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Revised TOP 25?

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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby great gretzky » Fri May 23, 2008 9:52 am

well, I don't think its implausable, and I think matthias may be right -- in part. I just take exception to the notion that he would be better for next year or the rest of the year.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby TheBambino » Fri May 23, 2008 10:00 am

Why Is Ichiro not in there? I like him more the Ellsbury!
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Matthias » Fri May 23, 2008 10:31 am

great gretzky wrote:But again, let's say that happens, Youkilis will have to keep up the .320 average and Howard would have to end up around .250 for this to be a "pick em" in my opinion.

That's basically what I'm expecting. That Youkilis will finish the year over .300 and with Howard's awful K-rate, he struggles to finish over .240.

If Howard continues K'ing at a 40% clip, and hits 50 HRs over 600 ABs, and has a league-average BABIP of .310, and he walks 90 times, he finishes the year hitting .232. That right there is my concern.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Matthias » Fri May 23, 2008 10:38 am

Oh, FWIW, I tried trading for Youkilis last night in my league (which counts AVG & OBP).

I offered up Zimmerman since he was the only guy I was unhappy with; got rejected (by the guy in 1st place) pretty quickly. He said he he ran some value models on hitters a few days ago and realized Youkilis was #5 in the league.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Tavish » Fri May 23, 2008 10:39 am

Matthias wrote:Oh, FWIW, I tried trading for Youkilis last night in my league (which counts AVG & OBP).

I offered up Zimmerman since he was the only guy I was unhappy with; got rejected (by the guy in 1st place) pretty quickly.

I would be willing to bet that if you had Howard to offer for Youk instead of Zimmerman it wouldn't be rejected nearly as quickly. ;-)
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby great gretzky » Fri May 23, 2008 10:40 am

it's a concern. I am just saying the "ifs" surrounding Youkilis seem more of a reach than figuring howard turns it on, as he did last year, and finishes reasonable. Even figuring at .250, I'm hard pressed to see how if we grant the counting stats you are arguing for (you may well be right, so I don't care really), howard has a whole allstar month on youkilis at the end of the season. And like I said before, the if we are worried about with Howard, basically corrected itself (to a degree) last year, where there are five "ifs" with Youkilis' stat line, as he hasn't done what your projections are yet, in any of them.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Yoda » Fri May 23, 2008 10:45 am

Yanks_Baby wrote:
Yoda wrote:Actually gave some thought to Matthias's nomination of Youkilis. It's refreshing to hear some different names that no one else is touting. While I think that he won't be top 25 by season's end, he could sneak up there and shows what a quietly great season he is having so far.

I'm shocked to hear you say that Yoda...You know he started last year off even better than this year...and look at how he ended...

I thought you're all about the splits and historical stats?


First of all, I'm not saying that he will finish 25 or anywhere near it. I am saying that he could which is totally different.

Also, Youk is entering his power peak stage so you should expect a spike. He's hit 42, 35 2B in the last two seasons and it's not completely unreasonable to expect some of those to turn into HRs as he peaks.

Again, I'm not saying that he should be on top 25 or be better than Howard but he still has a chance to be up there provided that he doesn't completely fall apart.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Matthias » Fri May 23, 2008 10:54 am

Tavish wrote:
Matthias wrote:Oh, FWIW, I tried trading for Youkilis last night in my league (which counts AVG & OBP).

I offered up Zimmerman since he was the only guy I was unhappy with; got rejected (by the guy in 1st place) pretty quickly.

I would be willing to bet that if you had Howard to offer for Youk instead of Zimmerman it wouldn't be rejected nearly as quickly. ;-)

Well, my CI guy is Votto. I thought about offering him for Howard a week or so ago since the guy owning Howard has been miserable. There was a little bit of keeper influence (Votto would've been $10 to keep vs. $35 for Howard) but I also just decided Howard's season wasn't something I wanted to get involved with.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Tavish » Fri May 23, 2008 11:03 am

Matthias wrote:
Tavish wrote:
Matthias wrote:Oh, FWIW, I tried trading for Youkilis last night in my league (which counts AVG & OBP).

I offered up Zimmerman since he was the only guy I was unhappy with; got rejected (by the guy in 1st place) pretty quickly.

I would be willing to bet that if you had Howard to offer for Youk instead of Zimmerman it wouldn't be rejected nearly as quickly. ;-)

Well, my CI guy is Votto. I thought about offering him for Howard a week or so ago since the guy owning Howard has been miserable. There was a little bit of keeper influence (Votto would've been $10 to keep vs. $35 for Howard) but I also just decided Howard's season wasn't something I wanted to get involved with.

I can't blame you there. I've never owned Howard simply because he has too much of a Dunn/Sexson look to him. The power will be there but hitting .230 never is out of the question. That .313 in 2006 will keep people taking him fairly high just for the chance he regains that form.
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Re: Revised TOP 25?

Postby Kingctb27 » Fri May 23, 2008 12:37 pm

Youk getting top 25 consideration is absurd, IMO. His track record says he is a hot starter, then ends falling apart after May/June.

He'll be lucky to get 25 homers this year. Someone picking him over Howard is just ludacris. While everyone knows the K's are going to be there with Ryan, he's actually already ahead of last year's 45+ homer pace.
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