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Josh Hamilton's value

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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:14 pm

Matthias wrote:
Yoda wrote:I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.

I gotta side with Cards on this one. Hamilton went later than his value because of a lack of a track record which most people (maybe erroneously, as Cards points out) assumed had to do with his struggles with drugs and not on-the-field injury ala Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or even Nomar.

Cards essential point, I think, is that if there was a mid-season redraft, Hamilton would go in the first 15 or so picks because people would believe that his problems are behind him, whereas Cards still believes there's a residual injury risk which might knock him down a few spots. Not saying that I buy it, but it's a fair point to make.


Fair enough. I also think that he is an injury risk and if I get an offer for a top 15-20 player then I would strongly consider it.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby cards05 » Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:31 pm

Yoda wrote:
cards05 wrote:
If you are so worried about him then how come you didn't trade him already? Seems sort of silly to tell people to worry about his injuries while holding onto him. I'm sure that you can get McLouth or someone better for him.


What your post assumes is that I haven't tried to trade him for top talent, which is false. I'm not getting the type of offers discussed in this thread (Fielder; Tex AND Verlander, Sizemore, etc.). Again, not trying to start an argument here, just trying to offer another prespective. I knew I'd get a post or two like this, but thought it would be worth it to make a point.


What type of offers are you making and not getting?

I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.


Yeah, you may be right. The extent of his injury history may be common knowledge around here and, if it is, I apologize for being redundant. I just know that I was surprised to see just how bad it was when I did my research preseason. Also, it shocked me to see some of the offers (either made or turned down) in this thread, which also led me to believe some were unaware. And like Matthias, I thought his draft position had more to do with track record than injury history.

I know how "rain on the parade" posts can be annoying, so I will make this my final post on the subject, but, like I said, the great thing about most of these threads is that all viewpoints are shared and I hadn't seen anyone expressing caution when offering a guy like Sizemore for him. Personally, I'd be scared to give up such a steady player to take on such risk.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:41 pm

cards05 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
cards05 wrote:[What your post assumes is that I haven't tried to trade him for top talent, which is false. I'm not getting the type of offers discussed in this thread (Fielder; Tex AND Verlander, Sizemore, etc.). Again, not trying to start an argument here, just trying to offer another prespective. I knew I'd get a post or two like this, but thought it would be worth it to make a point.


What type of offers are you making and not getting?

I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.


Yeah, you may be right. The extent of his injury history may be common knowledge around here and, if it is, I apologize for being redundant. I just know that I was surprised to see just how bad it was when I did my research preseason. Also, it shocked me to see some of the offers (either made or turned down) in this thread, which also led me to believe some were unaware. And like Matthias, I thought his draft position had more to do with track record than injury history.

I know how "rain on the parade" posts can be annoying, so I will make this my final post on the subject, but, like I said, the great thing about most of these threads is that all viewpoints are shared and I hadn't seen anyone expressing caution when offering a guy like Sizemore for him. Personally, I'd be scared to give up such a steady player to take on such risk.


I think it really depends on your league set up and also what your team looks like as well.

For instance, in my main money league, I have a ton of players who will get me 10+ SBs so I wouldn't give up Hamilton for Sizemore even though I would under most circumstances. Also, if you already have a solid OF and could afford to gamble on the higher risk/reward Hamilton then I can see someone doing that deal.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:45 pm

Yoda wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Yoda wrote:I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.

I gotta side with Cards on this one. Hamilton went later than his value because of a lack of a track record which most people (maybe erroneously, as Cards points out) assumed had to do with his struggles with drugs and not on-the-field injury ala Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or even Nomar.

Cards essential point, I think, is that if there was a mid-season redraft, Hamilton would go in the first 15 or so picks because people would believe that his problems are behind him, whereas Cards still believes there's a residual injury risk which might knock him down a few spots. Not saying that I buy it, but it's a fair point to make.


Fair enough. I also think that he is an injury risk and if I get an offer for a top 15-20 player then I would strongly consider it.

It would definitely be hard to turn down, if it suited my needs. I think I'd be taking most players drafted in the 2nd Round, yeah.

However, (un)fortunately for me, Hamilton didn't fall to where I liked him in a single draft, and now I'm stuck with him in zero leagues. So, this is a conundrum that I do not have to face, although I would love to.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby RyeWhiskey » Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:30 pm

Frankly, I'm amazed that numerous members have turned down Sizemore for Hamilton - That simply sounds insane. You're talking about a perennial top 25 player - here's an average season (averaged 2005-2007):
641 AB: 121 R, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 26 SB, .285

Now if you look at his performance so far this year, 268 AB: 44 R, 17 HR, 40 RBI, 16 SB, .265, and you double those numbers (which is only 536 AB), he's at:
88 R, 34 HR, 80 RBI, 32 SB, .265

So he's already on pace for well over a 30-30 season. Not saying he will continue at this rate, but I am saying that you're willing to keep a guy who's never played more than 90 games in a season over a perennial 30-30 OF.... and that, my dear friends, is insane.

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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Yoda » Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:44 pm

It doesn't surprise me at all. Hamilton's been better than Sizemore so far this year. A lot of people have "What have you done for me lately?" attitude. Besides that, Hamilton's talent is right up there with Sizemore.

Finally, it also depends on your league and roster makeup. For instance, my current lineup in H2H:
C-McCann
1B-Garko
2B-Phillips
3B-Reynolds
SS-Rollins
MI-Kinsler
CI-Braun
OF-Hamilton, Ludwick, Hart, Quentin, Doumit
U-L.Scott
B-Wigginton
DL-Pujols, Zimmerman

I feel fairly confident in SB each week that trading HR, RBI, AVG for a boost in R, SB doesn't make as much sense for me especially since this is H2H.
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