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Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jfg » Wed May 21, 2008 3:25 pm

I think you guys are selling him short on SB. 50 seems like the floor for him. He's been on first 52 times this year and has 18 stolen bases. He's been caught stealing once. If he keeps that up he could reach 70. If he does he'll be a 1st-2nd round pick.

I'm with all of you. I'm not touching a guy like that in the first three rounds without some power on top of that. But, if Reyes goes that high Ellsbury will too. Would you be surprised if they had very similar stats at the end of the year, maybe even stats that favor Ellsbury? Both, are stupid picks but the question is will he go that high not should he.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed May 21, 2008 3:29 pm

Inukchuk wrote: That said, it's tough to compare CC with Ellsbury aside from the fact that they both steal bases because they're not really that similar.

Well, yea. CC's a pitcher, Elsbury;s a hitter.

:-b :-D
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Yanks_Baby » Wed May 21, 2008 3:31 pm

I think Jacoby is a solid 6th or 7thround pick. But I'm not sure he;s worth anything more than that. There's an abundance of speed all of a sudden, I don't know where it's from, but it';s there, and that makes Ellsbury woth even less. Plus he's a rookie and could flop. Also, he has very little power. I'd say he should be drafted a little before Jaun pierre, because of the small power advantage he has over him. So he'll just crack the top 100.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Whisp » Wed May 21, 2008 3:33 pm

meanwhile crawford shouldn't be a 2nd rounder.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Another Blown Save » Wed May 21, 2008 3:50 pm

I'd imaine Ellsbury will be a .280-.290 hitter with a potential to hit .300-.310 regulary.
If he hits lead off, he's guaranteed to score at least 100 runs, and with the deep Red Sox lineup, he'll drive in at least 50 runs.
As long as he gets 500+ ABs, he will hit at least 10 HRs.
So the only thing left is SB. If he's given the green light everytime he's on 1st base, then I could easily see him topping 50 and potentially reaching 70 (yes, I said 70). I may be biased, but Ellsbury is probably the best base stealer in the game right now, better then Reyes. The question remaining is whether he gets the green light all the time or not. Right now, he has 18 SB in 134 ABs. If you expand that to 550 ABs, then he'd have 74 SBs.

Even though it's still early, I'm going to predict that in 2009 season, Ellsbury will be more valuable then Ichiro in fantasy baseball
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jfg » Wed May 21, 2008 3:55 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:
Even though it's still early, I'm going to predict that in 2009 season, Ellsbury will be more valuable then Ichiro in fantasy baseball


I don't even think that's a question. I'll go one step further and say he'll be the most valuable elite SB guy not named Hanley next year.

Still not touching him though.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Matthias » Wed May 21, 2008 4:14 pm

The earliest I would even not make fun of someone for taking Ellsbury next year is the 7th round, maybe higher an OBP league.

Crawford's and Reyes' draft position has always been based upon scarcity and promise.

Everyone has been waiting for the last 3 years for Crawford to really break out powerwise. After 2005 when he hit 15, it was thought, "Ok, he's getting into his power years... he could be a 25HR, 60steals guy" with good average, great runs, and good RBIs. It was a pretty unique skill set. And that never happened. At this point, I think people draft Crawford high because they're used to doing so, not that he actually gives you that kind of value.

With Reyes, three straight years of 60+ steals, and last year's 78, is pretty tough to ignore, especially at a kind of thin SS position. It was also thought this year that the Mets offense would be pretty decent so his Runs and RBIs would be high.

And both of these were being drafted high when steals was really rare, rare enough that they could single-handedly put you into the top 3 in a league. This year there's Bourn, there's Ellsbury, there's Hanley, there's Gomez, there's Ichiro ... stolen bases as a category is much deeper and so each steal is much less valuable.

So no, Ellsbury is not a 1st/2nd rounder next year. You're welcome to him if you want him, though.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby jfg » Wed May 21, 2008 4:24 pm

But, again the question is will he go there. If he gets 60-70 steals he will because people always reach for steals and "experts" will be drooling all over him as well.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby Inukchuk » Wed May 21, 2008 4:41 pm

Yanks_Baby wrote:
Inukchuk wrote: That said, it's tough to compare CC with Ellsbury aside from the fact that they both steal bases because they're not really that similar.

Well, yea. CC's a pitcher, Elsbury;s a hitter.

:-b :-D


Yeah, but you should see the big man rumbling toward 2B. Truly a sight to behold.
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Re: Ellsbury- 1st-2nd round pick next year?

Postby converge241 » Wed May 21, 2008 4:42 pm

I have seen this talk elsewhere as well but I couldnt justify either paying that myself for him or seriously expecting people in various leagues I am in to go that high.

I could certianly see him going high in the leagues i am in with others from MA but not that high
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