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3 for Werth

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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Eradicator » Sat May 17, 2008 10:53 am

DaShiz23 wrote:I guess all these teams picking him up beleive his stats will be retroactive. Good work! :-D


Or could possibly be that he was the #1 rated FA in those leauges before last night and had not been more widely owned because of a supposed platoon status with crappy Geoff Jenkins and last night was a subtle indication that the platoon may well be ending?

Dunno, just a thought.


An interesting experpt from Jason Grey on ESPN fantasy on 5/12 (kinda long)-

Right now for mixed leagues, Jayson Werth's just a spot starter against lefties if you have daily transactions, but he could be more if the Phillies let him. He's platooning with Geoff Jenkins in right field and backing up Shane Victorino in center, but with Jenkins' underwhelming production, Werth could get more playing time as the season progresses, especially because he has six homers and five stolen bases in fewer than 100 at-bats. He's quietly getting it done when he gets a chance to play.



While there's been a lot of hype about Ryan Ludwick's early performance lately, Werth's doesn't take a backseat.




Jayson Werth's wrist is finally close to sound, which would explain some of his rebound this season.
That's not bad for a guy who thought his career was finished two seasons ago.



After homering 16 times in just 290 at-bats in 2004, Werth was ready for a big season with the Dodgers in 2005 as a power-hitting outfielder. Then in the first spring training game, he was plunked on the wrist by an A.J. Burnett fastball. Little did he know at the time that it essentially would cost him three seasons of production. It was a perfect storm of a Burnett fastball hitting in exactly the wrong spot at the wrong time, just as Werth was checking his swing, and everything was shifting back in the other direction.



"I got misdiagnosed by the Dodgers," said Werth. "Originally they said I had an avulsion fracture of the radius and that I would be OK in two weeks. I was on the disabled list for six weeks, and it wasn't any better. I basically played all of 2005 in excruciating pain. I had a surgery at the end of '05 that was pointless because of the wrong diagnosis."



The first surgery only made the wrist worse. "Before, I could at least swing the bat with a lot of pain, but after the surgery I couldn't swing at all," said Werth.



One surgery and 12 cortisone shots later, Werth had not played an inning in 2006 and still had no answers when he went to the Mayo Clinic later in the year.



"I thought I was done. My hand couldn't even swing a bat lightly."



Without treading too much into Stephania Bell's territory, Werth had suffered a split tear of the UT (ulnotriquetral) ligament in his wrist. It's an injury that is often misdiagnosed as inflammation because on an MRI the joint appears entirely structurally stable because the ligament is still attached. However, it is split open lengthwise and is extremely painful. You don't know what the problem is unless you're looking for it.



Thankfully, the Mayo Clinic's Dr. Richard Berger was the one doctor in the country who had discovered this type of injury and knew what he was looking for. He was the only one who performed the surgery to repair the tear, an injury usually seen in bowlers, golfers and tennis players.



"If I hadn't found him on my own, I'd probably still be screwed up," said Werth.



Werth came back for 2007, and though some lingering recovery issues pushed him to the disabled list for a bit last season, Werth is healthy and productive this year. His swing mechanics are still the same after the injury, but he swings a completely different bat now. It's not as heavy and doesn't have a knob.



"It wasn't until this spring training that it really started feeling good, but there's still some stuff in there once in a while," said Werth. "I feel confident. It's not painful. I don't think it will ever have the pre-injury strength, but I have no problem with where it's at. I can still be a productive player, but I feel like I'll never have the power production I could have had."


Werth might be shortchanging himself. In his last pre-injury season, his 16 dingers represented a homer every 18 at-bats. This season, he has a homer every 16.5 at-bats. His homers as a percentage of his fly balls are also slightly higher compared to that 2004 campaign. He's hitting .252 but has a low average on balls in play, and he has the ability of a .280-.290 hitter. He's been kind of pigeonholed a bit as a platoon player, but I have no doubt he could outperform Jenkins against right-handed pitching if given full-time at-bats. He possibly could steal 20 bases in the process. He does clearly mash lefties better, but he will hit righties well enough.



"I can still have a successful career, but I'm just a different player now," said Werth.



Actually, he might be exactly the player he used to be -- the one who showed so much promise in 2004 -- and that's a good thing. He's owned in just 17 percent of ESPN leagues, but if you need help in the outfield, he's a player who deserves strong consideration in the hopes of more at-bats in the future.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Crystalstorm » Sat May 17, 2008 2:17 pm

DaShiz23 wrote:I guess all these teams picking him up beleive his stats will be retroactive. Good work! :-D

I love it when people drop better players because of one great night,for players such as Werth.For some reason they think those #'s are retroactive.They have it in there head that the one great night will repeat itself.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat May 17, 2008 2:35 pm

Anyone remember Mark Whiten?

No?

OK then.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Zhangman1 » Sat May 17, 2008 3:44 pm

Crystalstorm wrote:
DaShiz23 wrote:I guess all these teams picking him up beleive his stats will be retroactive. Good work! :-D

I love it when people drop better players because of one great night,for players such as Werth.For some reason they think those #'s are retroactive.They have it in there head that the one great night will repeat itself.


Guys come out of no where every year. I took a flyer on Werth AFTER his 3HR game over other higher ranked FAs like Andruw Jones, Swisher, Thome. In no way do I expect him ever to do that again, but he's a serviceable OF who I think will be getting more ABs in a potent lineup in a hitter's park. Part of being a GM is taking chances on guys you never thought to have drafted.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby DaShiz23 » Sat May 17, 2008 3:53 pm

happens every year. call me in a week or two when you drop him.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby OdeToNo1 » Sat May 17, 2008 4:20 pm

Everybody has it all figured out.

Get a frigging grip, people. Werth has been productive when given a chance to play this year, nobody can deny that. He's worthy of a bench spot in deeper leagues, its just that simple. I'm not saying there is a place for him on EVERY team, but I guarantee someone in your league is holding on to some trash that has less value than Jayson Werth at this point...
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Oatsdad » Sat May 17, 2008 4:28 pm

Why are folks acting like Werth is a one-night wonder? He's having a great season - he's ranked 29th on Yahoo for the year. I dunno what he'll do the rest of 2008, but he's done well so far. Last night simply more firmly put him on various fantasy radars...
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat May 17, 2008 4:54 pm

Oatsdad wrote:Why are folks acting like Werth is a one-night wonder? He's having a great season - he's ranked 29th on Yahoo for the year. I dunno what he'll do the rest of 2008, but he's done well so far. Last night simply more firmly put him on various fantasy radars...

I checked last night during the game, he was ranked 92 before the 3-HR game. Derosa, Ludwick, Murphy, and Emil Brown were all ahead of him. Are they going to be relevant in September? Doubtful.
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby Zhangman1 » Sat May 17, 2008 6:20 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
Oatsdad wrote:Why are folks acting like Werth is a one-night wonder? He's having a great season - he's ranked 29th on Yahoo for the year. I dunno what he'll do the rest of 2008, but he's done well so far. Last night simply more firmly put him on various fantasy radars...

I checked last night during the game, he was ranked 92 before the 3-HR game. Derosa, Ludwick, Murphy, and Emil Brown were all ahead of him. Are they going to be relevant in September? Doubtful.


where were Hart and Hawpe ranked last year? or Quentin at the beginning of this year. Yea, all those guys are younger and have more upside than Werth, but my point is players breakout every year. Why is everyone dismissing Werth like he's a flash in the pan?
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Re: 3 for Werth

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sat May 17, 2008 7:42 pm

Werth also had a stretch earlier this year where he had 4 HR in 5 games. He's not just some anonymous chump. It was pretty hard for me to ignore the 4 HRs in 5 games, but I did. Throw in a 3 HR game and of course he's a reasonable add. Some owners jumped relatively early on Jack Cust last season and he was a very good source of late season power.

In 2003, Geoff Jenkins had a pretty good year that was sort of kick started by a 3 HR game like Werth's from tonight. I think I remember a 3 HR game early in Morgan Ensberg's career year of 2004.

Sometimes even otherwise useless players can get on a sustained hot streak that can be very valuable to a fantasy team if you know when to cut bait.

There's really no upside to just ignoring Werth altogether, even if you don't have roster space for him right now.
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