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Volquez's Sabermetrics

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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby The G.O.A.T. » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:31 pm

0 reason he shouldn't have a sub 3 era? Ummm anytime you have a GB% of 53 and a K/9 > 10 you are doing something right. That combination is a devasting weapon.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:34 pm

The G.O.A.T. wrote:0 reason he shouldn't have a sub 3 era? Ummm anytime you have a GB% of 53 and a K/9 > 10 you are doing something right. That combination is a devasting weapon.

With a 4.4 something BB/9 and a dirt low HR/FB rate and BABIP...

GB and K/9 aren't the only stats out there... In fatc, they are pretty much the only sabermetric stats that shed favorable light on Volquez.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby The G.O.A.T. » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:42 pm

Really they aren't the only stats out there? You mean there are more? Wow and to think I had no idea that there was this large wide world of stats out there. :-°

When you don't let the ball get hit into the air you are going to create a lower HR rate. I don't see too many HR's hit off a GB. Also a .270 BABIP isn't awful by any means. Watch his starts and you can look and see batters aren't comfortable in the box against them. Like hitters not all pitchers will conform to have a uniform BABIP.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby flloyd » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:47 pm

Right now Volquez's stats are:

BABIP: .258 vs. team's .317
HR/F: 5.2% vs league's 11% and team's 14%
LOB%: 85.7% vs. league's 72% and last year's best (Hamels) 78.7%

His FIP so far has been 2.94, xFIP (assumes league average HR/F) has been 3.53.

I feel that it is safe to assume that if he continues to pitch at his same level his ERA should be in the 3.5 range and probably higher since he pitches in a home stadium that inflates HRs more than average. If he tires down the stretch and isn't able to bring the heat as much (since he's averaging over 100 pitches per game) then we can expect his peripherals to deteriorate and his ERA to explode even more.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby acon44 » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:47 pm

Here's the thing, and I think especially people who haven't done fantasy baseball for longer probably don't realize as much. It is MUCH harder for a control specialist type of pitcher to succeed in baseball. Laffey was doing well because his control was very very sharp during that run. The problem is that he throws 86-90 mph on average. So while his control is pinpoint, he can shut teams down, as can anybody really can who can paint corners. The thing is that there just are not many Maddux/Glavine type pitchers out there. As soon as these guys lose their control for a period of time, and that 88mph fastball is left over the plate, I think you can imagine what happens when a ML hitter gets a piece of it. A power arm like Volquez, can get away with making more mistakes as its much harder to hit a 98mph fastball right over the plate then an 88 one. In general 9/10 times I will not pick up an unproven pitcher that is hot who cannot throw hard, they are just much much less likely to continue their success.

A maddux type pitcher is one in a million, and while there are similar guys that pop up and maintain respectable numbers with a weak arm, I would not touch one unless they can show me they can maintain their control for at least a full year, or more. Volquez coming down to earth may mean letting up 2-5 er in a game a few times for a stretch, where as somebody like Laffey means 8er as we have seen now once already(and I bet some more of those are coming). I don't think enough people look into what kind of stuff a guy has, if somehow an unproven guy has a 2 era through 5 starts but throws 87-91 range, I would let somebody else take their chance with him. It may work out once, but in the end it will hurt you more often.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:48 pm

acon44 wrote:Here's the thing, and I think especially people who haven't done fantasy baseball for longer probably don't realize as much. It is MUCH harder for a control specialist type of pitcher to succeed in baseball. Laffey was doing well because his control was very very sharp during that run. The problem is that he throws 86-90 mph on average. So while his control is pinpoint, he can shut teams down, as can anybody really can who can paint corners. The thing is that there just are not many Maddux/Glavine type pitchers out there. As soon as these guys lose their control for a period of time, and that 88mph fastball is left over the plate, I think you can imagine what happens when a ML hitter gets a piece of it. A power arm like Volquez, can get away with making more mistakes as its much harder to hit a 98mph fastball right over the plate then an 88 one. In general 9/10 times I will not pick up an unproven pitcher that is hot who cannot throw hard, they are just much much less likely to continue their success.

A maddux type pitcher is one in a million, and while there are similar guys that pop up and maintain respectable numbers with a weak arm, I would not touch one unless they can show me they can maintain their control for at least a full year, or more. Volquez coming down to earth may mean letting up 2-5 er in a game a few times for a stretch, where as somebody like Laffey means 8er as we have seen now once already(and I bet some more of those are coming). I don't think enough people look into what kind of stuff a guy has, if somehow an unproven guy has a 2 era through 5 starts but throws 87-91 range, I would let somebody else take their chance with him. It may work out once, but in the end it will hurt you more often.

Lord, I was not comparing Laffey and Volquez at all. I was simply saying look how easy it is for anj ERA to baloon in one night from sub 2 to above 3. That is all.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Yoda » Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:06 pm

The G.O.A.T. wrote:Really they aren't the only stats out there? You mean there are more? Wow and to think I had no idea that there was this large wide world of stats out there. :-°

When you don't let the ball get hit into the air you are going to create a lower HR rate. I don't see too many HR's hit off a GB. Also a .270 BABIP isn't awful by any means. Watch his starts and you can look and see batters aren't comfortable in the box against them. Like hitters not all pitchers will conform to have a uniform BABIP.


Well I think hitters have more control over BABIP than pitchers. The same pitch thrown at the same location at the same velocity will have different results depending on the hitter. However, GB pitchers especially great pitchers generally have lower BABIP so while Volquez's .270 should go up, I could see it staying well under .300.

A large part of Volquez's success has been due to the lack of HRs given up and LOB% Even Pedro Matinez, who is probably the most dominant pitcher in the modern era had 1 year of LOB% over 80% in his entire career in year 2000 when he posted 283 K/32 BB with a 0.74 WHIP in 217 IP. Volquez is not that good. Not yet anyway.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby acon44 » Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:19 pm

I wasn't saying you were directly comparing, I was just discussing the scenario. Also, don't forget Laffey has 50ip, volquez 80ip. That is a big difference....Like I said in an earlier response, I do agree to sell high if you can get good value, but his era is not going to skyrocket in any short amount of time, it would take 5-10 starts of letting up 3-6 runs before you started to see any real change at 80innings.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Giambis » Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:30 pm

I keep looking at the warning signs, and Volquez keeps proving me wrong, so I'm about done with my fearless prognostications with this guy.

With that being said, I'm still for selling (really) high, if you can get it. He is historically a fly ball pitcher. If he has somehow gotten over that trend, then I like his string of success to continue. However, if he regresses to the mean in that area, any flyball pitcher at the GAP in the dead of summer with his control issues is going to run into some trouble.
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Re: Volquez's Sabermetrics

Postby Niner Country » Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:40 pm

Just to let you know, this is where I got my info and no it doesn't let you check previous years as you will plainly see.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/

When I saw him among the league leaders among luckiest pitchers in 3/4 categories it made me pretty weary. I just acquired him in a relatively good deal and now will try to flip him for a better one. Already got my trade rejected for a 1 for 1 with Sabathia though.
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