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Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby RedHopeful » Sat May 17, 2008 2:56 am

buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:I sold on Uggla. Here's the thing: you guys are all saying that he's got 30-35 HR power. He's already hit 12. SO that means he's got 20 or so left... and the rest of his game isn't going to be anything special. In the deal, I gave up Uggla and Eric Byrnes and got back Kent, Wainwright, and Kerry Wood....


Terrible trade. Among other things, Byrnes will heat up while Kent will end up on the DL.

I agree with Snakes that you guys are much too high on him hitting for a good average considering his K rate and last years beauty. Always sell high if u can!
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby Benjn » Sat May 17, 2008 3:24 am

I'd expect a season line right around his other two seasons... 30 HR, 90 RBI, .250-.280 AVG (probably right in the middle).

His production will wain from here on out.

Try to sell high on him for another 2B (Uggla for B Roberts, or BJ Upton). If your team needs power, I'd hold on Uggla - he'll be #1 or 2 in RBI and HR coming out of the 2B slot. But speed is pretty plentiful from that spot.

Right now, I'm shopping Uggla for speed. :)

And I'd say that the Byrnes/Uggla trade wasn't even close to "selling high" on him. Not a fan of that trade at all.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby spacehamster01 » Sat May 17, 2008 3:28 am

So by my math, Uggla has averaged 20.5 HRs after May the past 2 seasons. Considering he is now older, stronger, more experienced, I assume he can get probably 21-25ish HRs after this month (especially if he can keep a higher average, like .280, unlike last year when he only batted about .240 after May)...and this month still has 14 more days in it. By that math, lets say he hits at least 2 more HRs in May...and then continues to hit...23 Hrs for the rest of the year...that ends him with 13+2+23 = 38 HRs?

So 38 HRs. At age 28.

Okay, then average. He has hit .250 after May in his career. Considering he has never had this great of a start, well actually he batted .313 through his rookie year (I assume because pitchers hadn't adjusted to him yet), but anyway...he was only batting .264 through May last year. Now that he has seen 2 full years of MLB pitching, has gotten experience, , why isn't it safe to assume he could potentially hit .270-.280 the remainder of the season?

Also, considering he is hitting at the #5 spot, and without MCab there now, his RBI totals should go up, with Hanley and Mike Jacobs and Hermida in front of him.

With all that said...if he hit .275 the remainder of the season and assuming within 600 ABs, he would end up with an average of: .285

So based on my analysis, he would end up with something like this:

35-38 HRs, 95+ RBI, .285

Not bad for someone I picked up of Waivers the first day of May.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat May 17, 2008 7:50 am

I'm surprised that people will buy high on Uggla but he's still a guy I'm keeping around because I'll try selling high on guys that are easily replaced like 1B and OF, but 2B isn't easy to fill, especially one that give 30 homers. A .270 average would be nice.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby ROC AllStars » Sat May 17, 2008 8:59 am

RedHopeful wrote:Always sell high if u can!


So would you have sold Ryan Braun after 3 weeks last year? Or Albert Pujols after his first month in the majors? I'm wary of any advice to "always" do anything... the fantasy baseball world, much like the real world, is never a black and white picture. There are exceptions to every rule, which is why we have conversations like this, and a massive post on sell high/buy low candidates in the DTWK formum.
"This guy leads the league in most offensive categories, including nose hair..."
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sat May 17, 2008 1:20 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:i dont see his average being .280. not in the least. i think you'd be lucky for it to be anywhere near .265-.270.


Yeah, I don't see Uggla posting a .280 average either. He'll regress more likely to a .250-260 hitter by year's end. I don't see the 30 HR possibility as a mirage, but now is a good time to sell high to get the best possible value with him overperforming. That said, with 2B as shallow as it is, there's no harm in retaining him either.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby Ursa » Sat May 17, 2008 2:46 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:. That said, with 2B as shallow as it is, there's no harm in retaining him either.

I think this is a very important point. Any sell high trade would have to include a 2B coming to you because the 2B WW isn't exactly stacked with production. If you're going to sell high, you'll need a package coming back.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Sat May 17, 2008 2:51 pm

Ursa wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:. That said, with 2B as shallow as it is, there's no harm in retaining him either.

I think this is a very important point. Any sell high trade would have to include a 2B coming to you because the 2B WW isn't exactly stacked with production. If you're going to sell high, you'll need a package coming back.


...or if you have an adequate 2B replacement to fall back on.
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby Oatsdad » Sat May 17, 2008 4:43 pm

I'm definitely trying to sell high. I grabbed him off waivers in my 10-team league a few weeks ago and I really don't need him since I already have Kinsler at 2B.

One other owner is hot for him. He already offered Votto and Brandon Phillips for him, but that doesn't do much for my needs. Trying to wheedle HanRam out of him - threw Uggla and Yunel Escobar for HanRam his way and we'll see if he salutes...
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Re: Dan "The Man" Uggla: Sell High or Hold?

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat May 17, 2008 4:51 pm

Oatsdad wrote:I'm definitely trying to sell high. I grabbed him off waivers in my 10-team league a few weeks ago and I really don't need him since I already have Kinsler at 2B.

One other owner is hot for him. He already offered Votto and Brandon Phillips for him, but that doesn't do much for my needs. Trying to wheedle HanRam out of him - threw Uggla and Yunel Escobar for HanRam his way and we'll see if he salutes...


You already had him robbed blind.
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