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Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed May 21, 2008 9:06 pm

I think the Pierre comparisons are nonsense. In his best year Pierre hit 3 HRs, while Ellsbury has 4 HR already this year. Ellsbury is on pace for 15 HR in fewer than 500 ABs (about the same rate in his 2 month stint last year). When he starts he leads off, so logically assuming he gets the full time gig next year he'll get 600-650 ABs... seems like a pretty good bet for 15-20 HRs in 2009. I think comparing him to Carl Crawford makes sense - heck, in his first full year Crawford only hit 5 HRs, followed by 11 and 15 in his next two years (after which he became a 1st or 2nd round pick).

If Ellsbury gets to 15 HRs, the one thing that will prevent him from being a second round pick is only having a 1+ year track record. I think he has every chance to be a 3rd round pick on average next year. Obviously there will be those who philosophically disagree with drafting high steals guys because of injury risk or whatever, but there will be as many or more who will draft steals because they are more statistically more scarce than HRs.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed May 21, 2008 9:29 pm

Matthias wrote:The earliest I would even not make fun of someone for taking Ellsbury next year is the 7th round, maybe higher an OBP league.

Crawford's and Reyes' draft position has always been based upon scarcity and promise.

Everyone has been waiting for the last 3 years for Crawford to really break out powerwise. After 2005 when he hit 15, it was thought, "Ok, he's getting into his power years... he could be a 25HR, 60steals guy" with good average, great runs, and good RBIs. It was a pretty unique skill set. And that never happened. At this point, I think people draft Crawford high because they're used to doing so, not that he actually gives you that kind of value.

With Reyes, three straight years of 60+ steals, and last year's 78, is pretty tough to ignore, especially at a kind of thin SS position. It was also thought this year that the Mets offense would be pretty decent so his Runs and RBIs would be high.

And both of these were being drafted high when steals was really rare, rare enough that they could single-handedly put you into the top 3 in a league. This year there's Bourn, there's Ellsbury, there's Hanley, there's Gomez, there's Ichiro ... stolen bases as a category is much deeper and so each steal is much less valuable.

So no, Ellsbury is not a 1st/2nd rounder next year. You're welcome to him if you want him, though.


I agree with most of this post, but the fact that there are a few more big steals guys isn't making steals more scarce (and this is even with the overall drop in HRs in MLB). Why do I say this? Because the ratio of HRs to SBs in my two leagues is higher right now than over the course of last season. This is an oversimplification and small sample size, but I'm guessing its pretty representative. If there were that many more steals available, you'd expect to see the ratio of HRs, runs, and RBIs to steals decreasing, not increasing. It is this scarcity of steals in the first place that makes them so valuable.

Now I'll grant that having more big-steal guys will make it easier for each team in the league to get one of those guys and be competitive in steals, but steals are at least as scarce as they used to be and this still makes each steal significantly more valuable than each HR, run, and RBI when determining a players worth.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yoda » Wed May 21, 2008 9:40 pm

Bloody Sox wrote: there will be as many or more who will draft steals because they are more statistically more scarce than HRs.


Fine by me. The more the merrier. In fact, I hope 25 guys get 50 SBs this year and all go top 50 next year.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby thedude » Thu May 22, 2008 2:22 am

Tavish wrote:
thedude wrote:Where would you draft a .305 BA, 115 run, 10 home run, 50 steal, 70 rbi guy?


A little after Ichiro. I don't expect Ellsbury to hit .305 or drive in 70 so I would take him well after Ichiro.



Well Lugo (hitting .220) in about 350 lead off abs for the Red Sox last year had 44 rbis. At 550 abs that is 69 rbis. Damon had 67, 94, and 75 rbis his last three years in Boston. Ellsbury could reach 70 rbis. If he continues to hit the occasional homer and if he has a .300 batting average (he is sitting at .290 right now and had a .313 minor league batting average in over 1000 at bats).

I don't see Ellsbury hitting 20 homers or driving in 90 rbis, but 70 rbis and a .300 average are very attainable.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby thedude » Thu May 22, 2008 2:44 am

Yanks_Baby wrote:I think Jacoby is a solid 6th or 7thround pick. But I'm not sure he;s worth anything more than that. There's an abundance of speed all of a sudden, I don't know where it's from, but it';s there, and that makes Ellsbury woth even less. Plus he's a rookie and could flop. Also, he has very little power. I'd say he should be drafted a little before Jaun pierre, because of the small power advantage he has over him. So he'll just crack the top 100.



Pierre has not scored 100 runs since 2004 (this year he is on pace for 69). Jacoby will score probably 110 runs and could score 120 (he is on pace for 138), so Pierre does not compare to Ellsbury there.

Pierre did not have a homer in 668 at bats last year. He had 3 in 699 abs in 2006, which was a career high (in 2005 he had 2, and twice had years when he only hit 1 homer). Jacoby has 7 homers in 254 career abs. So Ellsbury has nearly as large a power edge in homers over Pierre as Adam Dunn has to Aaron Rowand.

Rbis? Pierre had 41 last year and 40 the year before (if you read my above post you will note that Ellsbury could drive in 70 and should have at least 60 (that is a floor). So Ellsbury rbi edge is about 20 to 25, which is similar difference between Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham.

They should have similar steal numbers only because Peirre runs so much, but Jacoby is a better base runner having a 97% career success rate compared to Juan's 75% career success rate.

I would also expect both to have similar batting averages.

But Jacoby blows away Pierre in 3 cats and is his equal in the other two.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jdsun1 » Fri May 23, 2008 7:00 am

HipHipJorge wrote:Gomez over Ells is ridiculous.


Not really, but since you are an obvious Ellsbury homer its going to take more to get through to you.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri May 23, 2008 7:39 am

Yoda wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote: there will be as many or more who will draft steals because they are more statistically more scarce than HRs.


Fine by me. The more the merrier. In fact, I hope 25 guys get 50 SBs this year and all go top 50 next year.

I agree with you totally, but not everyone does, and that is what makes these guys worth so much - and the logic of the pro-steals guys is based on scarcity. That said, this year I only drafted 20-steal type guys (Granderson, Hart, Weeks, etc.) and found that based on my projections that I would get killed in steals compared to everyone else... there's only so many of those mid-steal guys to go around. As a result, I had to go grab Pierre off free agency and trade for Victorino (as I was rock bottom in steals after a month)
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Tavish » Fri May 23, 2008 9:01 am

thedude wrote:
Tavish wrote:
thedude wrote:Where would you draft a .305 BA, 115 run, 10 home run, 50 steal, 70 rbi guy?


A little after Ichiro. I don't expect Ellsbury to hit .305 or drive in 70 so I would take him well after Ichiro.



Well Lugo (hitting .220) in about 350 lead off abs for the Red Sox last year had 44 rbis. At 550 abs that is 69 rbis. Damon had 67, 94, and 75 rbis his last three years in Boston. Ellsbury could reach 70 rbis. If he continues to hit the occasional homer and if he has a .300 batting average (he is sitting at .290 right now and had a .313 minor league batting average in over 1000 at bats).

I don't see Ellsbury hitting 20 homers or driving in 90 rbis, but 70 rbis and a .300 average are very attainable.

I don't disagree that those numbers are attainable. They just are not my expectation for the guy and that is what I would draft him based on. I definitely see him coming closer to the 70 RBI (high 50s/low 60s) than I do the .305 BA (high .270s/low .280s). That puts him more in Brian Roberts territory in my mind than Ichiro. I would start looking at him somewhere around the 5th round.

There is certainly plenty of season left though for him to make more of a believer out of me.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yoda » Fri May 23, 2008 9:06 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote: there will be as many or more who will draft steals because they are more statistically more scarce than HRs.


Fine by me. The more the merrier. In fact, I hope 25 guys get 50 SBs this year and all go top 50 next year.

I agree with you totally, but not everyone does, and that is what makes these guys worth so much - and the logic of the pro-steals guys is based on scarcity. That said, this year I only drafted 20-steal type guys (Granderson, Hart, Weeks, etc.) and found that based on my projections that I would get killed in steals compared to everyone else... there's only so many of those mid-steal guys to go around. As a result, I had to go grab Pierre off free agency and trade for Victorino (as I was rock bottom in steals after a month)



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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby quitesanemax » Fri May 23, 2008 12:39 pm

Even if Jacoby has an excellent year this year, with 70 SBs, with a .300 average, I would think he would need to do that for a few years before he becomes a 1st or 2nd rounder. I am high on Jacoby, but I agree with the majority. No way I pick him up that early in next year's draft. If he does it again next year, then he has more value...

Really, we need a few years to see what this kid is going to do. How many times have we seen a rookie with great potential be a bust... or even after they have a great rookie season, how many times do we see the sophmore slump? Not everyone can be Hanley Ramirez! Lol.
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