The theory that improved offense somehow equates to fewer save chances is a myth. I see almost NO merit to it at all.
You are better off getting save chances when your team is winning, and you have a better chance to win when your team is scoring runs. How many teams do you think consistently score more than three runs more than their opponents? Some do it often sure, but it's never an average margin of victory.
Look at Smoltz with Atlanta, before he got hurt, he was on pace for the record for saves in a single season. Last time I checked the Atlanta lineup was pretty sick last year.
If you have some designs on using the improved offense theory as a reason not to draft a particular closer, just get it out of your head right now. It holds no water, PERIOD.