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Let's talk about Vlad?

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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby pangbones » Thu May 29, 2008 2:42 pm

His K rate is up at 16.5%, and his BB rate is down at 8.1%. His slugging is at .443, where as he's at .575 for his career. His babip is at .277, like .50 points below normal. His GB% is also a little higher than normal, though lower than it was last year.

I was expecting upper 20's HR's from him when I drafted him. The avg will come up, but the decline, IMO is on. His days of hitting 35 HR's are over. He also has like 9 gidp for the year. I just traded him for Abreu and Felix, so I'm happy about that.
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby hot4tx » Thu May 29, 2008 2:54 pm

Wow. Thats a lot more pessimism than I expected. I hope Vlad shakes this off and ends up a little off of last years numbers, as that would mean pretty good numbers from here on.

I tend to give hitters with his amount of history a little more rope, especially since he's not yet that old. I don't think I would trade Vlad for any less than 3rd-4th round value still, but we'll see. Like I said I can point to his history as real potential and hope and that's it. I think I would still rather own Vlad than McLouth or Quentin. But it's getting really close :,-(
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby Millhouse » Thu May 29, 2008 3:42 pm

I just traded FOR Vlad. Gave Soto & M.Bourn, got Vlad, Saito & Pierzynzki. I needed a closer and figured I could flip Vlad on his big name in a package for an even better player easier than I could trade Bourn, who's looked at as a one category wonder (the guy I traded him to was last in steals).

So....what SP might you guys expect to get for Vlad if it were a 1-for-1?
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby brandnew » Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:29 pm

I think I just overpaid.. I gave Carlos Gomez, Justin Upton, and Nathan for Ellsbury and Vlad. :-o
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby freeling_prideful » Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:32 pm

I am a disappointed Vlad owner as well. I would be happy if his poor luck in BABIP corrects and he hits .300-.310 the rest of the way with about 15 HR and 70 RBI. I think he's a fringe top-20 outfielder at this point.
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby sportsaddict » Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:39 pm

mkultra wrote:
sportsaddict wrote:According to sources close to the Guerrero family, they are having a situation with their taxes. Once those all get paid, Vlad will be hitting in no time. The most recent example of this was Adrian Tru Beltre a few years ago, who after getting his taxes straightened out with H&R Block, was able to get back to normal. Don't worry about Vlad. ;-D


Uh, is this code for something? :-S


Sorry, I know I'm immature. This is a reference to a few years ago, when a guy on the Cafe claimed to know the reason for Adrian Beltre's struggles. He said it was because he was worried about his taxes. I don't know what happened to that thread but it was really hilarious.
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sun Jun 01, 2008 5:35 pm

sportsaddict wrote:
mkultra wrote:
sportsaddict wrote:According to sources close to the Guerrero family, they are having a situation with their taxes. Once those all get paid, Vlad will be hitting in no time. The most recent example of this was Adrian Tru Beltre a few years ago, who after getting his taxes straightened out with H&R Block, was able to get back to normal. Don't worry about Vlad. ;-D


Uh, is this code for something? :-S


Sorry, I know I'm immature. This is a reference to a few years ago, when a guy on the Cafe claimed to know the reason for Adrian Beltre's struggles. He said it was because he was worried about his taxes. I don't know what happened to that thread but it was really hilarious.


If this week taught us anything, Tru just finished paying all of his back taxes. :-D
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby Chiefscards » Sun Jun 01, 2008 7:47 pm

Vlads on the backside of his career and time to trade away in keepers. Had him on 2 of my keeper teams, and was able to trade him for J Upton and a 1st and 6th round pick which turned into A Gordon and McLouth. Still trying to deal him in the other, but am getting no interest in him.
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Re: Let's talk about Vlad?

Postby stumpak » Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:48 am

pangbones wrote:His K rate is up at 16.5%, and his BB rate is down at 8.1%. His slugging is at .443, where as he's at .575 for his career. His babip is at .277, like .50 points below normal. His GB% is also a little higher than normal, though lower than it was last year.

I was expecting upper 20's HR's from him when I drafted him. The avg will come up, but the decline, IMO is on. His days of hitting 35 HR's are over. He also has like 9 gidp for the year. I just traded him for Abreu and Felix, so I'm happy about that.


I agree with this, the decline is on. Vlad has always been the opposite of a cereberal hitter - his performance has been attributable entirely to physical skill. How many other guys could have put up those type of numbers swinging at everything all the time? Consequently, it is also reasonable to thing that any physical slip impacts him dispropotinately. He is 32 after all, and for a guy that relies on pure physical skill, a sudden drop off is not really shocking or unprecedented.

Fringe top 20 OF is probably what we are looking at for the next year or two. BA will not be this bad all season, but a solid BA and 25 HR power is probably the baseline.
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