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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 28, 2004 1:48 pm

LBJackal wrote:Detroit had 46 save opps last season. 20% of those usually do not go to the closer (In general, not just for Detroit). So 80% of 46 is ~37 save opps for Detroit closers. That's assuming one guy has the role for the whole season. If he's flawless, and doesn't blow a single save, he'd get 37 saves. I don't see any Detroit closer topping 20 saves. Last year the entire team combined for 27 saves. :-o


Jackal, you do not want to get me started on this.

If Detroit has a guy that holds onto the closer role, he will get 20+ saves easily with an upside to 30. If you dont think that is fanatasy worthy, I dont know what to say. Your top closer on your Cafe Challenge team didnt have more than 15 last yr, btw. With the nature of the position, a decent closer does not have to play for a good team. L. Carter, D. Baez, S. Williamson, D. Kolb, J. Jiminez, R. Beck - all saved 20 or more games for teams that didnt have good seasons last yr.
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Feb 28, 2004 5:56 pm

Last year the team combined for 27 saves and you're saying ONE PLAYER who is young, unproven, and had a 6.00+ ERA last year can save more than the entire team did last year? I'm not buying that at all. I don't think you understand how few save opps their closer, even if he holds the job all year, will receive. Usually it's about 80% of the opps. The rest are blown saves which occur in the 8th, etc, which aren't even realistic save opps for strictly 9th inning guys. 80% of those 27 saves is ~22 for a guy who theoretically will hold the job all season, assuming the bullpen is as efficient as last season. I highly doubt any Tiger will save more than 20 games this season, unless he pulls a Gagne and has the role for the whole season.

I know it's nice to think that the Tigers will have a good closer just because the team is better offensively, but they don't HAVE a good closer, they have 3 mediocre relievers who are being thrown into a closer competition of sorts. If Rodney is healthy all season, and retains the closer role all season, and cuts his ERA in half from last year, he will be lucky to crack 20 saves. That's best case scenario. And those three things are very unlikely to all happen. Do you have any reason to believe one of their closers will even approach 30 saves, or is it just wishful thinking? Any evidence to back it up?
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Postby NZF » Sat Feb 28, 2004 6:26 pm

LBJackal wrote: and Julio is the worst closer in baseball. If he keeps his job, he'll have a terrible ERA/WHIP and don't think that won't affect your overall ERA/WHIP, because it will. Especially in H2H.



That is a crazy thing to say about a guy who is still only 25 and has got 2 year combined stats like he has 2002- 2003 since becoming a closer on a lousy team that just got much better.

ERA 3.12 WHIP 1.35 SAVES 61 IP 129.2 K'S 107

You obviously had him on your fantasy team last year and you are still hurting. :-D
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Feb 28, 2004 7:01 pm

No, I didn't have Julio, and thank God for that. He was OK as an unknown in 2002, but 2003 was a different story. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse closer that is considered a good fantasy closer. Looper is probably one of them. Guys like Mesa and Rodney I don't consider in the balloting for worst closer, because either they're not good enough to be drafted in most leagues, or there isn't a large enough sample size of MLB action. Anyways this is kinda irrelevant because I was just implying that Julio is a terrible closer.
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Postby KPucks » Sat Feb 28, 2004 7:17 pm

I think we need to start a poll for the worst closer ever. Lets get a list going:

Julio
Mesa
Mike Williams (umm... an all-star w/ a 6+ era... wow)

add more and we'll start a poll
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 28, 2004 9:25 pm

LBJackal wrote:Last year the team combined for 27 saves and you're saying ONE PLAYER who is young, unproven, and had a 6.00+ ERA last year can save more than the entire team did last year? I'm not buying that at all. I don't think you understand how few save opps their closer, even if he holds the job all year, will receive. Usually it's about 80% of the opps. The rest are blown saves which occur in the 8th, etc, which aren't even realistic save opps for strictly 9th inning guys. 80% of those 27 saves is ~22 for a guy who theoretically will hold the job all season, assuming the bullpen is as efficient as last season. I highly doubt any Tiger will save more than 20 games this season, unless he pulls a Gagne and has the role for the whole season.

I know it's nice to think that the Tigers will have a good closer just because the team is better offensively, but they don't HAVE a good closer, they have 3 mediocre relievers who are being thrown into a closer competition of sorts. If Rodney is healthy all season, and retains the closer role all season, and cuts his ERA in half from last year, he will be lucky to crack 20 saves. That's best case scenario. And those three things are very unlikely to all happen. Do you have any reason to believe one of their closers will even approach 30 saves, or is it just wishful thinking? Any evidence to back it up?


First of all, we have actual major league players this yr, so that 119 loss team last yr pretty much doesnt tell me a thing about what they are going to do this yr. Unless you dont think that upgrading over half the offense and plugging the defensive holes on defense, wont get us any more save opps. 27 combined saves from last yrs team tells us nothing about this yrs chances, although you did put a lot of effort into the 27x.8=22 argument, it simply started from a misconception.
Now, about my comment - I said IF a DET closer holds onto the job. Its a pretty big IF at this point too. I think all 3 have the ability, but the experience is a whole nother problem.

I will turn it back on you: Do you have any evidence to think that Detroit will not improve on last yrs 27 save opps performance? Surely you dont think that after all the upgrades we have made that this team will once again lose 119 games do you?
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Feb 28, 2004 10:41 pm

Yes, I agree the Tigers are improved and will provide more save opps. But they don't have a guy that will hold the job all year. They have 3 mediocre guys. Of course if you say *if* they hold the job all year and *if* the Tigers greatly increase their save opps then the closer *might* get 30 saves. But they probably won't do any of those things. That's why I'm avoiding their closers. There's no point in using hypothetical situations when they are highly unlikely to occur.

I can say with confidence that no Detroit closer will get 20 saves this season. To insist that 30 is possible is ridiculous. Last season their save leaders were Chris Mears and Franklyn German, who had 5 apiece. Adding a few mediocre infielders and Pudge is not going to quadruple that number.
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Postby NZF » Sat Feb 28, 2004 11:17 pm

KPucks wrote:I think we need to start a poll for the worst closer ever. Lets get a list going:

Julio
Mesa
Mike Williams (umm... an all-star w/ a 6+ era... wow)

add more and we'll start a poll


Actually lets put this Mesa talk as the worst closer ever in the game into some sort of perspective. Primarily why do you draft a closer? SAVES right.

Mesa got 87 saves in 2001 and 2002 combined. Last year he stunk the place up bad but give the guy some credit for two years of save and ERA numbers that were as good as any of the premier closers in the game. I do admit though he has always had a terrible WHIP and just loves to make things interesting in the 9th even when it should be easy. I think he just liked seeing Larry froth at the mouth. :-)

The thing about a genuine crap closer is he is never around long enough for people to remember he was crap.
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Postby justinA » Sat Feb 28, 2004 11:22 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Id put Percival in teir 4. But other than that its about right.

doesnt he have a really bad hip? I heard it could drive him out of the game in the next few years.
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