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H2H points question

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H2H points question

Postby lilfrier » Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:08 pm

How many points do other commissioners typically set the points values for Stolen Bases in H2H leagues? I'm trying to get a number for next year and would appreciate any input.
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Re: H2H points question

Postby noseeum » Tue Jun 03, 2008 7:12 pm

2 points for a steal, 4 points for a homer (but actually six because you get a run and an RBI as well).

This setup tends to favor power guys, but I like it that way. If you made it 3 points, SB studs would be ridiculously overvalued. Also, we don't do negatives for caught stealing. So I guess I could see 3 for a steal if you had -1 for a caught stealing. I just think negative offensive points are annoying, so I don't have any. Just my opinion though.
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Re: H2H points question

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Jun 03, 2008 8:07 pm

They should be scored relative to the rest of your scoring system. However, they should not be worth much at all.

If you're looking at sabermetrics, SBs are a net negative until success rates get rather high. Mendoza scoring, which uses relatively current data, values a stolen base at .180 runs while being caught stealing costs a team .320 runs (that's -.320). Mendoza says that for a player to just break even, he has to steal 1.78 bases for every 1 time he is caught for a success rate of 64%.

Just to put that in perspective, their system says these events are worth these run equivalences:

Single - .500 (2.77 times a successful SB)
Double - .720 (4.00)
Triple - 1.040 (5.77)
Home Run - 1.440 (8.00)
Walk - .340 (1.89)
HBP - .340 (1.89)
IBB - .250 (1.39)
Sac (hit) - .040 (0.22)
Sac (fly) - .370 (2.06)

As you can see, every type of hit is worth way more than a stolen base. Shoot, every event except for a sac bunt is worth more than a stolen base - and that's before you start subtracting for the times when they are caught! So what I'm saying is that your scoring for SBs needs to be relative to what you're scoring for hits. That chart, if you're so inclined, indicates that no matter what, your point system for SBs should be minimal.

You can see the entire Mendoza rule book here (you'll download a .doc file when you click that).
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Re: H2H points question

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:38 am

2 for SB, -.5 for CS
I think thats CBS's standard, and I use it in most leagues. We score 1 point per TB and 1 point per R and RBI. It works pretty well, giving speed guys about as much value as a medium power guy.

Last year Brian Roberts (50 sb, 12 HRs) was worth 613.5, Brandon Phillips (30/30) was worth 609. Since they were about equally valuable last year it worked out well.
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Re: H2H points question

Postby lilfrier » Wed Jun 04, 2008 1:37 pm

Our CBS league is actually 1 per SB, -1 per CS...
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Re: H2H points question

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jun 04, 2008 1:47 pm

lilfrier wrote:Our CBS league is actually 1 per SB, -1 per CS...

;-D
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Re: H2H points question

Postby noseeum » Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:12 am

lilfrier wrote:Our CBS league is actually 1 per SB, -1 per CS...


That really makes steals pretty much worthless. Even good base stealers are only successful 80% of the time, so you're giving a guy who steals 50 bases only 40 points. If you have the usual 1 point for a single, 2 for 2B, 3 for 3B, 4 for HR, 1 for RBI, 1 for Run, then you're pretty much eliminating the value of a speed guy. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Just pointing it out.
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Re: H2H points question

Postby lilfrier » Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:23 am

Not necessarily. At 80% success, Reyes still gets about 50 or so extra points, and Carl Crawford gets 40 extra. 80% is average for a good base stealer, and it allows for a fairly good points total. Even A-Rod had 24 SBs to 4 CS last year...
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Re: H2H points question

Postby StlSluggers » Thu Jun 05, 2008 12:07 pm

lilfrier wrote:Not necessarily. At 80% success, Reyes still gets about 50 or so extra points, and Carl Crawford gets 40 extra. 80% is average for a good base stealer, and it allows for a fairly good points total. Even A-Rod had 24 SBs to 4 CS last year...

Exaclty. The new reality is that - from a fantasy perspective - stolen bases should not be an asset unto themselves. Rather, they are a nice addition that can boost a player's value if he possesses certain prerequisites that are essential to a baseball player.
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Re: H2H points question

Postby noseeum » Thu Jun 05, 2008 12:38 pm

StlSluggers wrote:
lilfrier wrote:Not necessarily. At 80% success, Reyes still gets about 50 or so extra points, and Carl Crawford gets 40 extra. 80% is average for a good base stealer, and it allows for a fairly good points total. Even A-Rod had 24 SBs to 4 CS last year...

Exaclty. The new reality is that - from a fantasy perspective - stolen bases should not be an asset unto themselves. Rather, they are a nice addition that can boost a player's value if he possesses certain prerequisites that are essential to a baseball player.


50 points over the course of a season for Reyes' steals is not much at all when you consider Howard gets a minimum of 240 points if he hits 40 homers and no one else is on base for any of them.

2 points for a steal and no negatives for caught stealing still heavily favors power, much more so than 4X4 or 5X5, but I think +1 and -1 just makes steals irrelevant. Reyes would go way down in value in the draft.
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