Carlos Pena - stud or dud?

[lbblue]

I didn't like that Todd Helton was my only option at 1B so I just traded H. Kendrick and A. Ethier for Pena. He's been pretty awful this year but Kendrick and Ethier were both depth that I could afford to trade so I figured it was worth a shot on Pena (plus Double Plays Turned is a scoring category in my league so playing two 1B---Pena and Helton---at 1B and UTIL can be an advantage).

My question is, what is the general opinion of Pena and his outlook for the remainder of the season. Obviously he had a heck of a year last season but was he kind of a one hit wonder? It looks pretty clear that he isn't going to touch those numbers this year but do you expect his average to come up at least?

The guy is currently batting cleanup in a pretty strong lineup so I'm hoping he can start making contact more often in order to up his AVG and RBI a bit.

Anyone who knows a lot about him have any feedback on the guy?

[Bajecco]

I'm not worried to much. He will rebound in June, July & August. I think he can still reach 35-40 HR and top 100 RBI.

[Yoda]

I think he is a dud. If I had him then I'd be shopping him hard. One guy in my league got Ellsbury for him. That's good value.

[Yanks_Baby]

I woulsdn't quite say dud, but I'd think expecting 30 homers or more woul be optimistic.

Look for 85 R 26HR 95 RBI 270 AVG

Definitely not stud, but not quite a dud. But sill, sell him if you can.

[J35J]

I woulsdn't quite say dud, but I'd think expecting 30 homers or more woul be optimistic.

Look for 85 R 26HR 95 RBI 270 AVG

Definitely not stud, but not quite a dud. But sill, sell him if you can.

hhmm....He shouldn't have a terrible time hitting 30 homers over a full season but hitting .260 regularly would be a suprise to me. He's got the pop but he's not a very good hitter. Shop him if you can get a top 10-12 1B out of the deal...which Pena isn't.

[Bajecco]

I woulsdn't quite say dud, but I'd think expecting 30 homers or more woul be optimistic.

Look for 85 R 26HR 95 RBI 270 AVG

Definitely not stud, but not quite a dud. But sill, sell him if you can.

He's on pace for about 28 & 90 despite his poor start. I really think he will hit 30-35 & drive in 100-110. No way his avg reaches .270 though.

[The Artful Dodger]

As deeray would tell you, if Pena is hitting up the middle, he's more effective (he did this more often which resulted in a .280+ average). He hasn't done that with great frequency and is finding himself either striking out or popping out the lion's share of AB. The power pace is there and I'd say it's possible he's going to hit 35 HR and 100 RBI, but in terms of average, he's a career hitter in the .240's.

[lbblue]

Thanks for the feedback, guys. Like I said, I looked at Pena's career numbers and felt there was a strong chance that last year was an anomaly. Still, I gave up a couple of players that I could afford to lose (the 2 for 1 also allowed me to add another pitching option instead of essentially wasting another roster spot on a bench position player).

I knew I was risking getting a player that may not improve on his .220 AVG and 200 K pace, but felt it was worth the chance. At the very least, he's hitting in the middle of a pretty good lineup so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that some good will come of out this trade.

I just hope that Pena ends up being a better option than someone like Adam LaRoche, who I could have plucked off the waiver wire.

[kcs261]

I picked up Pena off my WW. I'm hoping he picks it up. But when you look at last season in the context of his entire career, there is no guaranty.

[freeling_prideful]

Last year was definitely a huge anomaly. His strikeout rate is atrocious and his BABIP, while unlucky, is not that bad (.280). If that rises up to around .300 or so, he'll be in the 240-245 range in average. Basically, to really get his average up to the 260-265 range, he would have to hit homers as often as guys like Howard and Dunn do...he managed it last season, but quite frankly I don't think he has that much power. I see him ending at: .240-32 HR-95 RBI and being a pretty big bust.