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Verlander

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Verlander

Postby Whomper » Sat May 31, 2008 5:30 pm

It is to the point where I pretty much want to drop him. I wouldnt have the courage to offer him in a trade because he sucks so bad..How long can you wait for a supposed ace to turn it around ? :-t
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Re: Verlander

Postby NZ Eff » Sat May 31, 2008 6:53 pm

He's pitched pretty well his last 4 starts. If he got any kind of run support his record would be much better.

In his two wins the Tigers have scored 22 runs. In his other 10 starts they have scored a total of 12 runs 8-o
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Re: Verlander

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Sat May 31, 2008 7:07 pm

I've bought low in two leagues so far (gave up Jon Rauch in one and Justin Upton when he was hot earlier in the year)...I'd still buy low on him. Barring an injury, he should turn it around, but the longer into the season we go, the more you have to wonder, but I still have faith (unless there's a hidden injury).
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Re: Verlander

Postby Precise » Sat May 31, 2008 9:36 pm

44k in 75 innings :-C

5.16 era :-C

2 wins :~(
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Re: Verlander

Postby dillpickle » Sat May 31, 2008 9:41 pm

You also have to consider his 4.30 plus ERA post-all star game last year. He hasn't been near the same pitcher after throwing that no-hitter as he was prior. As "good" as he has pitched the last four outtings, he still walks too many and strikes out too few. I consider him one of the five most over-rated pitchers in baseball.
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Re: Verlander

Postby GOGOGADGETFLOW » Sat May 31, 2008 9:51 pm

SELL NOW SELL NOW SELL NOW! BB% has risen dramatically k/9% has decreased dramatically. After a good outing TRADE!
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Re: Verlander

Postby Philliebuster » Sat May 31, 2008 10:07 pm

dillpickle wrote:You also have to consider his 4.30 plus ERA post-all star game last year. He hasn't been near the same pitcher after throwing that no-hitter as he was prior. As "good" as he has pitched the last four outtings, he still walks too many and strikes out too few. I consider him one of the five most over-rated pitchers in baseball.


How does his 4-1 record with a 3.20 ERA in Sept and Oct of last year fit into your ill-researched claim that there was no progression toward the end of last season? He also doesn't have any history of a high BB rate.

This is his 3rd full season in the majors. The man is 25 yrs of age. His K/9 historically has been above 10 in the minors, and nearly 7 in the majors.

His las 4 starts have shown improvement. I think he is starting to settle in. I've watched his starts, he's slowly increasing the speed of the fast ball. What doesn't help is that his run support (after tonight) has been less than 2 per game...can't win with that. Yeah sell, i'll buy.
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Re: Verlander

Postby freeling_prideful » Sat May 31, 2008 11:05 pm

Philliebuster wrote:How does his 4-1 record with a 3.20 ERA in Sept and Oct of last year fit into your ill-researched claim that there was no progression toward the end of last season? He also doesn't have any history of a high BB rate.

This is his 3rd full season in the majors. The man is 25 yrs of age. His K/9 historically has been above 10 in the minors, and nearly 7 in the majors.

His las 4 starts have shown improvement. I think he is starting to settle in. I've watched his starts, he's slowly increasing the speed of the fast ball. What doesn't help is that his run support (after tonight) has been less than 2 per game...can't win with that. Yeah sell, i'll buy.


Verlander's month-by-month splits last season are weird and inexplicable. September was one of his better months, and his ERA would have likely been in the 2.75-3.00 range if not for the fact that he gave up 7 homers (most of any month in the season). So I don't want to say that his 2nd half splits indicate a radical decline, esp. when his K rate remained strong (86/92.2 post-ASB compared to 97/109 pre-ASB).

That being said, he has done pretty poorly this season and I'm very troubled. His innings jump from 05 to 06 was immense, something like 60 IP. That's not a good thing to do to a young pitcher, and while he didn't seem to suffer the effects too badly in 2007, he may be paying for it in '08. Consider Verlander's average fastball velocity has gone from 95.1 (2006) to 94.8 (2007) to 93.1 (2008). Not that big a difference in his first 2 years, but the drop of almost 2 mph from 06-07 to '08 is not a good sign and may be an indicator of a dead arm, shoulder fatigue, etc.

As many people have mention, his K rate is down drastically. He was not a great strikeout pitcher in his first full season, at 6.2 K/9 IP. That jumped last year to 8.2, which is very good--an indicator that he had learned the hitters and also that he had fully harnessed his excellent changeup more often (it's arguably his best pitch, it really gets a lot of swings and misses). This season, however, it's at 5.5, and I think the main reason is that he has a tougher time setting up his offspeed stuff without consistently throwing in the upper 90's. Most Verlander scouting reports will tell you that he throws a very straight fastball, which means that he needs to throw it VERY hard to make it a pitch that isn't easy to put into play.

Consider that the closest players in terms of K rate to Verlander right now are: Guthrie, Bonser, Sonnanstine, Bannister, Litsch, Batista, Bonderman and Wang. Hardly dominant and distinguished company for the young hurler.

His FB velocity is really the key. It has improved in recent games, but not to the point where he is consistently humming the ball in there at 95 mph. He will touch 95, but generally sit around 90-93 for most of the game, particularly in the middle innings. That is just not the dominant Verlander we once knew (I remember watching his 06 debut against the Rangers and the SLOWEST pitch he threw might have been 95, he hit 99 that day). Buy with caution, and if you can sell for a starter like Chad Billingsley or John Maine I would do it right now.
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Re: Verlander

Postby pangbones » Sat May 31, 2008 11:17 pm

I've watched several of his starts, and most of the time he's looked good. He's been very unlucky with run support and what not. One thing the Tiger announcers have said before is that the Tigers want him to not throw as hard as he has in the past. I've also heard Leyland say this as well. I don't know if that is having an affect on him or not, but he hasn't been the same pitcher he was last year. I believe he's still figuring things out, and I would definitley buy if I could.
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Re: Verlander

Postby Precise » Sat May 31, 2008 11:53 pm

freeling_prideful wrote:
Philliebuster wrote: Buy with caution, and if you can sell for a starter like Chad Billingsley or John Maine I would do it right now.


Its sad that I drafted Verlander to anchor my starting rotation (along side Beckett) and now I am being told to sell him for Billingsly/Maine.

Its even more sad that I don't disagree :,-(
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