Not enough of a track record for 1st round but he could be a 2nd/3rd rounder if his BA gets closer to .300 and keeps up his current pace everywhere else because he would basically have the same numbers as Carl Crawford.
Philliebuster wrote:I'd take him in the 4th at the earliest. He's more Pierre-esque, Reyes, Craw and Hanley have more power.
Pierre needed 700 at-bats to reach 3 home runs in '06, Ellsbury is already there. Hanley isn't in this conversation because he's miles above Crawford and Reyes in fantasy. The argument really is that if those guys get drafted that high and routinely put up numbers that match Ellsbury's current pace, shouldn't he go that high as well? The logical answer is no, taking him in the first 3 rounds is insane, but if he does end up with like 120 R, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 50 SB, .295, he could be preranked as a top 25 guy in expert rankings, regardless of the Cafe consensus viewing that as asinine.
Philliebuster wrote:I'd take him in the 4th at the earliest. He's more Pierre-esque, Reyes, Craw and Hanley have more power.
Pierre needed 700 at-bats to reach 3 home runs in '06, Ellsbury is already there. Hanley isn't in this conversation because he's miles above Crawford and Reyes in fantasy. The argument really is that if those guys get drafted that high and routinely put up numbers that match Ellsbury's current pace, shouldn't he go that high as well? The logical answer is no, taking him in the first 3 rounds is insane, but if he does end up with like 120 R, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 50 SB, .295, he could be preranked as a top 25 guy in expert rankings, regardless of the Cafe consensus viewing that as asinine.
Those numbers are evocative of Byrnes with less power but more runs, or the obvious comparison, Damon with more speed and less power. Comparisons to Craw are ridiculous, not all 5-tool outfielders are interchangeable with each other. That said, I think he's a good 4th round candidate if he puts up numbers like that, much like Byrnes if Byrnes wasn't a one-season wonder. And that's where he's probably going to be ranked, should he follow a production rate like the one you predict, which is a reasonable line to follow.
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I'd also say that Ellsbury is kind of a cross between a Juan Pierre and Johnny Damon type, a little more power than Pierre, but not the 20 HR type either. I'll concur that he'll be a 4th round type if he keeps things up, especially his average, if he can push it at .300 or over.
Well people always though Crawford's power would develop, but it never really did. If Jacoby can get his batting average up over 300 and he is scoring 110 runs, he will be a solid second/third rounder because his steals are going to be there.
Where would you draft a .305 BA, 115 run, 10 home run, 50 steal, 70 rbi guy?
Reyes has slightly more value due position.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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by jfg » Tue May 20, 2008 10:21 pm 
