RedHopeful wrote: Inukchuk wrote:
yanks924 wrote:But FROM HERE ON OUT AND EVEN WHEN THIS THREAD STARTED I personally think if anyone chose Verlander over Harden they would A. not know much about fantasy or B. be banking on that Harden will be hurt again.
You're exactly right, but only about option B. You just basically made the case of all the people that are choosing Verlander.
Aren't options A and B intertwined?
IMO good fantasy players factor a number of things. Minimizing risk is one of them. Banking on Harden getting injured at some point means you DO know something about fantasy.
Um, yeah...I have a sneaky suspicion that we're in total agreement but neither of us realizes it. Or maybe it's just me.
This is my interpretation of yanks924's statement: he seems to be a Harden backer (or just a guy who wants to argue with Yoda), and he's trying to say that anyone that prefers Verlander is either an idiot or they can predict that Harden gets hurt which he believes to be a ridiculous precognitive ability. If that's not what he meant, then the options (as Red said) are mutually exclusive and it was a totally useless thing to say.
I was implying that the keen manager will take into account the fact that Harden is injury prone and use that to go after the safer bet (Verlander) which, as RedHopeful said, implies that you do know something about fantasy baseball. That's why I said he was right, but only on option B. In other words, if you choose Verlander then you do know something about fantasy baseball. If you go with Harden, you're maximizing risk, which will kill you in the long run.
Harden may very well continue to be dominant for the rest of this year. However, that's like seeing a bunch of black numbers on the roulette board (aka a bunch of healthy starts by Harden) and assuming they will continue. The problem with that is, if you're a poor gambler (or fantasy baseball player), you'll put more stock in the short term, and lose sight of the long term fact that the house always wins (or Harden gets hurt a lot, in our little analogy), and you'll ride black (or Harden) until you're out of money.
I think that it would be great if Harden tore it up for the rest of the year. Then all those people who were "geniuses" for having drafted Harden won't learn the valuable lesson of never trusting the injury prone guy. That's better for me, because I don't like to pay for high risk guys, and they'll have less money.