So far tonight Ellsbury has used his wheels really well... getting a triple that looked easy on a hit to center and then stealing 2nd and 3rd after a walk. On the season now (and playing most days), he's hitting .278 with an OBP of .375, 3HRs, 34 Runs, 16 RBIs, and a near-perfect 18-for-19 on SBs. In the pre-season Median Draft Report, he was around 150th.
The runs, steals, and OBP are all excellent. The others are fairly mediocre but he hurts you much less than most speedsters. So has he increased his value in people's eyes? Stayed about the same? Or is he overrated with some East Coast bias?
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
I love Ellsbury and his speed. It will be interesting in the future to see if he power develops. But people who think he is a Scott Podsednik from 2005 are wrong. Jacoby is legit.
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Funny. He is actually comparing really well to Ichiro this year, but that's more because Ichiro is having a really down year average-wise; Ellsbury is at right about where people were predicting him.
For the sake of the comparison, though, here's the two players so far... AVG: .280 / .276 OBP: .340 / .377 AB: 186 / 134 H: 52/ 37 Runs: 30 / 35 RBI: 11 / 16 HR: 2 / 3 SB: 20 / 18
But by the end of the year, I expect Ichiro's AVG to be closer to .340.
Ultimately, though, it's not about comparing this player to that one; it's about wondering how much value one player is returning. I would guess that so far Ellsbury is ahead of projections in Steals and Runs without being behind in any others.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
I think right after the post season last year he was probably overrated since his sample size was so tiny. Now that he's played some (still not a whole lot, though), I think your seeing a guy who is gonna have some nice numbers the next couple years if the power develops. The only thing holding him back this year is the playing time situation, which will be figured out by the end of this year at the latest- hopefully sooner. Target him in a keeper league now or definitely have him on your draft list next year.
I don't think his power needs to develop any more. If he keeps that average close to .300, he's going to be a monster in that Boston lineup. Elite runs and speed with enough pop and RBIs not to be a liability. Big question with him is playing time.
interchange wrote:I don't think his power needs to develop any more. If he keeps that average close to .300, he's going to be a monster in that Boston lineup. Elite runs and speed with enough pop and RBIs not to be a liability. Big question with him is playing time.
One way or another, he'll get his ABs. Even if they hang on to Coco all season, the likelihood of Drew and Manny staying healthy all year is pretty slim. He'll get his 500 ABs, steal 40+ bags, and score 100+ runs. I'm betting he gets his BA up over .300 and hits 10 HRs as well.
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So, if Jacoby manages to keep this up for the rest of the season, where would you draft him? I am thinking somewhere late first or early second.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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by Matthias » Mon May 19, 2008 8:40 pm 
