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Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby anti elian » Fri May 23, 2008 1:22 pm

I think Ellsbury is going to slow down a lot in SBs. A 97% SB success rate is pretty unsustainable, especially if he starts pushing 40+ attempts. Reyes had a 78% success rate last season, and I think Brian Roberts and Eric Byrnes were the best among the 40+ guys with an 87% success rate. Historically, you have the rare season like Ichiro in 2006 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/161. On top of that, I'm really surprised the Sox are letting him run so much. I think once he gets caught stealing a few more times the moneyballers in Boston will turn off the green light. My projections:

280 BA 115 Runs 60 RBIs 10 HRs 40 SBs
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby quitesanemax » Fri May 23, 2008 3:35 pm

He has been caught once in his major league career. That one he got caught offguard with a pitchout. The guy is just seriously fast. Last year, against the Yankees he got caught leading too much at first base. The pitcher threw it to 1st, and I turned away thinking he was out. Once he realizes hes caught he runs to 2nd base. He managed to get to 2nd base safely! The pitcher throws it to the 1st baseman, and the 1st baseman throws it to the 2nd baseman, hes already at 2nd... no error! Hes fast.

And hes smart. The kid knows how to run the bases...

The Red Sox have changed. Its not just Elsbury their letting run. I've never seen so many players stealing bases on that team. The other day Big Papi tried to steal a base! He got caught, but the point is they are not afraid to let their guys steal bases this year. I wouldn't expect them to let up. After all, its working. Its producing runs.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jfg » Fri May 23, 2008 4:32 pm

Yoda wrote:Yahoo 10 team private $$$ league (Keeper), currently 1st in SB (3 ahead):
McCann
Pujols
Kinsler
Zimmerman
Rollins (missed almost a month)
Reynolds
Phillips
Quentin
Braun
Holliday
Hamilton
Delmon
Ludwick
Konerko

ESPN 12 team private $$$ league (keeper), currently 4th in SB (3 behind 1st):
Ianetta
A.Gordon
Pedroia
MCab
F.Lopez (Furcal on DL)
Kinsler
Pujols
CBYoung
Hart
Hamilton
Delmon
JUpton
Butler

Yahoo 12 team Pub, 1st in SB (9 ahead):
Soto
Teixeira
Kinsler
Wright
Barmes (Furcal on DL)
Hamliton
Markakis
Hart
BJUpton
Weeks
[/quote][/quote]

All of those teams are impossible to own in a redraft so I really don't know what you are trying to prove. Your public league is obviously filled with fantasy baseball idiots.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri May 23, 2008 4:38 pm

The public doesn't seem that out of the ordinary.

His draft probably went:

1-Wright
2-Tex
3-Upton
4-Markakis
5-7- Hart and Kinsler
8-13-Furcal, Hamilton and Weeks
14-16-Soto
FA-Barmes
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yoda » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:02 pm

So assuming he finishes with a generous line of:
.280-100-10-60-50

What round does he belong for the 09 draft?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby ataraxia » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:07 pm

He's like Chone Figgins except he doesn't have 2B eligibility. Probably 10th. Not that I'd take an OF that can't hit 20HR.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:09 pm

Yoda wrote:So assuming he finishes with a generous line of:
.280-100-10-60-50

What round does he belong for the 09 draft?


My opinion hasn't changed much. I'd say he's a late third early fourth rounder in a basic 12-man league. Those are basically Diet Carl Crawford (in stores now) numbers.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:11 pm

Yoda wrote:So assuming he finishes with a generous line of:
.280-100-10-60-50

What round does he belong for the 09 draft?


Well, in a near-average season, Crawford posts a .300-100-13-70-50 line and takes second round. So Ellsbury appears to be Crawford-lite... I'd say he'll go in the late third/early fourth because he plays for Boston and therefore is immediately overrated. His value would place him later, but you probably won't get him if you wait - personally, I'd pass.

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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby WyldStallyn » Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:15 pm

let a sox fan take him far too early
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Giambis » Mon Jul 28, 2008 5:05 pm

WyldStallyn wrote:let a sox fan take him far too early


I'm a sox fan, and even I won't take him third or 4th round. Useful comp for me is Victorino.
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