I've recently gotten interested in Sabermetrics and I've recently acquired Volquez. He is among the leaders of the luckiest players in three out of the four major categories, minus the most important one BABIP. His LOB% was 88% last time I checked, 5% higher than the next guy and 16% above the league average. Some guys are able to consistently pitch out of jams, so my question is what has Volquez's LOB% been previous to this season?
Not saying that his LOB% and other stats won't come back to earth, but you can't compare them to his past really. He is young and still improving, doesn't have a lot of MLB innings and hasn't been very good in the one's he'd thrown before this year.
LOB% is not all luck depending on the situation. His LOB% is so high because he walks a lot of people, but then nobody can hit him when those guys are just sitting there. That is not really luck. His control issues are not as worrisome as your typical pitcher cause he can throw 98mph with a FILTHY changeup. Typically the luck factor with leaving guys on base would mean that they are lucky that nobody is hitting while those guys are sitting on the bases, but that is not the case here since there is a reason(actually 2, his fastball and changeup) that those guys get stranded so often.
With that said, I would sell him high IF you can get a real good player back. His ERA is 1.56, even BEST CASE scenario if he comes up to 2.75 or so, and please don't tell me you think he will stay under 2 for the year, then you are looking at him being at a 3.50 era the rest of the year, and that is IF he finishes at 2.75.
I always remind people, baseball is the one sport that is VERY streaky. Right now he is in a groove, and granted he has great stuff, but he will not just shut down every major league team all year. Webb is the perfect example, even a guy like that hits his hot and cold patches, it's just a part of the game. So basically if you sell him now you are pretty much guaranteed to have gotten his best portion of the year.
What is his BABIP for the season? Also, his is HR/FB ratio really, really low?
I can't figure this guy out. Logically, a 2:1 K/BB ratio should never produce these low of numbers, but they seem to be consistant and somewhat for real.
acon44 wrote:LOB% is not all luck depending on the situation. His LOB% is so high because he walks a lot of people, but then nobody can hit him when those guys are just sitting there. That is not really luck. His control issues are not as worrisome as your typical pitcher cause he can throw 98mph with a FILTHY changeup. Typically the luck factor with leaving guys on base would mean that they are lucky that nobody is hitting while those guys are sitting on the bases, but that is not the case here since there is a reason(actually 2, his fastball and changeup) that those guys get stranded so often.
With that said, I would sell him high IF you can get a real good player back. His ERA is 1.56, even BEST CASE scenario if he comes up to 2.75 or so, and please don't tell me you think he will stay under 2 for the year, then you are looking at him being at a 3.50 era the rest of the year, and that is IF he finishes at 2.75.
I always remind people, baseball is the one sport that is VERY streaky. Right now he is in a groove, and granted he has great stuff, but he will not just shut down every major league team all year. Webb is the perfect example, even a guy like that hits his hot and cold patches, it's just a part of the game. So basically if you sell him now you are pretty much guaranteed to have gotten his best portion of the year.
Very good post. The only thing that I can add is his absurdly low HR rate. With his walk rate, a few bombs will quickly erase his high LOB%
But yeah, if you are in a redraft league especially H2H, then you should definitely be trying to sell high. I couldn't fault people for hanging onto him either based on how well he is pitching but trading season has started and people are ready to make major moves to improve their teams.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Everyone remember Laffey? In 1 start he went from a low 1 era, miniscule really, to an above three. Add the huge walk rate, and all it will take is 1 or 2 starts against a team with some pop, and his ERA will be above 3 in no time.
Some interesting numbers there... I compared Volquez to Pedro. If uyou look at 93, a year where Pedro actually finished with a sub-2 ERA, arguably the BEST season in the modern era of pitching, you'll notice Pedro had lower WHIP, BB/9, Higher K/9, etc. etc. There's 0 reason Volquez should even have a sub 3 ERA much less sub 2.
Yanks_Baby wrote:Everyone remember Laffey? In 1 start he went from a low 1 era, miniscule really, to an above three. Add the huge walk rate, and all it will take is 1 or 2 starts against a team with some pop, and his ERA will be above 3 in no time.
Really great analogy - Laffey (control pitcher) and Volquez (power pitcher.) Second, team with some pop? I guess PHI, CHI and ATL don't count??
You've got no basis for it and all you are doing is stating the obvious. Naturally a couple of bad outings would result in his ERA jumping.
Yanks_Baby wrote:Everyone remember Laffey? In 1 start he went from a low 1 era, miniscule really, to an above three. Add the huge walk rate, and all it will take is 1 or 2 starts against a team with some pop, and his ERA will be above 3 in no time.
Really great analogy - Laffey (control pitcher) and Volquez (power pitcher.) Second, team with some pop? I guess PHI, CHI and ATL don't count??
You've got no basis for it and all you are doing is stating the obvious. Naturally a couple of bad outings would result in his ERA jumping.
I wasn't comparing pitchers, I was simply using a recent example of how incredibly easy it is for an ERA to jump. Someone is buying into the hype machine and getting defensive.
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by Niner Country » Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:06 am 
