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It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sun May 25, 2008 12:25 am

CBMGreatOne wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:Not sure if this is just a hot streak for Bay, but considering he was dumped in one of my leagues about a month ago and got him off a #6 waiver, more power if he does return to top 15-20 form.


I think people around these parts would settle for 75-100. He'll never be top 20 again.


I doubt it too, but as I said, I'll be happy with a .270, 30-35 HR campaign out of Bay. If you own Bay, I'd probably recommend that you shop him while he's in good form.
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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun May 25, 2008 12:56 am

LostInTheSauce wrote:
Yeah he's taken the next step and that step was backwards. How can you post those stats, and ignore last years?


I didnt ignore anything. I stated in my post that he was hurt last year. The 2 years before that he was as good of an outfielder as you could find. The guys is a stud! I dont get all this 40 homer talk either as if you cant be considered elite unless you hit 40 homers. I can think of a ton of guys who are or were considered elite at there position who never hit 40 homers.

I say he easily is a top 15 this year and anyone who would make the statement that he never will be again is silly.


His upside is as a top 15-20 OF, and TheAD's comment was meant as an overall top 15-20 (I believe anyway, and that's what I meant if that's not what AD meant). Anyone who says it's silly to say that he will never again be a top 15-20 overall player is a good deal more than silly.

Anything is, of course, possible, but I don't see a total career renaissance on the horizon, just a patented Jason Bay mini-hot streak, which he put up even when he was merely top 40ish.

I flipped him along with Fukudome for Corey Hart and Joe Blow, so I'm no longer invested, so you're welcome to accuse me of bias.
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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby activechamp2006 » Sun May 25, 2008 1:22 am

The Artful Dodger wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:Not sure if this is just a hot streak for Bay, but considering he was dumped in one of my leagues about a month ago and got him off a #6 waiver, more power if he does return to top 15-20 form.


I think people around these parts would settle for 75-100. He'll never be top 20 again.


I doubt it too, but as I said, I'll be happy with a .270, 30-35 HR campaign out of Bay. If you own Bay, I'd probably recommend that you shop him while he's in good form.


I agree with your predictions but I still see upside in Bay. He may not be a top 15 player again, but with the support of Mclouth in the lineup I could see Bay returning to a top 30 player. He's never had the support of another potential power hitter like that of Mclouth. Not to mention the Pirates are actually playing like a pretty solid team. A 280 35-100-100 with 15 sb's season isn't out of the question.
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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby AllDay » Sun May 25, 2008 6:33 am

I would be disappointed if he were a top 75-100 player. He has much more potential than that.

Top 25 so far on Yahoo! - and this during a discussion about when he takes the next step.

Top 15-20 doesn't sound so silly any more.
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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sun May 25, 2008 2:09 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:I think people around these parts would settle for 75-100. He'll never be top 20 again.


I doubt it too, but as I said, I'll be happy with a .270, 30-35 HR campaign out of Bay. If you own Bay, I'd probably recommend that you shop him while he's in good form.


I agree with your predictions but I still see upside in Bay. He may not be a top 15 player again, but with the support of Mclouth in the lineup I could see Bay returning to a top 30 player. He's never had the support of another potential power hitter like that of Mclouth. Not to mention the Pirates are actually playing like a pretty solid team. A 280 35-100-100 with 15 sb's season isn't out of the question.


Yeah, I think that's my point. Bay would be worth the 6th-7th round pick if he posts .270-280, 35 HR, but also because he could have some additional upside based off '04-06 to suggest he can marginally improve from the best conservative projection. Do I have doubts that he keeps this up? Sure, but I think what's most encouraging is that he's the healthiest he has been in quite some time. Again, I'll still be really content with .270, 35 HR, being burned as a Bay owner last season and knowing I got him off waivers this year at no contest.
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Re: It seems Jason Bay will never take that next step...

Postby tmlfan4ever » Sun May 25, 2008 9:02 pm

The only thing holding back him value right now is the lack of RBI which I don't believe is really his fault. Otherwise, a .280ish average, 12 homers and 5 steals puts him on pace for a 30+HR 15+SB season which, considering where he was drafted in 2008, is HUGE value.
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