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This makes me very excited

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This makes me very excited

Postby jfg » Tue May 27, 2008 5:45 pm

From Nate Silver's Baseball Prospectus Chat today:

uptick (st. louis): when's the next PFM update?

Nate Silver: We *might* run a mid-season update, but generally speaking, we stop running updates once we get a month or so into the season and most every fantasy league has drafted. One of these year's we'll get real-time PECOTA projections going.


Real Time PECOTA, mmm... Even if that does take a couple years I hope that mid-season update is a completely new PECOTA projection. That would be amazing!
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby Kingctb27 » Tue May 27, 2008 6:20 pm

Meh. Not going to knock anyone who uses Petcota, but for the ppl who do use it don't you feel like it's a pretty cheap way to play fantasy baseball? I just don't know if I'd have that much satisfaction if I looked at someone else's ranking to do my draft for me.

Thoughts?

(Not directed at you in any way jfg, just had to get that off my chest. I have drafted many leagues with guys who basically just use Petcota for their teams. It just bugs me.)
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Tue May 27, 2008 6:24 pm

Kingctb27 wrote:Meh. Not going to knock anyone who uses Petcota, but for the ppl who do use it don't you feel like it's a pretty cheap way to play fantasy baseball? I just don't know if I'd have that much satisfaction if I looked at someone else's ranking to do my draft for me.

Thoughts?

(Not directed at you in any way jfg, just had to get that off my chest. I have drafted many leagues with guys who basically just use Petcota for their teams. It just bugs me.)


I guess I kind of agree. I spend a lot of time in the offseason listening to everything and everyone's take on the upcoming season. Then my final draft strategy and player projections are a mixture of all the opinion and my own spin.
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby jfg » Tue May 27, 2008 7:59 pm

It wouldn't change much other than breakouts and prospects. A half a season isn't going to change veterans PECOTA line too much. It would be nice to see comparables of players who weren't hyped or post-hype players.

For me, PECOTA and BP is not just a fantasy baseball tool as I enjoy reading it and looking at their predictions as a baseball fan. But, it's been great for me so obviously I'm going to use it and not look back just like I use the Cafe and don't look back.
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby pappymojo » Tue May 27, 2008 9:51 pm

I also like to use it to base other peoples projections, to pinpoint players who might be undervalued or overvalued based on their Petcota numbers. It's just another tool to give you another perspective on players.
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby flloyd » Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:07 pm

I've been very bummed that they've failed to provide in-season rankings though as promised.

"Statistics To Use: in the preseason, only the PECOTA forecasts are available, but as the season progresses, we hope to make the season to date statistics available, allowing you to evaluate a player's performance thus far in the season"

And yes, I think more continual PECOTA updates would be very valuable, particularly for young players with less of a track record or players doing really well in the minors.

As far as unfair advantage I don't see how it is any less fair than relying on ESPN, CBS, Yahoo's, etc preseason rankings. They just have a reputation for being more accurate. If that's worth $20 to you then you should feel free to go right ahead. IS it unfair that the Red Sox hired Bill James? In the end they are supposed to be more accurate but still some of their projections have been WAY off. Milledge as the sixth best OF and Matt Stairs as the 20th best OF? Not quite.
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Re: This makes me very excited

Postby jfg » Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:11 pm

I don't think the poster was saying it was unfair, but rather that it makes playing fantasy sports less fun if somebody treats the projections like the bible and doesn't have any of their own thoughts. I disagree because after years of using PECOTA you still need to think about the flaws in the system and how you're going to build your team. It's just a tool like anything else, but IMO it's the best one out there.
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