Rather than start my own topic I'll bump this up. I'm pretty concerned about Francis, he has been riding my bench for a few starts now, and I know he has a pretty high ceiling but what is up with him? He seemed like he was on the right track to become a top of the rotation starter, but he has just been horrendous this season. I only saw one start (his last start against the Mets) and he did not look great, but I know I cannot judge him on that one start, any Rockies fans have any insight?
I don't think he ever had the talent to be a top of the rotation starter, a true No. 1 like Peavy or Webb or Smoltz in the NL. There's just nothing in his major league resume that indicates dominance to me...sure, last year he struck out 165. But that was in 215.1 IP. He won 17 games, went 9-4 in the second half. But that was when the Rockies as a team started hitting like 300/400/550 slugging and won 21 of 22 games at the end of the season.
All the Rockies were overpriced this season. I mean, Francis was 4.22 ERA/1.38 WHIP last season. He is barely roster-worthy and I didn't have him in the top-200 of my draft board.
That being said, he's had a lot of bad luck in putting up a 6.18 ERA/1.59 WHIP this season. He's more of a 4-flat ERA, 1.30-1.35 WHIP kind of guy. In real life, a solid starter and a valuable property--but for fantasy purposes, not so much.
j24jags wrote:Rather than start my own topic I'll bump this up. I'm pretty concerned about Francis, he has been riding my bench for a few starts now, and I know he has a pretty high ceiling but what is up with him? He seemed like he was on the right track to become a top of the rotation starter, but he has just been horrendous this season. I only saw one start (his last start against the Mets) and he did not look great, but I know I cannot judge him on that one start, any Rockies fans have any insight?
not only that but he was lit up by the Cardinals in the first game of the year (which was rained out). So hit line could be even worse!
[quote="freeling_prideful"]I don't think he ever had the talent to be a top of the rotation starter, a true No. 1 like Peavy or Webb or Smoltz in the NL. There's just nothing in his major league resume that indicates dominance to me...sure, last year he struck out 165. But that was in 215.1 IP. He won 17 games, went 9-4 in the second half. But that was when the Rockies as a team started hitting like 300/400/550 slugging and won 21 of 22 games at the end of the season.
All the Rockies were overpriced this season. I mean, Francis was 4.22 ERA/1.38 WHIP last season. He is barely roster-worthy and I didn't have him in the top-200 of my draft board.
That being said, he's had a lot of bad luck in putting up a 6.18 ERA/1.59 WHIP this season. He's more of a 4-flat ERA, 1.30-1.35 WHIP kind of guy. In real life, a solid starter and a valuable property--but for fantasy purposes, not so much.[/quote]
And the K rate is still there this season as well, which also bodes well (although BB has upticked a little). The real problem is that he is getting pounded on HRs like never before.
Overall, however, I think the above analysis is right. In a deeper league where a 4.00/1.35 guy with a decent K rate has value, Francis is probably a good risk to take right now.
I keep telling myself when Francis starts that "this will be the start where he turns it around", but it hasn't happened yet and I'm getting worried. I've noticed that his velocity has been down a bit from last year and he isn't locating his pitches as well either. I have faith that he'll eventually turn it around, and hopefully it's sooner rather than later.
TO the guy who said that he's not a top of the rotation guy and has never shown anything to be. He was Minor league player of the year a few years back. He's a very good and smart pitcher.
He's still youngish.
He's Mind F'n himself IMO and once he gets his mind on track he'll throw better. However, I think his ERA and Whip are more indicitive of course field then anything (Last year)
Actually, I keep hoping that they send him down to work things out in a more stress-free atmosphere to work things out. I do think he could be a very good third tier pitcher because opposing hitters the past few years have stated that he does not have overpowering stuff but still 6 innings later they're still struggling to string hits against him and score. Movement means more than velocity for francis and he just doesn't have it now.
acsguitar wrote:With Francis its all about movement and location.
TO the guy who said that he's not a top of the rotation guy and has never shown anything to be. He was Minor league player of the year a few years back. He's a very good and smart pitcher.
He's still youngish.
He's Mind F'n himself IMO and once he gets his mind on track he'll throw better. However, I think his ERA and Whip are more indicitive of course field then anything (Last year)
Yeah, I know he had an outstanding minor league career. But at this point, he's had 3 full major league seasons and nearly 700 IP in the bigs. It matters a lot less what he did 5 years ago given his mediocrity in the majors (career ERA 4.81, 1.44 WHIP). Also you can just watch him or read scouting reports--he has mediocre stuff (88-90 mph fastball, curve, unremarkable changeup) and like you said needs to locate his pitches. He's not a dominant pitcher who can just overwhelm hitters at times, and b/c of that won't be even a top-50 fantasy starter. I'm in a league that starts 9 P, though, and he does have some value there.
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by ROC AllStars » Mon May 19, 2008 9:29 am 
