I'll go the conservative route....that way there is no disappointment. Its kinda silly to have lofty expecations on young rookies....you're just setting yourself up for disaster/disappointment.
rotoquest wrote:Depending on where he hits in the lineup (I'm guessing #2) I have him around: 70 R 16 HR 50 RBI 16 SB .295 avg
I think you're expecting too many SB's - far too many in fact. I wouldn't be surprised to see less than 5 attempts the rest of the year.[/quote]
He has 8 in 49 games this year at triple A. I was optimistically projecting for 100 games, but I didn't account for the dusty factor.[/quote]
Not really the Dusty factor - just minor league SB's that won't translate. Look at past years. Then look at Votto's lofty SB numbers from MiLB - and furthermore his MLB SB #'s.
You should correct that title to "Jay Bruce getting called UP" because I can't pick him up until he is technically called up so I got tricked, lol. Please find me an article saying he is called up now so I can use it as proof in my league, thanks, lol.
You shouldn't expect too many SB's, generally guys have to learn pitchers' moves and get a better feel for the majors before they really start stealing bases. Also, they generally focus their time on hitting and scouting out pitchers' repertoires rather than their pickoff moves and timing...all in all, I agree with the poster who said it would be optimistic to expect double-digit steals. I think Bruce's line will be about 300 AB, .280, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 45 R, 6 SB.
TonyCee wrote:You should correct that title to "Jay Bruce getting called UP" because I can't pick him up until he is technically called up so I got tricked, lol. Please find me an article saying he is called up now so I can use it as proof in my league, thanks, lol.
Im wondering where you guys are getting your projections from. I understand that age is probably the biggest negative going against him, but aside from that, doesnt he project to be a +.300 hitter given the usual minor league projection techniques? Also, hasnt there been an awful lot of players that have made immediate impacts in the majors after first getting called up?
Maybe its just me, but I can see Bruce hitting closer to .300 this yr considering he was the minor league player of the year in 2007 and the type of stats he was putting up so far this yr.
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im wondering where you guys are getting your projections from. I understand that age is probably the biggest negative going against him, but aside from that, doesnt he project to be a +.300 hitter given the usual minor league projection techniques? Also, hasnt there been an awful lot of players that have made immediate impacts in the majors after first getting called up?
Maybe its just me, but I can see Bruce hitting closer to .300 this yr considering he was the minor league player of the year in 2007 and the type of stats he was putting up so far this yr.
He could maybe hit .300 in his prime after he gets a better judgement for the strike zone and takes a bit more walks. But his biggest negative is what a lot of power hitting prospects have, don't walk enough and K to much. He made a bit of progress lately with the K's, but that isnt to say it won't be a problem at the major league level. Could he hit close to .300? Sure, he could get really hot for a couple months as pitchers adjust. It's just more likely he will have more tough times than good times.
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by RJ24VC15 » Mon May 26, 2008 8:44 pm 
