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Josh Hamilton's value

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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby jfg » Tue Jun 17, 2008 12:23 am

I tried so hard to buy high offering A.Soriano and Putz a month ago after Soriano went on that tear. That would have looked so great right now but instead they sit on my bench. It was a keeper so I wasn't shocked, but I thought he'd take it. He looks pretty smart now.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby cards05 » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:31 am

I was going to keep my mouth shut because I know good and well what the Cafe thinks of Hamilton; it's clear from this thread. But the thing I like most about the leftovers forum is that it generally provides several different viewpoints on a given topic. With that in mind, I'd like to bring up some concerns I have with Josh Hamilton. So, go easy on me Hamilton-ites, I'm just offering up a different viewpoint. And if any of you have facts that should soften my concerns, I'd love to hear them.

With that in mind, I'd like to bring up Hamilton's injury history. It's not quite as bad as Prior's but it's probably as bad as Harden's. If Harden had remained healthy until this point in the season, I couldn't call him a top 3 rounder because of his horrible injury history. That's the same reason I won't call Hamilton a top 3 rounder. And this ignores Hamilton's drug issues, which he still deals with on a daily basis. See http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... ilton0602/

I brought it up in another thread, but here is Hamilton's injury history:

2001: Played in only 27 games (injuries)
2002: Played in only 56 games (lingering back and shoulder injuries)
2003: DNP Drugs
2004: DNP Drugs
2005: DNP Drugs
2006: Played in only 15 games (season-ending left knee injury, for which he underwent arthroscopic surgery)
2007: Played in only 90 games (wrist injury and stomach illness)
2008: Has played in 68 games; so far, so good!

So, he's never played in more than 90 games since 2001. At least Harden made 31 starts in 2004.

Now, consider this quote from Hamilton himself:

"After four years of putting my body through hell," he says, "I'm amazed how well it's held up. I was amazed last year that I even played 90 games."


As he acknowledges, his body has been through more than most and he was surprised he even played in a whopping 90 games last season. I'm amazed nobody is talking about this except for rotoworld, which took a ton of heat for their ranking of him in June. Ironically, it's as if his drug abuse has helped his perceived value. Everyone assumes his one issue was drugs, which he defeated. But as we saw last year, he has another issue: injuries. And, unless you call 68 games a good sample size, he hasn't yet shown that he has defeated the injury issue.

Given these issues and what people are turning down for him, I'd consider offering him up in a trade.

I own him in 2 leagues and will keep rooting for him. But IMO, you guys have crowned him prematurely.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Rman3911 » Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:05 am

8-o
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:43 am

Field wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Sigh....I remember in the draft he was taken 160th overall, and I remember saying "Great pick...you stole my next choice." :-S


Should have drafted him earlier. I took him at 102 in my 11 team league.

Our draft was in like February, way before he made headlines during ST.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:52 am

cards05 wrote:I was going to keep my mouth shut because I know good and well what the Cafe thinks of Hamilton; it's clear from this thread. But the thing I like most about the leftovers forum is that it generally provides several different viewpoints on a given topic. With that in mind, I'd like to bring up some concerns I have with Josh Hamilton. So, go easy on me Hamilton-ites, I'm just offering up a different viewpoint. And if any of you have facts that should soften my concerns, I'd love to hear them.

With that in mind, I'd like to bring up Hamilton's injury history. It's not quite as bad as Prior's but it's probably as bad as Harden's. If Harden had remained healthy until this point in the season, I couldn't call him a top 3 rounder because of his horrible injury history. That's the same reason I won't call Hamilton a top 3 rounder. And this ignores Hamilton's drug issues, which he still deals with on a daily basis. See http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... ilton0602/

I brought it up in another thread, but here is Hamilton's injury history:

2001: Played in only 27 games (injuries)
2002: Played in only 56 games (lingering back and shoulder injuries)
2003: DNP Drugs
2004: DNP Drugs
2005: DNP Drugs
2006: Played in only 15 games (season-ending left knee injury, for which he underwent arthroscopic surgery)
2007: Played in only 90 games (wrist injury and stomach illness)
2008: Has played in 68 games; so far, so good!

So, he's never played in more than 90 games since 2001. At least Harden made 31 starts in 2004.

Now, consider this quote from Hamilton himself:

"After four years of putting my body through hell," he says, "I'm amazed how well it's held up. I was amazed last year that I even played 90 games."


As he acknowledges, his body has been through more than most and he was surprised he even played in a whopping 90 games last season. I'm amazed nobody is talking about this except for rotoworld, which took a ton of heat for their ranking of him in June. Ironically, it's as if his drug abuse has helped his perceived value. Everyone assumes his one issue was drugs, which he defeated. But as we saw last year, he has another issue: injuries. And, unless you call 68 games a good sample size, he hasn't yet shown that he has defeated the injury issue.

Given these issues and what people are turning down for him, I'd consider offering him up in a trade.

I own him in 2 leagues and will keep rooting for him. But IMO, you guys have crowned him prematurely.


The reason why he went so late is due to the fear of injuries so you are preaching to the choir. If you are so worried about him then how come you didn't trade him already? Seems sort of silly to tell people to worry about his injuries while holding onto him. I'm sure that you can get McLouth or someone better for him.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby stumpak » Tue Jun 17, 2008 12:50 pm

cards05 wrote:I was going to keep my mouth shut because I know good and well what the Cafe thinks of Hamilton; it's clear from this thread. But the thing I like most about the leftovers forum is that it generally provides several different viewpoints on a given topic. With that in mind, I'd like to bring up some concerns I have with Josh Hamilton. So, go easy on me Hamilton-ites, I'm just offering up a different viewpoint. And if any of you have facts that should soften my concerns, I'd love to hear them.

With that in mind, I'd like to bring up Hamilton's injury history. It's not quite as bad as Prior's but it's probably as bad as Harden's. If Harden had remained healthy until this point in the season, I couldn't call him a top 3 rounder because of his horrible injury history. That's the same reason I won't call Hamilton a top 3 rounder. And this ignores Hamilton's drug issues, which he still deals with on a daily basis. See http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... ilton0602/

I brought it up in another thread, but here is Hamilton's injury history:

2001: Played in only 27 games (injuries)
2002: Played in only 56 games (lingering back and shoulder injuries)
2003: DNP Drugs
2004: DNP Drugs
2005: DNP Drugs
2006: Played in only 15 games (season-ending left knee injury, for which he underwent arthroscopic surgery)
2007: Played in only 90 games (wrist injury and stomach illness)
2008: Has played in 68 games; so far, so good!

So, he's never played in more than 90 games since 2001. At least Harden made 31 starts in 2004.

Now, consider this quote from Hamilton himself:

"After four years of putting my body through hell," he says, "I'm amazed how well it's held up. I was amazed last year that I even played 90 games."


As he acknowledges, his body has been through more than most and he was surprised he even played in a whopping 90 games last season. I'm amazed nobody is talking about this except for rotoworld, which took a ton of heat for their ranking of him in June. Ironically, it's as if his drug abuse has helped his perceived value. Everyone assumes his one issue was drugs, which he defeated. But as we saw last year, he has another issue: injuries. And, unless you call 68 games a good sample size, he hasn't yet shown that he has defeated the injury issue.

Given these issues and what people are turning down for him, I'd consider offering him up in a trade.

I own him in 2 leagues and will keep rooting for him. But IMO, you guys have crowned him prematurely.


One part of this hypothesis I dispute is that the drug years somehow degraded him physically for baseball. Sure his liver may go to soup by the time he is 45 and his kidneys are probably petrified, but I don't see how 3 years of drug use impacts the baseball parts of his body any worse than actually playing baseball. If anything, he saved a lot of mileage on the parts that most often breakdown: knees, hips, shoulders, elbows and back.

Like most any player, Hamilton is not risk-free, but I sure like the risk-reward equation with him moving forward.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby cards05 » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:29 pm

If you are so worried about him then how come you didn't trade him already? Seems sort of silly to tell people to worry about his injuries while holding onto him. I'm sure that you can get McLouth or someone better for him.


What your post assumes is that I haven't tried to trade him for top talent, which is false. I'm not getting the type of offers discussed in this thread (Fielder; Tex AND Verlander, Sizemore, etc.). Again, not trying to start an argument here, just trying to offer another prespective. I knew I'd get a post or two like this, but thought it would be worth it to make a point.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby matthos » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:52 pm

If the season ended today, he would be a keeper for me ahead of Soriano, Vlad, Granderson, and perhaps Beltran.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:53 pm

cards05 wrote:
If you are so worried about him then how come you didn't trade him already? Seems sort of silly to tell people to worry about his injuries while holding onto him. I'm sure that you can get McLouth or someone better for him.


What your post assumes is that I haven't tried to trade him for top talent, which is false. I'm not getting the type of offers discussed in this thread (Fielder; Tex AND Verlander, Sizemore, etc.). Again, not trying to start an argument here, just trying to offer another prespective. I knew I'd get a post or two like this, but thought it would be worth it to make a point.


What type of offers are you making and not getting?

I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.
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Re: Josh Hamilton's value

Postby Matthias » Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:02 pm

Yoda wrote:I honestly do not think that people are really unaware of his injury history. The reason why he went so late in the first place is because he is a big injury risk.

I gotta side with Cards on this one. Hamilton went later than his value because of a lack of a track record which most people (maybe erroneously, as Cards points out) assumed had to do with his struggles with drugs and not on-the-field injury ala Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or even Nomar.

Cards essential point, I think, is that if there was a mid-season redraft, Hamilton would go in the first 15 or so picks because people would believe that his problems are behind him, whereas Cards still believes there's a residual injury risk which might knock him down a few spots. Not saying that I buy it, but it's a fair point to make.
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