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Will Vlad be running this year?

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Postby The Jury » Sun Feb 29, 2004 1:04 pm

Interesting opinions guys..

Hey Mets fan, just one thing..

3. His career sb/cs ratio is 123/71. He's caught over half the time that he runs.


123/(123+71) = 63.4% successful theft of base! :-]

He doesn't get caught "more than half the time he runs." ;-D
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 29, 2004 1:29 pm

The Jury wrote:Interesting opinions guys..

Hey Mets fan, just one thing..

3. His career sb/cs ratio is 123/71. He's caught over half the time that he runs.


123/(123+71) = 63.4% successful theft of base! :-]

He doesn't get caught "more than half the time he runs." ;-D


Oops. When I said that I was thinking of the 123 as attempts, not successful steals. My mistake.

But, still. 63.4% isn't a great rate. Especially if you've got somebody like Garrett Anderson or a healthy Troy Glaus hitting behind you.
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Postby Purple Haze » Sun Feb 29, 2004 2:14 pm

Vlad is way TOO important to risk.. He has a chronic back problem, and will not be running anymore..

He will always be a threat to steal a base on an unsuspecting pitcher, but his days of 40-40 (Potential) or even 40-30 are long gone..

Be happy with 10 steals, because he could easily hit 50 HR's and drive in 140 RBI's while hitting .330.. Still a top 5 pick ;-D
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Postby Andy1234 » Sun Feb 29, 2004 4:04 pm

baseball genius wrote:How can you say that a .330 average pushes him over your average OF....since when do you have to hit 40 120 .330 to be "above Average"?
I said it pushes him over the average "top" OF, in response to the original post saying that hitting .300 40 120, wasn't standoutish among the top OF.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 29, 2004 4:11 pm

The Jury wrote:Interesting opinions guys..

Hey Mets fan, just one thing..

3. His career sb/cs ratio is 123/71. He's caught over half the time that he runs.


123/(123+71) = 63.4% successful theft of base! :-]

He doesn't get caught "more than half the time he runs." ;-D


Anyone with that poor a success %, should be FINED if he ever takes off. Under 72% hurts the team.
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Re: Will Vlad be running this year?

Postby LBJackal » Sun Feb 29, 2004 4:42 pm

The Jury wrote:If he isn't.. he's generally a 110-40-120-.300 guy which is good but certainly there not in the upperest echelons of outfielders.


First of all, those numbers aren't accurate. Vlad will easily hit much better than .300, and even if he only gets ~15 steals, he would arguably be the #1 OF (#2 behind Beltran IMO).

And I don't see a huge decline in SB's like everybody else. Anaheim steals a lot of bases, and had more attempts than the Devil Rays last year who had Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford.

Vlad attempting to steal bases doesn't put him at more of an injury risk IMO. Why is stealing bases a risk, when he's going to be running more than that in the OF and when somebody gets a hit and he's on base? What about training? The training regimen for a MLB player is much harder and strenuous than running 90 feet. I don't see a case where stealing bases was stopped to avoid an injury. Maybe stopped due to an already present injury which hinders speed, but that doesn't appear to be the case with Vlad.

My point is that if Vlad is healthy, he will probably steal at least 20 bases. And he appears to be healthy.
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Postby Madison » Sun Feb 29, 2004 7:21 pm

Chronic back problems? Lol. :-D Amazes me how some people get carried away over one injury. Did you see the 502 foot home run that dented the stadium last year? He hit it after the injury. Take a look at his splits last year before and after the injury. Did you see Sportscenter last night? He's healthy. Not a doubt in my mind about it.

Vlad is healthy and should be running. I'm chalking up 20 steals with anything over that as gravy. :-)
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 29, 2004 7:27 pm

If you were a manager and had somebody like Garrett Anderson or Troy Glaus at bat with a man on first who gets caught 4 out of 10 times, would you have him run?

Rarely. And he'll get caught 37% of the time, so I think that 20 is a bit optimistic.
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Postby Manutd016 » Sun Feb 29, 2004 7:28 pm

jackal i agree with u that stealing bases isn't a risk. But i think people are thinking of how jeter got hurt last year
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Postby Purple Haze » Sun Feb 29, 2004 7:30 pm

Madison wrote:Chronic back problems? Lol. :-D Amazes me how some people get carried away over one injury. Did you see the 502 foot home run that dented the stadium last year? He hit it after the injury. Take a look at his splits last year before and after the injury. Did you see Sportscenter last night? He's healthy. Not a doubt in my mind about it.

Vlad is healthy and should be running. I'm chalking up 20 steals with anything over that as gravy. :-)


Yes CHRONIC.. means continuous! He had back problems before the disk problem last year :-o .. If you notice with my predictions, (Even with chronic back problems) His power numbers go up ;-D , but there is no doubt he won't run like he used to... He has CHRONIC back trouble.. He is getting cortizone injections regular.. (because of a CHRONIC back problem) This doesn't mean he isn't a STUD.. just the reason why he, and the Angels won't risk running him as much as he did prior to last season..Yes you run in the outfield, but sliding into second is a risk for any player :-o .. let a lone someone with a CHRONIC back problem.. even with his CHRONIC back problem.. Vlad will still hit .330 50+ HR's 140 RBI's score 100 runs, but he may only steal 10 bases.. that is all I'm saying.. (If he steals 20, it's still a lot less running than he did prior to last year!)

Remember this is only..OUR OPINIONS :-] ... thank you please come again ;-D
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