The Guru wrote:This is my 1st year in a keeper auction league and I'm having a hard time pulling off trades. I think its because I'm having a hard time evaluating players contracts and there actual worth. Some help is needed.
Here's my trade examples (All declined):
Offered Braun-$40 for Loney-$3
Offered Braun for Atkins-$20 and Daric Barton-$5
Offered King Felix-$29 for Kinsler-$20 and Volquez-$1
Offered King Felix-$29 for Francour-$18 and Miledge-$5
Player for player I feel these trades are completely fair. So what am I missing is a way to evaluate players salaries. I figured I could trade some of my studs for cheap young talent, but in this league the cheap young talent seems untouchable. Why is that?
It really does depend upon your league setup: how long are contracts, what's the total auction budget, how many keepers are you allowed, what's the roster requirements, etc., etc.
That said, knowing nothing about your league, the only trade that really looks like now for next year is Braun for Loney. Braun has finally started to heat up, but I was avoiding drafting him this year in case of a 1-year wonder. Atkins, however, has been a pretty solid producer the past few years and has been just fine so far this year, nearly having as good as stats as Braun, even with Braun's surge the past couple of weeks.
Felix for Kinsler & Volquez is just not something I would accept. Volquez is having a better year than Felix and Kinsler has been doing great. Even in a redraft league, I don't see any reason to take that deal.
Felix for Francoeur and Milledge is more favorable. I would say Felix has been a good, although not elite, pitcher so far this year (that 1.47 WHIP is pretty high) but Frenchie has been pretty ho-hum himself. And Milledge has been WW material. So in that trade you're giving a little extra value this year, but it's not ridiculous, and might not be any depending on league settings and team needs.
As far as the general issue of gauging future worth, any keeper brings value to your team by the amount that their keeper price is less than the price that they would go for in your auction next year. So if Loney would go for $10 in your auction, he has $7 in retained value. That should be worth about $10 - $12 in value this year to someone in contention... who knows how Loney really will look next year, who knows if they'll be in contention again, who knows if they're even going to stay in the league. Now, how individual guys in your league value future vs. present, that I really don't know. But that's how I'd think about it.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.