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Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby brock middlebrook » Wed May 21, 2008 4:57 pm

Let's reverse this -- If a guy has potential to hit 50-70 HRs and steal 10 bases, what round would he go in?

ahh...but you say with HRs you get RBIs and R to go with it.

Looking at Boston's lineup, Ellsbury has potential hold his own in run production with most 2nd tier guys.
I've never been a fan of SB guys (I've never owned CC or JP or even JR) and always considered them overvalued. With Ellsbury, though, He could be a potentially solid #2 or #3 outfielder.

I call him a 5-7th rounder, with potential to move up if he establishes owner confidence in a .290+, 110, 10, 60, 60+ type of line.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed May 21, 2008 5:04 pm

brock middlebrook wrote:Let's reverse this -- If a guy has potential to hit 50-70 HRs and steal 10 bases, what round would he go in?

ahh...but you say with HRs you get RBIs and R to go with it.

Looking at Boston's lineup, Ellsbury has potential hold his own in run production with most 2nd tier guys.
I've never been a fan of SB guys (I've never owned CC or JP or even JR) and always considered them overvalued. With Ellsbury, though, He could be a potentially solid #2 or #3 outfielder.

I call him a 5-7th rounder, with potential to move up if he establishes owner confidence in a .290+, 110, 10, 60, 60+ type of line.

HR in my league get me R's, HR's, RBI's, 4 TB's, and a hit to improve my average.

That's a TON of cats. A SB is just an SB.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yoda » Wed May 21, 2008 5:21 pm

brock middlebrook wrote:Let's reverse this -- If a guy has potential to hit 50-70 HRs and steal 10 bases, what round would he go in?

ahh...but you say with HRs you get RBIs and R to go with it.

Looking at Boston's lineup, Ellsbury has potential hold his own in run production with most 2nd tier guys.
I've never been a fan of SB guys (I've never owned CC or JP or even JR) and always considered them overvalued. With Ellsbury, though, He could be a potentially solid #2 or #3 outfielder.

I call him a 5-7th rounder, with potential to move up if he establishes owner confidence in a .290+, 110, 10, 60, 60+ type of line.


Here is the thing, I'd rather draft a bunch of guys who can get 12+ SBs instead of picking someone like Ellsbury and count on him to get 60 SBs.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Field » Wed May 21, 2008 5:36 pm

Yoda wrote:
brock middlebrook wrote:Let's reverse this -- If a guy has potential to hit 50-70 HRs and steal 10 bases, what round would he go in?

ahh...but you say with HRs you get RBIs and R to go with it.

Looking at Boston's lineup, Ellsbury has potential hold his own in run production with most 2nd tier guys.
I've never been a fan of SB guys (I've never owned CC or JP or even JR) and always considered them overvalued. With Ellsbury, though, He could be a potentially solid #2 or #3 outfielder.

I call him a 5-7th rounder, with potential to move up if he establishes owner confidence in a .290+, 110, 10, 60, 60+ type of line.


Here is the thing, I'd rather draft a bunch of guys who can get 12+ SBs instead of picking someone like Ellsbury and count on him to get 60 SBs.


I agree with you about drafting SBs across your lineup, but you almost need to have one guy who has the ability to get you 30-35+ if you want to be in the top 3 in the category (as we all try to do going into the season). Although, I'm not saying Ellsbury is that guy by any means.

Regarding the original post, if Hart was drafted in the 4-5th round this year then I don't see how Ellsbury could be drafted much higher next year, with his limited power potential. Ichiro, who has been a perennial 2nd round selection warranted or not, has a much higher expected BA than Ellsbury so a first or second round grade just isn't going to happen. I also agree that since the SB isn't nearly as scarce as it's been in years past, which downgrades some of the more elite base stealers.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby HipHipJorge » Wed May 21, 2008 7:17 pm

HR
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jfg » Wed May 21, 2008 7:27 pm

I don't think he can be compared to Byrnes because this isn't a fluke. Eric Byrnes went low in drafts because nobody expected it to happen again.

Brian Roberts without 2B elig? 10-15 more SB might cancel out that elig. since 2b isn't that shallow anyway, so that seems like a good spot to value Ellsbury at and Roberts normally went in the 3rd round this year.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed May 21, 2008 7:28 pm

jfg wrote:I don't think he can be compared to Byrnes because this isn't a fluke. Eric Byrnes went low in drafts because nobody expected it to happen again.

Brian Roberts without 2B elig? 10-15 more SB might cancel out that elig. since 2b isn't that shallow anyway, so that seems like a good spot to value Ellsbury at and Roberts normally went in the 3rd round this year.

I still think the Pierre with a little pop comparison is more accurate.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yoda » Wed May 21, 2008 7:32 pm

jfg wrote:I don't think he can be compared to Byrnes because this isn't a fluke. Eric Byrnes went low in drafts because nobody expected it to happen again.

Brian Roberts without 2B elig? 10-15 more SB might cancel out that elig. since 2b isn't that shallow anyway, so that seems like a good spot to value Ellsbury at and Roberts normally went in the 3rd round this year.


Well I always thought Roberts was overrated so he isn't a good comparison. Also, how do u figure 2B isn't shallow? The fact that he is on the Red Sox will boost his value as well. I want Ells to have a great season so that he gets taken early.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Sensei » Wed May 21, 2008 8:46 pm

Yoda wrote: I want Ells to have a great season so that he gets taken early.


How about one more post in here about how you want him to be taken early? 3 isn't quite enough.

If he touches 12 hr and maybe 60 sb's, I'd look for him in a redraft maybe 4th round tops. Cracked his 4th homer today, and in 135 ab's. If the clutter with Crisp is cleared up next year, some people would jump on him even earlier.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby The_Natural » Wed May 21, 2008 8:54 pm

I would rather draft Gomez before Ellsbury.
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