Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **RedHopeful** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:49 pm

Inukchuk wrote:I think that it would be great if Harden tore it up for the rest of the year. Then all those people who were "geniuses" for having drafted Harden won't learn the valuable lesson of never trusting the injury prone guy. That's better for me, because I don't like to pay for high risk guys, and they'll have less money.

Good point. I can already see guys like Harden and Sheets among the top 10 or 15 pitchers drafted next season. ;-D

by **yanks924** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:00 pm

You guys keep repeating this as if no one else sees this. I only sound like a broken record because I keep rebutting the same argument over and over again. OK I am officially out of this thread until the end of the season. No sense in arguing with a wall.

You fail to realize Harden is more valuable than Verlander WHETHER Harden stays healthy the whole year or not. Of course everyone will say if he stays healthy because its a question with him.

by **Yoda** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:07 pm

yanks924 wrote:
You guys keep repeating this as if no one else sees this. I only sound like a broken record because I keep rebutting the same argument over and over again. OK I am officially out of this thread until the end of the season. No sense in arguing with a wall.

You fail to realize Harden is more valuable than Verlander WHETHER Harden stays healthy the whole year or not. Of course everyone will say if he stays healthy because its a question with him.

No pitcher who misses as much time as Harden does cannot possibly be more valuable than another pitcher who will log 200+ IP with at least a 90% confidence level. 200 IP Verlander > 100 IP Harden.

What you are saying is like Mark Prior is better than Verlander if he is healthy.

by **ScrappyDoo** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:12 pm

yanks924 wrote:
You guys keep repeating this as if no one else sees this. I only sound like a broken record because I keep rebutting the same argument over and over again. OK I am officially out of this thread until the end of the season. No sense in arguing with a wall.

You fail to realize Harden is more valuable than Verlander WHETHER Harden stays healthy the whole year or not. Of course everyone will say if he stays healthy because its a question with him.

I agree with you to a certain extent. But Harden isn't out of the woods yet. Assuming Harden pitches 120 or so innings this year, which is definitely iffy, it will be very hard for Verlander to out produce him. Since Harden would probably finish around the same amount of K's as Verlander if he pitched a full season. Verlander would probably edge him by about 3 wins or so, but Harden would have him in WHIP and ERA by a good amount. Still that assumes Harden makes close to 10 starts for the rest of the year.

There is still a very good chance Verlander will outproduce Harden, it would just require a long term DL stint.

by **J35J** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:13 pm

We need a tally of how many times Harden is taken over Verlander in next years drafts....even if Harden pitches out the rest of this season.

by **ScrappyDoo** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:22 pm

Assuming both Verlander and Harden finish the year healthy, I think it would be foolish to draft Harden ahead of Verlander. The real Verlander was the pitcher from last year, and from this year after his first 10 or so starts. His start this year was an aberration, but will affect his final numbers pretty drastically because his starts were that bad. I think at this rate he would be a great steal because some may be weary of his numbers that were so negatively influenced by his horrid start. But Harden is being eased along this year and I think he can be reasonably healthy and make 10 more starts, thus making him more valuable this year.

But it would be like lightning striking twice if Harden could post two back to back years of health. I just think this year he finally has some luck, the team is being extra cautious with him and he has cut down on pitches that seem to aggravate his injuries, like his slider.

In terms of draft value, Verlander will be better than Harden next year because Harden is showing signs of life. I only like Harden as a mid round pick, if he starts creeping towards the top of the draft I will definitely be staying away because he is such an injury risk. Missing significant time from a 5th rounder is a lot different than from a 15th rounder.

by **Inukchuk** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:57 pm

yanks924 wrote:I am a Harden backer and I think he is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he can stay healthy. My whole point between Harden and Verlander is If Harden throws 100-120 Innings this year which is 4 more starts of this kind of baseball compared to 200 innings pitched of Verlander overall Harden will end up helping your team more than Verlander.

I think that's pretty debatable. You may be right, but I wouldn't bank on it myself.

And just because you take injuries into consideration has no barring on whether you know anything about fantasy baseball that just means you know his injury history lol.

Wait, so you're saying a player's injury history has nothing to do with how you regard them as a potential fantasy baseball player? Injury history is a very important part of valuing players. If it wasn't you'd be drafting Liriano and Prior to anchor your staff...

And if you want to go with percentages the odds of Harden staying healthy the rest of this year can't really be that bad (not that they are great). 3 years in a row he has had to shut it down because of injuries, sounds to me like he is due for a season without a season ending injury.

Oof, so I'm guessing you're one of those guys who looks at a roulette board after a bunch of blacks come up and put all your money on red simply because it's due...not wise.

Maybe I am biased because I like Harden but I don't think it would be THAT crazy if he threw dominant baseball the rest of this year.

As much as I like him, and as much as I'd like him to stay healthy and dominate, I would just be too leery to take a chance on him over a safer option like Verlander. In the end, I guess that's what makes fantasy baseball so great, though: the fact that everyone manages their team differently. If we all played the same, it'd be boring, eh? ;-D