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Cliff Lee revisited

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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby Yoda » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:52 pm

So are you advocating holding everyone you pick up off waivers and not sell high? I guess I am confused. :-S
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby kcs261 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:57 pm

Yoda wrote:So are you advocating holding everyone you pick up off waivers and not sell high? I guess I am confused. :-S


I really must work for now. But one last post: No, that's not what I am saying at all. I'm saying that you need to look at each player case by case and determine who is legit and who isn't. I think Lee and Ludwick are legit. As rotoworld put it, the underlying numbers tells me they are legit and they will not slow down. Just don't be a lemming and sell high on a guy without looking at their numbers. You all ought to be able to see that Lee and Ludwick are legit.

Other guys, yes, sell high. But not these two. Some of you are just too caught up on selling high on everybody you pick off waivers when some of these guys you are better off keeping.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby Yoda » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:01 pm

kcs261 wrote:
Yoda wrote:So are you advocating holding everyone you pick up off waivers and not sell high? I guess I am confused. :-S


I really must work for now. But one last post: No, that's not what I am saying at all. I'm saying that you need to look at each player case by case and determine who is legit and who isn't. I think Lee and Ludwick are legit. As rotoworld put it, the underlying numbers tells me they are legit and they will not slow down. Just don't be a lemming and sell high on a guy without looking at their numbers. You all ought to be able to see that Lee and Ludwick are legit.

Other guys, yes, sell high. But not these two. Some of you are just too caught up on selling high on everybody you pick off waivers when some of these guys you are better off keeping.


OK so you are telling people not to sell high that much is clear. Personally, I don't care if the guy is Jesus Christ Superstar. If I can sell him high and get other pieces that will help me win then I will do it without even a second thought. There is no reason to be like "OMG I am so smart that I picked up this player therefore I must hang onto him for the entire season!" I just don't see how that is a good strategy at all since you will be wrong at least 9 times out of 10 when dealing with waiver trash.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby Bwanna » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:12 pm

kcs261 wrote:Again, many of you are acting like lemmings. Sell high. Sell high. Sell high. Somebody told you that cliche when you first started playing fantasy baseball and you can't let go of it. If there were the Ten Commandments of fantasy baseball, you all would put that one number one and look no further.


kcs261 wrote:
Yoda wrote:So are you advocating holding everyone you pick up off waivers and not sell high? I guess I am confused. :-S


... No, that's not what I am saying at all.


I'm SO CONFUSED.... :-b :-S

Seems to be some different uses of the term 'selling high' in this thread...

To me (and most I think), 'selling high' means to trade player A, who is performing beyond his expected and past performance, for player B, who is performing at or below his expected or past performance.

As J35J stated...
J35J wrote:No one is saying dump these guys for a bag of balls.


If you trade Lee or Ludwick for too little (which you appear to be accusing people of), just because other people don't trust them either, you've _probably_ made a mistake. But, it's also all about risk/reward and the gamble you're willing to take their current performance continues. Some are willing to risk that, others aren't. That risk/reward gambling nature of fantasy sports is one reason we enjoy it so much.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby Yoda » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:33 pm

Bwanna wrote:If you trade Lee or Ludwick for too little (which you appear to be accusing people of), just because other people don't trust them either, you've _probably_ made a mistake. But, it's also all about risk/reward and the gamble you're willing to take their current performance continues. Some are willing to risk that, others aren't. That risk/reward gambling nature of fantasy sports is one reason we enjoy it so much.


Exactly. Risk management 101. This is why I don't get so carried away with injury prone players and waiver trash that over-perform.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:39 pm

kcs261, at best, your logic is circular, and certainly not sound. Most of the examples have already been given by Yoda, mweir, and J35J, who have all made excellent points. You've also made your fair share of good points, but your logic here is severely flawed.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:00 pm

kcs261 wrote:
Bwanna wrote:
mweir145 wrote:First of all, just wow. 8-o

I don't really get why you're telling people it was a bad idea to sell high on Cliff Lee during a fluke season. He'd never done anything like this before, and it was completely reasonable for people to believe that he would decline to previous levels. I, for one, own Justin Duchscherer in my league, and I've been actively trying to sell high on him for weeks. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's what a smart manager does. Of course, there's also nothing wrong with keeping a guy like Lee or Duchscherer if you can't get anything back that will produce as much as they will anyway, but you have to atleast try.

Ryan Ludwick, by the way, is a 30 year-old career minor league journeyman. It's highly improbable that he will be able to keep this up. Selling high is the right thing to do with him. Calling that over-managing is completely ridiculous. I've owned way too many players who got off to great starts before declining to believe any of your absurb logic about accepting that players like this are in the middle of career years.


Well said.


Again, this is all wrong. You all accept the premise that you have to sell high when a guy is doing better than he ever has. Most of you do it without thinking. It's second nature. You have been told to do it. Prevailing view is that you do it. So, like a bunch of lemmngs, you do it. But you are all jumping off a cliff with Lee and Ludwick.

Jumping off a cliff on a career 4.50 ERA guy heading into this season and a career minor league journeyman? Really? 8-o
You're an idiot.

And you know what? If you have a guy whose numbers show he is a fluke, it's a good move. But not Cliff Lee and Ryan Ludwick. You are all wrong. And this is where the sell high logic has gone too far -- and many of you have become like lemmings touting a meaningless "cliche."

If Ludwick was going to do this at the major league level, he likely would have done it before he reached 30. Now that he's there, it's far more likely that this is just a prolonged hot streak. Selling high is exactly the thing that should be done with him.

Look at Lee's numbers: 2.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 110 Ks to 20 BBs.

Somebody tell me when looking at those numbers why it is Cliff Lee is getting lucky and can't keep it up? If he was walking a bunch of people, I'd be with you. If his WHIP was in the 1.3-1.4 territory, I'd be with you. But when you look at these numbers, an astute fantasy owner sees this isn't a fluke. How can you people not see it? Get off the cliches about selling high and look at the gosh darn numbers. ;-) Lee's numbers have been in this territory all year long. This is legit.

Did you even read anything I wrote? Nobody said Cliff Lee was getting lucky this year. Based on his peripherals, he's exactly where he should be. Lee has had a fantastic season, and nobody is trying to take that away from him. Still, none of that has absolutely ANTHING to do with what I wrote.


Many of you are just lemmings touting this sell high BS in every case. You need to look at every player individually, not paint with a broad brush -- and be able to see when a legit career year is in the making. I'm not saying that selling high doesn't make sense at times.

But when you tout selling high on Lee and Ludwick, you are just repeating a meaningless cliche.

Read and actually respond to what I wrote. I can't deal with this garbage you are spewing.
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby Bwanna » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:02 pm

mweir, would you quit beating around the bush and tell us what you really think?!?

:-b ;-D
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:05 pm

kcs261 wrote:
Yoda wrote:So are you advocating holding everyone you pick up off waivers and not sell high? I guess I am confused. :-S


I really must work for now. But one last post: No, that's not what I am saying at all. I'm saying that you need to look at each player case by case and determine who is legit and who isn't. I think Lee and Ludwick are legit. As rotoworld put it, the underlying numbers tells me they are legit and they will not slow down. Just don't be a lemming and sell high on a guy without looking at their numbers. You all ought to be able to see that Lee and Ludwick are legit.

Other guys, yes, sell high. But not these two. Some of you are just too caught up on selling high on everybody you pick off waivers when some of these guys you are better off keeping.

Wow. 8-o What about my example of Duchschrerer?
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Re: Cliff Lee revisited

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:08 pm

Bwanna wrote:mweir, would you quit beating around the bush and tell us what you really think?!?

:-b ;-D

I'm not a very patient person for such idiocy. :-]
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