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Matt Cain, time to drop?

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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby bigh0rt » Mon May 19, 2008 9:26 am

AdvRider wrote:Drop him? Heck, Cain was on my do not draft list. Sure, he shows flashes of brilliance, but with his history of erraticism, his general lucklessness, and that flaccid Giants offense, what's to like?

I know Cain is or can be a good to great pitcher -- living in S.F., I've seen plenty of his efforts -- but I just don't see him helping any fantasy manager win a trophy anytime soon. :-/

What's to like? How about a career 1.26 WHIP? 160 - 180 Ks per season (53 already in '08)? The fact that he's 23 years old? The fact that he plays in a weak hitting division in a pitchers' park?

He's nearly unhittable in August/September for his career, which is crunch time for Roto leagues and Playoffs for H2H leagues. I'll gladly take him off some of your guys' hands.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby markj11 » Mon May 19, 2008 9:26 am

Relentless wrote:
Cabby wrote:2 of the HR's he gave up tonight just barely made it out, they carried so much. Cabrera was actually disgusted with one of his HR, he thought he missed it but it just carried out. I am getting this from someone in another forum. I'm in a keeper so I am holding onto him and I am hoping he turns it around, his start earlier this week was actually quite good. I am finding that the Giants are leaving him in games too long also. I hope he turns it around though, he has been shaky by times but you might regret dropping him.

This guy explains it all. He was actually pitching a no-hitter through the 5th as I can remember watching the game (he was blowing everybody, even threw two 99 mph 4-seamers). Then suddenly, every fly ball that was hit just started to carry. BTW, the wind was also blowing out to left field, in which all the homeruns came from. In a regular day, those balls would be out.

If you're thinking of dropping this guy, then think again.


Drop him, this is the type of stuff you will hear all year, "he was doing good until", "he was being sqeezed", "the wind was blowing out". Someone will probably pick him up for one start because his name but they will drop him as soon as he gets "sqeezed" and has 5 BB in 4 innings. Definitely keep an eye on him b/c he will have a great second half. I had him last year twice and I drafted him this year but already dropped him (he has been picked twice and dropped). I will be picking him up after ASB.
Last edited by markj11 on Mon May 19, 2008 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Mon May 19, 2008 9:39 am

Even though these homers apparently were fairly lucky yesterday, it still isn't good to see that he's given up almost as many already (10) as he did all of last season (14).
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby Zhangman1 » Mon May 19, 2008 10:12 am

AquaMan2342 wrote:Even though these homers apparently were fairly lucky yesterday, it still isn't good to see that he's given up almost as many already (10) as he did all of last season (14).


The FB% is only slighly elevated compared to the HR/FB so it would seem the balls are carrying. I was able to get him of the WW so I don't have a lot invested. I'll give him a couple more starts to right the ship before I think about jumping ship.

Season GB/FB LD% GB% FB% HR/FB
2007 0.89 16.1 % 39.4 % 44.5 % 11.4 %
2008 0.67 21.7 % 31.4 % 46.9 % 18.3 %
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby Yoda » Mon May 19, 2008 10:58 am

Grounded Polo wrote:He's been awful in two consecutive first halves and then good in both second halves. I thought he was over his first half struggles by cutting back on his walks in the second half of '07, I was wrong, but I still wouldn't cut anybody that talented.


Agreed. Exactly my thoughts as well.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby Inukchuk » Mon May 19, 2008 11:20 am

Yoda wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:He's been awful in two consecutive first halves and then good in both second halves. I thought he was over his first half struggles by cutting back on his walks in the second half of '07, I was wrong, but I still wouldn't cut anybody that talented.


Agreed. Exactly my thoughts as well.


x2. He's been one I've actively pursued in the second half of the past 2 years and I plan on doing the same again this year...
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby rainman23 » Mon May 19, 2008 12:23 pm

I picked him up off waivers after his disastrous start last month, and I haven't had any regrets. Even yesterday's numbers would look pretty good if every hit they got didn't leave the yard. (I know -- "Other than that, how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?") This guy isn't in the neighborhood of where I start to panic...

Of course, I've been biding my time with Verlander for seven weeks, so my perspective may be hopelessly askew.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby Cabby » Mon May 19, 2008 12:41 pm

In a redraft, if you don't have the room or there is someone you really want to pick up, then drop him. Someone will pick him up and reap the benefits. Im in a keeper league so there is no way I am going to drop him. If anything I will wait till he throws together some good starts and then maybe sell high on him. This guy just has too much talent, he will turn it around. I understand people being frustrated because he may have cost you a few times but thats fantasy baseball.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby hot4tx » Mon May 19, 2008 12:54 pm

markj11 wrote:Definitely keep an eye on him b/c he will have a great second half. I had him last year twice and I drafted him this year but already dropped him (he has been picked twice and dropped). I will be picking him up after ASB.


If I thought I'd have a real chance of him being FA at the ASB I might think about dropping him, so I don't disagree with you in your situation. However, in most of the leagues I play in (12+ teams, seasoned managers) someone would definitely pick him up and keep him on the bench hoping for a great late run. So in my leagues I definitely wouldn't drop him. It's worth it for me to use a bench spot for the next 2 1/2 months for the potential down the stretch ace.
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Re: Matt Cain, time to drop?

Postby Ursa » Mon May 19, 2008 3:32 pm

Last year I traded Cain away for Adrian Beltre straight up. Most of the Cafe seemed to be pointing at me and laughing, some said I was nuts, stupid, whatever. This was a 16 team league so all decent SPs were rostered. My gut told me Beltre would be a huge upgrade and I could sub Cain by spot starting carefully.

I won the league - the trophy is grinning at me two feet away. Beltre was a large part of that.

However, I am again a Matt Cain owner this year and I feel less inclined to deal him than I did last year. He seems better to me.
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