I think you guys are selling him short on SB. 50 seems like the floor for him. He's been on first 52 times this year and has 18 stolen bases. He's been caught stealing once. If he keeps that up he could reach 70. If he does he'll be a 1st-2nd round pick.
I'm with all of you. I'm not touching a guy like that in the first three rounds without some power on top of that. But, if Reyes goes that high Ellsbury will too. Would you be surprised if they had very similar stats at the end of the year, maybe even stats that favor Ellsbury? Both, are stupid picks but the question is will he go that high not should he.
I think Jacoby is a solid 6th or 7thround pick. But I'm not sure he;s worth anything more than that. There's an abundance of speed all of a sudden, I don't know where it's from, but it';s there, and that makes Ellsbury woth even less. Plus he's a rookie and could flop. Also, he has very little power. I'd say he should be drafted a little before Jaun pierre, because of the small power advantage he has over him. So he'll just crack the top 100.
I'd imaine Ellsbury will be a .280-.290 hitter with a potential to hit .300-.310 regulary. If he hits lead off, he's guaranteed to score at least 100 runs, and with the deep Red Sox lineup, he'll drive in at least 50 runs. As long as he gets 500+ ABs, he will hit at least 10 HRs. So the only thing left is SB. If he's given the green light everytime he's on 1st base, then I could easily see him topping 50 and potentially reaching 70 (yes, I said 70). I may be biased, but Ellsbury is probably the best base stealer in the game right now, better then Reyes. The question remaining is whether he gets the green light all the time or not. Right now, he has 18 SB in 134 ABs. If you expand that to 550 ABs, then he'd have 74 SBs.
Even though it's still early, I'm going to predict that in 2009 season, Ellsbury will be more valuable then Ichiro in fantasy baseball
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The earliest I would even not make fun of someone for taking Ellsbury next year is the 7th round, maybe higher an OBP league.
Crawford's and Reyes' draft position has always been based upon scarcity and promise.
Everyone has been waiting for the last 3 years for Crawford to really break out powerwise. After 2005 when he hit 15, it was thought, "Ok, he's getting into his power years... he could be a 25HR, 60steals guy" with good average, great runs, and good RBIs. It was a pretty unique skill set. And that never happened. At this point, I think people draft Crawford high because they're used to doing so, not that he actually gives you that kind of value.
With Reyes, three straight years of 60+ steals, and last year's 78, is pretty tough to ignore, especially at a kind of thin SS position. It was also thought this year that the Mets offense would be pretty decent so his Runs and RBIs would be high.
And both of these were being drafted high when steals was really rare, rare enough that they could single-handedly put you into the top 3 in a league. This year there's Bourn, there's Ellsbury, there's Hanley, there's Gomez, there's Ichiro ... stolen bases as a category is much deeper and so each steal is much less valuable.
So no, Ellsbury is not a 1st/2nd rounder next year. You're welcome to him if you want him, though.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.