring the ball.


Good post Bandit. Having watched Volquez quite a bit this year, opponents just are not making good contact against Volquez. Volquez is filthy thats all you guys need to know. Flush the sabermetrics B.S. with this guy. This forum has been saying sell high on Volquez since April. The Cow has said, keep this guy he is legit since April. Lesson learned here is listen to The Cow.

The reason Volquez walks so many batters is the same reason batters can not hit him, the reason is the flat out filthy movement on his pitches. Volquez does not throw anything straight. Volquez is for real deal with it. Even the naysayers are saying 3.50 ERA, yeah so? Is 3.50 bad? A lot of the sell "highs" in April and May are looking like awful trades for the people who traded away Volquez.

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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby NorthSider2 » Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:25 pm

Where has this guy come from? I had a chance to pick him up but didn't know if he would stay solid :-°

There any chance this guy is slowing down?
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby CruiseJD » Tue Jun 24, 2008 4:37 pm

NorthSider2 wrote:There any chance this guy is slowing down?


Based on the article posted, he is likely to continue pitching well due to the movement of his pitches and the speed differences in his pitches. Many of his stats are not out of line with his historical performance. One big factor will be if he can continue to keep the ball in the lower part of the strike zone. His ERA and WHIP are likely to rise due to luck factors. His K/9 ratio may lower if he tires. However, that doesn't mean he won't continue to be a solid pitcher.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby flloyd » Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:37 pm

flloyd wrote:Right now Volquez's stats are:

BABIP: .258 vs. team's .317
HR/F: 5.2% vs league's 11% and team's 14%
LOB%: 85.7% vs. league's 72% and last year's best (Hamels) 78.7%

His FIP so far has been 2.94, xFIP (assumes league average HR/F) has been 3.53.

I feel that it is safe to assume that if he continues to pitch at his same level his ERA should be in the 3.5 range and probably higher since he pitches in a home stadium that inflates HRs more than average. If he tires down the stretch and isn't able to bring the heat as much (since he's averaging over 100 pitches per game) then we can expect his peripherals to deteriorate and his ERA to explode even more.


Interesting to note now that we're at the all-star break that since June 11th, Volquez's line is: 36.7 INN, 3 W, 1L, 30 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. He's definitely regresses but somehow manages a 3 and 1 record with his 3.9 ERA (how in the world has Haranfg got so screwed by his teammates?).
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